WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

Eye still warming, as seen by subtle changes on "Enhanced IR" where the green pixels are fading. Starting to think this is the "Wilma" of the West Pacific

[Highteeld]

He did the same with Yutu just sayin

Yutu could have possibly gotten there if the ERC wouldn't have happened that night. Just needed a few hours more/ADT Raw ~ 7.9.

[1900hurricane]

ok so 00Z SATCON and AMSU are suggesting 961 mb and 941 mb respectively, I would say Hagibis is at least around 950 mb now.

2019 WP 20 279.965 2019OCT06 231000 15.21 -149.75 2 961 89

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TYPHOON 20W
Sunday 06oct19 Time: 2127 UTC
Latitude: 15.07 Longitude: 150.29
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 7 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 941 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 109 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 9mb +/- 10kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -5.9 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.11
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 1.49
RMW: 9 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1005
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 10 Day: 06 Time (UTC): 1800

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

I ran KZC with 18Z best track stuff and the ~950 mb estimate and got an estimate of 109.9 kt using the 108 nm r34 and 107.5 kt using the 250 nm rOCI. I might go 105 kt based on expanding size (00Z data will probably be a little large than 18Z) for that pressure.

[1900hurricane]

LG in the eye now.

[Highteeld]

LG in the eye now.

https://i.imgur.com/FUsEMhh.png

Instantaneous T 6.5, right?

[1900hurricane]

LG in the eye now.

https://i.imgur.com/FUsEMhh.png

Instantaneous T 6.5, right?

Yep. Time to break constraints and start using a 3 or 6 hour average DT for the FT.

[Highteeld]

That is a tiny eye. Definitely a pinhole eye scenario

[mrbagyo]

[Highteeld]

That looks better

20W HAGIBIS 191007 0000 15.1N 149.5E WPAC 90 967

[euro6208]

Looking like a disaster for Saipan and Tinian. People there are still living in tents!

[euro6208]

Definitely ramping up this morning. When I first saw that 75 knots BT, Iwas disappointed but then it was revised to 90 knots. I was like even better.

With a pinhole like that, it is a lot stronger. I'm thinking around 110 to 115 knots now.

[Highteeld]

Really nice structure in that eye already. Probably getting ready to show us some "warmer shades of grey" (horrible pun, i know)

[Hayabusa]

TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 7 October 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 7 October>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N15°05' (15.1°)
E149°35' (149.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 650 km (350 NM)
W 440 km (240 NM)

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 070022

A. TYPHOON 20W (E OF GUAM)

B. 06/2340Z

C. 15.11N

D. 149.52E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. W EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. SUBTRACTED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG TO
YIELD A DT OF 5.0. MET IS 4.0. PT IS 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[Highteeld]

Blue pixels coming in. Probably just minutes away from a T 7.0

[Highteeld]

Blue pixels coming in. Probably just minutes away from a T 7.0

https://i.imgur.com/zMnTkRB.png

This is getting comical

[1900hurricane]

ADT will find the eye eventually. Probably.

[Highteeld]

Savage:

[Highteeld]

Savage:

https://i.imgur.com/xb05XLf.png

It's gonna be a real hoot when the sun goes down tonight and the CDO tops cool another 5 degrees with the eye clearing out simultaneously. An absolute nightmare/dream depending on the perspective.

[Highteeld]

Blue pixels coming in. Probably just minutes away from a T 7.0

https://i.imgur.com/zMnTkRB.png

This is getting comical

https://i.imgur.com/SVblbeT.png

Welp...