WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

Awesome. This typhoon is awesome. And absolute hell for mariners in the area.

[Dianmu]

i am reborn

[1900hurricane]

T7.0 is probably too high arguably.

I think JTWC is trying to match up Hagibis' actual intensity in their Dvorak estimates. It is almost unquestionable that Hagibis is already a Cat.5 in fact.

How much of a factor is lag of winds behind satellite? I realize this is a pinhole but still...

Not sure lag has much effect here if any at all. If this is actually a hyperbomb of the Forrest '83/Wilma '05/Patricia '15 ilk, it's possible it's following very closely with the intantaeous DTs. Here's the three of those right about as they reached 920 mb, respectively.

[Highteeld]

[StruThiO]

This outflow is just stupid.



Incredible Super Typhoon.

[euro6208]

Holy hell

TPPN10 PGTW 070340

A. TYPHOON 20W (E OF GUAM)

B. 07/0300Z

C. 15.29N

D. 148.78E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D4.0/24HRS STT: D2.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0. MET IS 4.5. PT IS 5.0. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN
DUE TO ERI.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[Hayabusa]

I think I'll go at least >= 130 by 6Z, if JTWC wills it.

[Highteeld]

Clear T 7.5 right there. Can see the blue at the bottom on enhanced Vis.

[1900hurricane]

ADT is going to be badly hung up on constraints for a long time with this one.

[1900hurricane]

I am dying a little on the inside every time a pass misses, especially ones like AMSR2 and GPM.

[Hayabusa]

Maybe JMA will go <= 935, they already made a 15 mb drop from 00z to 03z.

[Hayabusa]

2019OCT07 021000 4.0 982.0 65.0 4.0 4.4 7.2 0.5T/hour OFF OFF OFF OFF -5.41 -79.26 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.31 -148.94 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 023000 4.2 978.8 69.8 4.2 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.29 -79.56 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.35 -148.86 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 031000 4.6 970.1 79.6 4.6 5.5 7.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -13.82 -79.86 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.38 -148.77 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 034000 4.7 968.1 82.2 4.7 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -0.45 -79.87 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.41 -148.65 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 041000 5.0 962.2 90.0 5.0 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.88 -79.72 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.45 -148.49 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2

[Highteeld]

AVN:

[1900hurricane]

Eye temp is beginning to rise notably on WV bands now. This is band 10 (low level water vapor), but it's starting to be more noticeable on band 9 now too.

[Highteeld]

Barring ERC, Hagibis has a legit shot at 170 knots at the DMAX.

[CrazyC83]

If this was the NHC, we'd be putting up Special Advisories like crazy with this one. I would go with 150 kt right now (pressure 914 mb), probably increasing about 5 kt every hour, based on the Raw ADT. Could be 170 to 180 kt by 12Z at this rate.

[Highteeld]

More WGM in the eye -- this is particularly interesting though; ADT has been sampling at 10 after the hour, and 20 till. This will be measured at 440z, which should give a huge RAW T number... assuming the eye is actually located.........

[Tailspin]

eye balling the grafic ryan posted. 145 be my guess atm.

[euro6208]

AVN:

Wilma at peak. Not a full ring compared to Hagibis.

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/Nzse7Qk
What be the odd's this beast may pump up the ridge and miss that weakness


https://imgur.com/0qLBXpd