WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

Those very warm and untapped waters east of the Marianas plus excellent upper-level environment, thus, what happened when Hagibis came.

[Tailspin]

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 8&y=7505.5

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 8&y=7505.5

Gee sure looks a 160+kt system

[Hayabusa]

2019OCT07 021000 4.0 982.0 65.0 4.0 4.4 7.2 0.5T/hour OFF OFF OFF OFF -5.41 -79.26 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.31 -148.94 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 023000 4.2 978.8 69.8 4.2 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.29 -79.56 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.35 -148.86 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 031000 4.6 970.1 79.6 4.6 5.5 7.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -13.82 -79.86 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.38 -148.77 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 034000 4.7 968.1 82.2 4.7 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -0.45 -79.87 EYE 7 IR -22.4 15.41 -148.65 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 041000 5.0 962.2 90.0 5.0 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.88 -79.72 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.45 -148.49 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 043000 5.1 960.3 92.4 5.1 5.5 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 4.45 -79.33 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.47 -148.41 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 051000 5.3 956.4 97.2 5.3 5.5 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.58 -78.18 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.52 -148.25 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 054000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.37 -77.73 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.55 -148.16 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 061000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.2 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.28 -77.58 EYE 8 IR -22.4 15.61 -148.09 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 064000 5.5 952.4 102.0 5.5 5.5 7.1 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 9.83 -77.46 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.69 -147.99 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 071000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.6 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.12 -78.37 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.78 -147.88 ARCHER HIM-8 20.3
2019OCT07 074000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.6 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -3.67 -79.62 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.83 -147.71 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 080000 5.5 955.0 102.0 5.5 5.7 7.5 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 5.52 -79.68 EYE 8 IR 0.0 15.88 -147.58 ARCHER HIM-8 20.2
2019OCT07 084000 5.6 952.8 104.6 5.6 5.9 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.88 -80.48 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.90 -147.34 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 091000 5.7 950.5 107.2 5.7 6.3 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 11.61 -80.63 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.91 -147.20 ARCHER HIM-8 20.1
2019OCT07 094000 5.9 946.0 112.4 5.9 6.4 7.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.34 -81.28 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.90 -147.08 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0

[Hayabusa]

915 mb

TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 7 October 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 7 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N15°55' (15.9°)
E147°20' (147.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area E 650 km (350 NM)
W 440 km (240 NM)

[Hayabusa]

From 06/18Z 975 mb to 07/09Z 915 mb, a 60 mb drop in 15 hours

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/61EC9sx

[euro6208]

This is a crime. The most intense TC this year.

[euro6208]

This my friends is why this record in the WPAC and Worldwide still stand to this day because it is obsolete since recon ended in 1987. What if recon never ended? What a tremendous shame. Hagibis and many many typhoons should be on this list. Forget Tip...

[ManilaTC]

Looks like STY Hagibis has resumed a Westward track on the last few frames...

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/X97dHgh
last 8hrs

https://imgur.com/1gNjfqp
Vapor x8

https://imgur.com/KlaqERb

[Hayabusa]

2019OCT07 101000 6.1 941.5 117.4 6.1 6.7 7.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 13.39 -81.58 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.91 -146.99 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 OCT 2019 Time : 101000 UTC
Lat : 15:54:35 N Lon : 146:59:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 941.5mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.7 7.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : +13.4C Cloud Region Temp : -81.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 151nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.0 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

That tiny eye an hit Guam and some residents will likely feel clam while others hell...

[Hayabusa]

2019OCT07 104000 6.2 939.3 119.8 6.2 6.8 7.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.67 -81.10 EYE 8 IR 4.6 15.97 -146.88 ARCHER HIM-8 20.0

[1900hurricane]

That cold -80ºC ring that is set back a little from the eye is likely the sign of a very intense system. Patricia '15 and Wynne '80 both had it.

[dexterlabio]

https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1181129635339239424?s=21

I recall that term coined in this site when an extremely powerful cyclone undergoes an almost undetectable EWRC and even strengthens further during the process... "eyewall melding"

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1181138378336718849

[euro6208]

Amazing, and also worth to note that this basin is currently in the not so favorable MJO phase as the strong signal is in the Atlantic. I've also seen super long range model forecasts showing the WPAC being bone dry the entire October. Guess Hagibis is some kind of a blip?

You forgot about the Kelvin Wave that precedes every MJO.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1181163159492558848

[euro6208]

Not too bad right now in the Marianas. Gale force winds gust intermittently but rains are coming down hard. Should get worser by tonight.