WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

NAVGEM also to ~ 904 MB, around hour 150

[Highteeld]

Appreciable shift south in the 12z euro today at hour 48 vs yday's 12z Euro at hour 72. Much more intense over the Marianas Islands as well.

[Highteeld]

Hi-res euro down to 904.9 mb at hour 90.

[Highteeld]

TPPN10 PGTW 051823

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (E OF GUAM)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 15.12N

D. 157.67E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/18HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[Highteeld]

Would ~ be a simulated T 7.5 based off this imagery

[Highteeld]

JTWC increased:

20W TWENTY 191005 1800 15.3N 157.8E WPAC 35 1003

[1900hurricane]

JMA has a FT of 2.0 at 18Z. They do name sometimes at that T, but not all the time. We'll find out in the next few minutes.

*EDIT: They're taking a little longer than usual, so I'm guessing they're upgrading.

[Hayabusa]

Hagibis is here

TS 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 19:15 UTC, 5 October 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 5 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°05' (15.1°)
E158°10' (158.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

[cycloneye]

They did.

TS 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 19:15 UTC, 5 October 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 5 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°05' (15.1°)
E158°10' (158.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E154°50' (154.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 6 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°55' (15.9°)
E151°35' (151.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 7 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°05' (17.1°)
E145°20' (145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 8 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N19°00' (19.0°)
E140°10' (140.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 930 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°35' (20.6°)
E137°25' (137.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 600 km (325 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N22°55' (22.9°)
E134°25' (134.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 750 km (400 NM)

[1900hurricane]

TS 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 19:15 UTC, 5 October 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 5 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°05' (15.1°)
E158°10' (158.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E154°50' (154.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 6 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°55' (15.9°)
E151°35' (151.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 7 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°05' (17.1°)
E145°20' (145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 8 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N19°00' (19.0°)
E140°10' (140.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 930 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°35' (20.6°)
E137°25' (137.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 600 km (325 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N22°55' (22.9°)
E134°25' (134.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 750 km (400 NM)

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/FxjmhL9.png

TS 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 19:15 UTC, 5 October 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 5 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°05' (15.1°)
E158°10' (158.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 6 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E154°50' (154.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 6 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°55' (15.9°)
E151°35' (151.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 7 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°05' (17.1°)
E145°20' (145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 170 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 8 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N19°00' (19.0°)
E140°10' (140.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 930 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 9 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°35' (20.6°)
E137°25' (137.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 600 km (325 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 10 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N22°55' (22.9°)
E134°25' (134.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 750 km (400 NM)

Not often you see the first full JMA advisory with a Violent Typhoon as the official forecast. Perhaps unprecedented?

[1900hurricane]

I'm not sure if unprecedented, but it's very rare at the least. Worth noting that 4 and 5 day intensity forecasts are new for them this year though.

[Hayabusa]

955 mb over the Marianas, it's kind of like Mangkhut/Yutu part 2 for them, even more similar if it tracks more south.

[1900hurricane]

[Highteeld]

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Liking the new JTWC website look:

Loving the new warning graphic with intensity included in every point.

That really made me smile when they first started doing it with Tapah.

[1900hurricane]

The center looks near 14.7ºN, 156.6ºE (approximately) based on a recent GPM pass. Very intense convection is firing in that area.

[Highteeld]

The center looks near 14.7ºN, 156.6ºE (approximately) based on a recent GPM pass. Very intense convection is firing in that area.

https://i.imgur.com/SDUQL9M.png

https://i.imgur.com/yrdSZzK.png

https://i.imgur.com/U12SYpv.png

Nice spiral. Probably stronger than 35 knots already.

[1900hurricane]