2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SFLcane]

Is it me or does the 12zGFS form this well NE of its previous runs

Edit: indeed forms this 150mi NE of the last several runs, much more dangerous position

And even with that more dangerous position, it still turns out to be a nothingburger for the US as it gets buried into C America while a second TC tries to form to its east over the NW Caribbean. Interesting.

Yep, gfs last couple of runs keeps high pressure and buries this into CA. Even if it develops might not be a problem for the US.

[gatorcane]

ICON forms a low more to the NE heading slowly WNW south of Jamaica, looks like it has this heading for the NW Caribbean:

[SFLcane]

Might add GFS is delaying genesis again not pushing past D7 now

[LarryWx]

Through 264 hours, it looks like around 10-11 of the 51 EPS members develop a TC in the Western Caribbean. I believe this is the biggest signal for potential development that the EPS has shown so far.

Edit: Some move west into Central America, but the majority move north west and end up moving into the GOM or over Cuba. Obviously this far out any tracks are still highly suspect.

This fairly sharp increase in EPS activity to ~20% of members along with the GEFS finally showing signs of progressing/sticking with a busy 0Z on 10/18 is now starting to get me a bit concerned. That doesn't mean I think we should panic though. It just bares watching a bit more than it did earlier imo.

For example, here is the 0Z GEFS for 0Z on 10/18, my benchmark timeframe:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019100600/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_49.png

Since I made this post, two things happened:

1. The 0Z EPS is a good bit quieter than that prior (12Z) run, which had 20% concerning members. This run has way fewer. Was that run just an aberration? Nobody knows.

2. The 6Z GEFS is less threatening than the 0Z as of my benchmark time, 0Z on 10/18, with fewer strong members:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019100606/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_48.png

The 12Z GEFS for 0Z on 10/18 is less threatening than the 6Z, which was less threatening than the 0Z. It has only 3-4 (15-20%) of members sub 999 mb vs ~5 (25%) on each of the 3 prior runs and only one (5%) that is sub 991 mb, which is fewer than the 2 (10%) of 6Z and the ~4 (20%) of the 0Z and 18Z. Also, the mean TC is a little further south in the NW Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

Thought I’d post this here to..I just don’t know in terms of the Caribbean as the Euro still silent in this area.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1180903692414996483

[Aric Dunn]

Surface Circ has formed east of the bahamas quite a big south and earlier than the models. probably going to make it to FL before turning..

slightly elongated still as it has just formed the last several hours.

Models will adjust. should be interesting to watch.. likely going to be sub tropical at least initially.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Consistency from the GFS plus the very strong ensemble support and climatology leads me to lean more towards the GFS solution. ECMWF might be struggling with the MJO.

[LarryWx]

Consistency from the GFS plus the very strong ensemble support and climatology leads me to lean more towards the GFS solution. ECMWF might be struggling with the MJO.

Actually, the 12Z Euro has a weak low moving NW into Belize at 240 (12Z on 10/16).

[gatorcane]

12Z EPS has come to life again with SW Caribbean development. Most of the lows go inland into CA. If this expansive ridge does come to fruition over the Gulf and Florida, how timely it would be given climo suggests something forming should head NW towards the NW Caribbean. Surprised there is no trough to break down this ridge given it would be mid October.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS has come to life again with SW Caribbean development. Most of the lows go inland into CA. If this expansive ridge does come to fruition over the Gulf and Florida, how timely it would be given climo suggests something forming should head NW towards the NW Caribbean. Surprised there is no trough to break down this ridge given it would be mid October.

Indeed, Gator, the 12Z EPS is much more active than the 0Z and looks like yesterday’s 12Z with once again ~20% of the members at sub 999 mb.

[gatorcane]

Euro with a stout ridge that would block anything in the SW Carib from heading north, though this is long-range:

[NDG]

Little by little the Euro is going to be coming along with the GFS and other models. IMO.

[SFLcane]

Euro with a stout ridge that would block anything in the SW Carib from heading north, though this is long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/mZP85Z05/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-watl-10.png

How it's been all summer with US ridge Atlantic trough.

[psyclone]

WPC QPF output, which was generous over the southern gulf a few days back no longer is. Today's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks now show normal to below normal precip over Florida at what is already a dry time of the year. This throws a massive bucket of cold water on late season chicanery...at least impacting Florida. At this point it looks like the most likely scenario is either A.) nothing or B.) a system that slowly trudges into Central America. My earlier expectations of a western Caribbean cane are looking to be built upon increasingly shaky ground

[EquusStorm]

Can't forget November is still a thing even if conditions aren't great the next few weeks; probably not for the US but it's done some nasty stuff in the Caribbean in this active cycle

[NDG]

Euro with a stout ridge that would block anything in the SW Carib from heading north, though this is long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/mZP85Z05/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-watl-10.png

Past 5-6 days the Euro is not that good with height forecasts, way too early to say what is going to be the sypnotic set up across the southern US 7-10 days from now.

[SFLcane]

Euro with a stout ridge that would block anything in the SW Carib from heading north, though this is long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/mZP85Z05/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-watl-10.png

Past 5-6 days the Euro is not that good with height forecasts, way too early to say what is going to be the sypnotic set up across the southern US 7-10 days from now.

https://i.imgur.com/NBtZDku.gif

GFS has something similar.

[gatorcane]

Ut oh 18Z GFS. Ridge is much weaker allowing a path north.

[SFLcane]

Ut oh 18Z GFS. Ridge is much weaker allowing a path north.

This makes much more sense upper steering wise climo.

[SFLcane]