WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

SATCON increasing faster. Very likely a typhoon now.



CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10060858
SATCON: MSLP = 969 hPa MSW = 76 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 74.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 82 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 250 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

[Highteeld]

20W
TROPICAL STORM 20W 6:00UTC 06October2019
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from JTWC) :
Latitude : 15:08:02 N
Longitude : 153:54:31 E
Intensity (MSLP) : 991.0 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 858.0 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 133.0 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 2.8 m/s ( 5.4 kts)
Direction : 53.0 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF VF VF VF

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.5 -6.0 - -3.0 -9.0 - -4.5 -12.0 - -6.0
N -1.5 - +1.5 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.5 - +4.5 -6.0 - +6.0
U +1.5 - +3.0 +3.0 - +6.0 +4.5 - +9.0 +6.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0

- Current shear charts for the NORTHWEST PACIFIC BASIN can be found at :
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=
- Additional information about this product can be found at :
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/misc ... s.shr.html
- Contact : Chris Velden (chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu)
CIMSS Internal Code : Basin - westpac Storm - 20W

[Highteeld]

20W HAGIBIS 191006 1200 14.5N 152.3E WPAC 55 992

So I've been using this link here for best track data, but you got the 12z update before the link I have been using did... where did you pull that from?
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil//tcdat/tc19/WPAC/20W.HAGIBIS/trackfile.txt

[Nancy Smar]

20W HAGIBIS 191006 1200 14.5N 152.3E WPAC 55 992

So I've been using this link here for best track data, but you got the 12z update before the link I have been using did... where did you pull that from?
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil//tcdat/tc19/WPAC/20W.HAGIBIS/trackfile.txt

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/amsu/herndon/new_sector_file

[Highteeld]

20W HAGIBIS 191006 1200 14.5N 152.3E WPAC 55 992

So I've been using this link here for best track data, but you got the 12z update before the link I have been using did... where did you pull that from?
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil//tcdat/tc19/WPAC/20W.HAGIBIS/trackfile.txt

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/amsu/herndon/new_sector_file

Thanks!

[Nancy Smar]

So I've been using this link here for best track data, but you got the 12z update before the link I have been using did... where did you pull that from?
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil//tcdat/tc19/WPAC/20W.HAGIBIS/trackfile.txt

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/amsu/herndon/new_sector_file

Thanks!

Not at all.

[euro6208]

Improving rapidly. That outflow is ridiculous!

[Highteeld]

Improving rapidly. That outflow is ridiculous!

https://i.imgur.com/Ykhv56W.gif

The rate of development reminds me of hurricane Maria from 2017 before it nailed Dominica as a cat 5.

[Hayabusa]

STS 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 6 October 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 6 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°25' (14.4°)
E152°50' (152.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

[euro6208]

[Nancy Smar]

WP, 20, 2019100612, , BEST, 0, 145N, 1524E, 50, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 55, 30, 30, 40, 1005, 250, 20, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAGIBIS, M,

Down to 50kt

[Highteeld]

JTWC is putting themselves into a corner by not breaking constraints earlier. Microwave imagery clearly would indicate this is a good time to do so. They're going to be dragging their feet big time if this thing explodes soon, and the real max intensity could be missed; Manghut last year had a max intensity rated during an ERC, which makes no sense meteorologically due constraints not being broken when they should have been.

[Highteeld]

This is probably more accurate:

[euro6208]

A tale of two.

GFS has far stronger winds and more widespread than EURO at CPA for the Islands.

[euro6208]

Up up up! Wish JTWC was as proactive as NHC. *looks at the satcon history for dorian and lorenzo*

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10061103
SATCON: MSLP = 965 hPa MSW = 90 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 90.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 86 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 250 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

Member Estimates

ADT: 995 hPa 51 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT061210
CIMSS AMSU: 958 hPa 106 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10061103
ATMS: 990.2 hPa 51.4 knots Date: 10060221
SSMIS: 974.0 hPa 84.0 knots Date: 10060749
CIRA ATMS: 991 hPa 46 knots Date:

[Highteeld]

MPI (knots) +Upper Divergence + Track

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC keeps it at 50kts at 12Z.

[euro6208]

Southward shift continues. This is going to be really close. Plus it's likely getting underestimated big time. Should see it stronger by then.

[doomhaMwx]

UKMET is not the only one that has been going sub 900mb with this.
Korean global model:

[Highteeld]

So at what point do we (speaking collectively as forecasters) change the scene type from CDO to Embedded Center? Seems like it would be prudent to do so in short order ~