Trough of Low Pressure in Bay of Campeche / (Is INVEST 96L)

[WxEp]

The 6Z EPS at 144 (last map) is pretty similar to the 0Z at 150 and thus implies a similarly more threatening/active vs 12Z. But because the 6Z goes out only 144, it is harder to get really good info from it.
Because the 6Z pretty much agrees with the 0Z at 144 and also because of the sudden role reversal with the GEFS, I’m going to be quite interested in what the 12Z EPS has.....actually the most interest I’ve had in advance of an EPS run since Monday.

It appears to me that the 6Z EPS at 144 shows more of a weakness to the north than the 0Z EPS at 150 (at least at the surface). It will be interesting to see if the 12Z shows even more weakness or backs off a bit to be more like the 0Z.

[LarryWx]

The 6Z EPS at 144 (last map) is pretty similar to the 0Z at 150 and thus implies a similarly more threatening/active vs 12Z. But because the 6Z goes out only 144, it is harder to get really good info from it.
Because the 6Z pretty much agrees with the 0Z at 144 and also because of the sudden role reversal with the GEFS, I’m going to be quite interested in what the 12Z EPS has.....actually the most interest I’ve had in advance of an EPS run since Monday.

What's your thought Larry? I'd guess a pretty slow burn for this next immediate run..... maybe similar number of EPS members; perhaps one or two more maybe? I'm thinking we'll see a greater increase in EPS support with the 0Z run tonight. I'm just as curious to see if individual member tracks begin to suggest an increased tendency toward a more west or more northward track

The last time I tried to predict the EPS I was dead wrong. So, I'd rather just wait to see what it says.

[Hurricaneman]

The 6Z EPS at 144 (last map) is pretty similar to the 0Z at 150 and thus implies a similarly more threatening/active vs 12Z. But because the 6Z goes out only 144, it is harder to get really good info from it.
Because the 6Z pretty much agrees with the 0Z at 144 and also because of the sudden role reversal with the GEFS, I’m going to be quite interested in what the 12Z EPS has.....actually the most interest I’ve had in advance of an EPS run since Monday.

What's your thought Larry? I'd guess a pretty slow burn for this next immediate run..... maybe similar number of EPS members; perhaps one or two more maybe? I'm thinking we'll see a greater increase in EPS support with the 0Z run tonight. I'm just as curious to see if individual member tracks begin to suggest an increased tendency toward a more west or more northward track

The last time I tried to predict the EPS I was dead wrong. So, I'd rather just wait to see what it says.

The GFS still disagrees with the EPS as of the 12z run of the GFS

[TheStormExpert]

Development chances seem to have literally died completely as per the last few GFS runs, kudos to the Euro which never showed any development if nothing ends up happening. Obviously the GFS Western Caribbean bias lives on.

[chaser1]

Development chances seem to have literally died completely as per the last few GFS runs, kudos to the Euro which never showed any development if nothing ends up happening. Obviously the GFS Western Caribbean bias lives on.

True with regards to this a.m.'s GFS run. Does develop a 1006 low (much weaker then previous runs) just prior to moving inland. This 12Z run slides whatever vorticity westward and right on over to the E. PAC side. Will have to see if the 18Z and 0Z hold fast to those same solutions. If so, then I'd have to agree with Kudos to the EURO for not having developed anything out of all of this. Would be funny though if the GFS suddenly dropped this feature from developing, yet a higher number of EPS members were to suddenly ping with development LOL

[Hurricaneman]

It seems we have a model war between the Euro and it’s ensembles and the GFS and it’s ensembles

[chaser1]

Interestingly, the 12Z ICON at 93 hours still showing the same 1003mb low right off the Nicaragua/Honduran border as it has for the last 5 model runs. It continues over time to move this feature to just east of Belize and eventually into the BOC.

[SFLcane]

Development chances seem to have literally died completely as per the last few GFS runs, kudos to the Euro which never showed any development if nothing ends up happening. Obviously the GFS Western Caribbean bias lives on.

True with regards to this a.m.'s GFS run. Does develop a 1006 low (much weaker then previous runs) just prior to moving inland. This 12Z run slides whatever vorticity westward and right on over to the E. PAC side. Will have to see if the 18Z and 0Z hold fast to those same solutions. If so, then I'd have to agree with Kudos to the EURO for not having developed anything out of all of this. Would be funny though if the GFS suddenly dropped this feature from developing, yet a higher number of EPS members were to suddenly ping with development LOL

More likely is that the EPS also drops it...That one cycle might have been a fluke.

[GCANE]

I think the basis of this thread is the Central American Gyre that is forecast to develop over the weekend and move NW over Central America in the following week. Low-level vorts could spin off of this either in the EPAC, W Carib, or BOC. All Global models seem to be onto this, some more so than others.

GFS is forecasting a non-Baroclinic CAG with associated anti-cyclone in the W Carb.

At this point I am watching the setup for this to develop; i.e. PV structure, moisture, and LL winds.





From Philippe Papin, et al "A Climatology of Central American Gyres"

[chaser1]

Development chances seem to have literally died completely as per the last few GFS runs, kudos to the Euro which never showed any development if nothing ends up happening. Obviously the GFS Western Caribbean bias lives on.

True with regards to this a.m.'s GFS run. Does develop a 1006 low (much weaker then previous runs) just prior to moving inland. This 12Z run slides whatever vorticity westward and right on over to the E. PAC side. Will have to see if the 18Z and 0Z hold fast to those same solutions. If so, then I'd have to agree with Kudos to the EURO for not having developed anything out of all of this. Would be funny though if the GFS suddenly dropped this feature from developing, yet a higher number of EPS members were to suddenly ping with development LOL

More likely is that the EPS also drops it...That one cycle might have been a fluke.

Reasonable point; seems like we'll have to wait for a couple more model cycles to know for sure

[GCANE]

At this point, it appears to me CMC is developing the strongest gyre of the globals, moving along the backbone of Central America, ending up with a TC in the BOC.

[cycloneye]

I think the basis of this thread is the Central American Gyre that is forecast to develop over the weekend and move NW over Central America in the following week. Low-level vorts could spin off of this either in the EPAC, W Carib, or BOC. All Global models seem to be onto this, some more so than others.

GFS is forecasting a non-Baroclinic CAG with associated anti-cyclone in the W Carb.

At this point I am watching the setup for this to develop; i.e. PV structure, moisture, and LL winds.



https://i.imgur.com/84fsM52.png

From Philippe Papin, et al "A Climatology of Central American Gyres"

I only made this thread for the incipient area in Central Caribbean that is moving to SW Caribbean. If what you say is going to occur,then another thread will be needed but not now until we see what happens if anything with this area.

[GCANE]

The persistent and heavy convection in the W Carib has created a large area of UL Divergence.
Easy for an anticyclone to quickly develop.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: Far N MX/far S TX landfall from a tropical low at 240.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS another fairly active run although not as strong with the strongest members vs 0Z, which had 5 that were bordering on or were major Hs, all of which hit the US.

[GeneratorPower]

Far N MX/far S TX landfall from a tropical low at 240.

What model?

[LarryWx]

Far N MX/far S TX landfall from a tropical low at 240.

What model?

12Z Euro

[Nimbus]

Some rotation evident north of Panama.
Models will take this WNW over Nicaragua and Honduras?

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM TWD:

Broad low pressure may develop across the SW Caribbean this weekend and persist into
early next week.

[SFLcane]

Best signal remains in Eastern Pacific.