2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[LarryWx]

This was the very active run as of 0Z on 10/18 from the Mon 6Z run:



Now, just 2.5 days of runs later. this is the very quiet 0Z 10/18 map from the Wed 18Z run: horrible consistency

[tolakram]

This is the GLOBAL MODEL RUN thread, not the indicator thread. We're removing posts as this keeps going way off topic. Thanks.

Indicator thread for discussion of longer term conditions.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120166&p=2786497#p2786497

[WeatherEmperor]

I'm not sure if this is the right place to discuss this, but now that the FV3-GFS has backed off SW Caribbean development.....something it had been showing for nearly 10 days in a row.....maybe we should have a discussion what the implications are for this GFS. Maybe this is an example of why the National Weather Service received so much criticism for selecting the FV3 core instead of MPAS?

What I do not understand is why can't NWS just get rid of the HWRF and HMON and start from scratch by using all their resources to just build a completely new global model? All I have seen them do is try to patch the GFS by updating it here and there which doesn't appear effective. To me, it feels like they built the HMON and HWRF (both of which have much higher resolutions) just so they don't have to spend money on a completely new global model. I don't see the UK Met Office or the ECMWF developing these "hurricane models". Instead, they do the more reasonable thing which is build and maintain a high resolution global model. Why is it that the NWS doesn't do the same?

[gatorcane]

The GFS is trying to develop Olga in the deep Southern Caribbean from a monsoon trough that forms in about 10-12 days. Could this trough spawn the October mega storm we are expecting the Western Caribbean to produce? Or will this be another flop of the GFS model?

[SFLcane]

The GFS is trying to develop Olga in the deep Southern Caribbean from a monsoon trough that forms in about 10-12 days. Could this trough spawn the October mega storm we are expecting the Western Caribbean to produce? Or will this be another flop of the GFS model?

https://i.postimg.cc/mkXqF2bC/gfs-z850-vort-watl-50.png

I vote for flop..most likely another phantom at 300+hrs.

[LarryWx]

Believe it or not, the tropical wave still inside Africa may not be the only CV wave that could become a TC. Although with a somewhat low probability of development as of now but of potentially much more concern should it develop, there's a sleeper wave not yet mentioned by the NHC located ~500 miles W of the CVs moving WSW. Although it would be quite unusual so late, the 12Z model consensus (Euro, UKMET, GFS, ICON, CMC) brings at least the vorticity/moisture from this all of the way across to near or north of the L Antilles by a week from now! Some models even form a weak sfc low from this by the end of this weekend. Going out further, the Euro and CMC takes this energy to just north of Hisp at 240 and in a position that could threaten the SE US due to a strong ridge to its north. There are actually 2 EPS members out of 51 that hit FL on 10/23. Also, out of 21 CDN ensemble members, 5 hit or skirt the SE US: 4 skirt some of the SE US coast 10/22-4 and 1 goes around and then hits SW FL on 10/26. In addition, a 6th member is still drifting westward over Cuba and in a threatening position at 384 (10/27).

Here are some maps:

1. 12Z UKMET has concentrated 850 vorticity located near 10N, 44W Sun evening:


2. 12Z UKMET then moves this WNW to just E of the Windwards next Thu morning (also note the track up to that point):


3. 12z CMC 240 has the low between Hisp and Cuba underneath a strong ridge moving WNW:


4. 12Z CMC ensembles hour 276: note the 4 members near or just E of FL (Also, 2 later members: one hits Cuba and other SW FL)

[gatorcane]

Larry it is something interesting indeed, appears to be a sleeper wave and even the 18Z GFS has picked up on it. The wave ends up in the SE Bahamas in the long-range and makes it all the way through the Straits of Florida and SE GOM before it recurves! Pattern looks more like August:



12Z CMC similar to the GFS on location:

[LarryWx]

Although pretty far out in lala land, the 12Z EPS has a moderate signal (7 of 51 members sub 999/14%) in the 11-15 for a TC that starts in the W Car.

[gatorcane]

Larry indeed I noticed this EPS signal also with the lowest pressures I have seen the members show so far this month down there:

[SFLcane]

I actually like the odds of the current long range EPS signal better than the last one. Probably a mix of CAG, 95L, and a front coming down.

[SFLcane]

EPS a bit active this afternoon in terms of the Carib after 00z dropped it. Still long range so we will see

[gatorcane]

EPS a bit active this afternoon in terms of the Carib after 00z dropped it. Still long range so we will see

Yeah bit of an uptick. I count 8 lows meandering around the SW or Western Caribbean at the end of the run with the strongest one being 998MB. The GEFS is pretty quiet.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has something forming in the SW Caribbean at day 7, the 12zEuro has some vorticity there too but not really anything developing, might be a phantom the GFS likes to form beyond 5 days in that general area this time of year

[gatorcane]

GFS with potential Olga forming in the Western Caribbean at the end of October. Has some support from the EPS.

[gatorcane]

Looks like some models are showing some development in the NW Caribbean area in the 7-10 day range. ICON with a 1008mb low, NAVGEM has a broad low as well which later develops into Olga, there are a few EPS members which develop something now also. The Euro, GFS, and UKMET show some disturbed weather developing but no development. Looks like those models push the area into Central America. But, ridging over the Gulf and Florida doesn’t look as pronounced this time around so we will see if models start coming on board here with some kind of system which moves more north in the Western Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

Looks like some models are showing some development in the NW Caribbean area in the 7-10 day range. ICON with a 1008mb low, NAVGEM has a broad low as well which later develops into Olga, there are a few EPS members which develop something now also. The Euro, GFS, and UKMET show some disturbed weather developing but no development. Looks like those models push the area into Central America. But, ridging over the Gulf and Florida doesn’t look as pronounced this time around so we will see if models start coming on board here with some kind of system which moves more north in the Western Caribbean.

Yeah not seeing anything much on reliable models but we'll see. Getting pretty late

[gatorcane]

The 12Z EPS has 6 members which form a storm in the NW Caribbean in about 6-7 days taking the storm north then NE into Southern / SW Florida and SE GOM. That is a bit of an uptick from 00Z which didn’t show much. Strongest member looks to be 992MB

[SFLcane]

The 12Z EPS has 6 members which form a storm in the NW Caribbean in about 6-7 days taking the storm north then NE into Southern / SW Florida and SE GOM. That is a bit of an uptick from 00Z which didn’t show much. Strongest member looks to be 992MB

I think it's model noise at this point.

[GeneratorPower]

The 12Z EPS has 6 members which form a storm in the NW Caribbean in about 6-7 days taking the storm north then NE into Southern / SW Florida and SE GOM. That is a bit of an uptick from 00Z which didn’t show much. Strongest member looks to be 992MB

Please post graphic. Was trying to find source myself but it looks like all the most recent ones have been cropped to exclude the source website.

[blp]

Here you go. You can get it at weathernerds. Very interesting Gator. I counted 8 members at one point and if you count the BOC that is 5 more.