Trough of Low Pressure in Bay of Campeche / (Is INVEST 96L)

[tolakram]

I'm looking at last years model threads and seeing some amazingly wrong tweets pre Michael.

Global model run thread just before the disturbance thread was created:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119434&start=2040

The pre-Michael disturbance thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120008

Upper air patterns completely different but I think it's educational to see how a previous storm was predicted in this area. The disturbance thread starts on Sept 30th, cat 5 Michael made landfall on October 10th.

GEM was the first (I believe) to show a strong storm into the panhandle.

[GeneratorPower]

I'm looking at last years model threads and seeing some amazingly wrong tweets pre Michael.

Global model run thread just before the disturbance thread was created:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119434&start=2040

The pre-Michael disturbance thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119434&start=2040

Upper air patterns completely different but I think it's educational to see how a previous storm was predicted in this area. The disturbance thread starts on Sept 30th, cat 5 Michael made landfall on October 10th.

GEM was the first (I believe) to show a strong storm into the panhandle.

Awesome post.

[SconnieCane]

I'm looking at last years model threads and seeing some amazingly wrong tweets pre Michael.

This one gave me a chuckle.  https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1046475519951347720




Ironic that his top image is now an IR shot of Michael at landfall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like this has a shot of becoming Nestor (or Olga if we do actually end up with another CV storm) in the GOMEX if the GFS ends up being correct. UKMET and ECMWF focus the energy in the EPAC.

[GCANE]

I know its late in the season, but somehow I have a bad feeling about Olga

[gatorcane]

I know its late in the season, but somehow I have a bad feeling about Olga

https://i.imgur.com/grVJD5O.jpg

Yes me too. But does this become Olga or is a late October monster that might form in the Caribbean?

[LarryWx]

Preliminary maps suggest the 0Z Euro will likely have little and maybe less than the 12Z due to stronger 500 mb high to the north keeping it further south. Result: it had very little.
I'm educatedly guessing that the 0Z EPS will also be a quieter run.

The 0Z EPS ended up to not be quieter than the prior run with about 9 (18%) sub 999 mb members (4th highest with the highest being 12) vs the 8 (16%) of the prior run. Of the 9 sub 999, I count 3 that are Hs, all of which hit the US. These 3 Hs all hit 10/19-20 within the E LA to W FL Panhandle corridor. I counted 7 (14%) sub 999 that hit the US, which is behind the 8 (16% of the prior run and the 9 (18%)(the highest of any) of two runs ago.

[Kohlecane]

Preliminary maps suggest the 0Z Euro will likely have little and maybe less than the 12Z due to stronger 500 mb high to the north keeping it further south. Result: it had very little.
I'm educatedly guessing that the 0Z EPS will also be a quieter run.

The 0Z EPS ended up to not be quieter than the prior run with about 9 (16%) sub 999 mb members (4th highest with the highest being 12) vs the 8 (16%) of the prior run. Of the 9 sub 999, I count 3 that are Hs, all of which hit the US. These 3 Hs all hit 10/19-20 within the E LA to W FL Panhandle corridor. I counted 7 (14%) sub 999 that hit the US, which is behind the 8 (16% of the prior run and the 9 (18%)(the highest of any) of two runs ago.

can you post a link for this please.

[LarryWx]

Preliminary maps suggest the 0Z Euro will likely have little and maybe less than the 12Z due to stronger 500 mb high to the north keeping it further south. Result: it had very little.
I'm educatedly guessing that the 0Z EPS will also be a quieter run.

The 0Z EPS ended up to not be quieter than the prior run with about 9 (16%) sub 999 mb members (4th highest with the highest being 12) vs the 8 (16%) of the prior run. Of the 9 sub 999, I count 3 that are Hs, all of which hit the US. These 3 Hs all hit 10/19-20 within the E LA to W FL Panhandle corridor. I counted 7 (14%) sub 999 that hit the US, which is behind the 8 (16% of the prior run and the 9 (18%)(the highest of any) of two runs ago.

can you post a link for this please.

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ece ... latlon=Off

Some of the non-H US hits are after this 240 hour map.

[LarryWx]

12z GFS: unlike last 3 runs, hardly anything worth noting on this run.

[gatorcane]

12z GFS: unlike last 3 runs, hardly anything worth noting on this run.

This FV3 GFS really blew this. Euro has shined. Looks like the model needs a close look to see what happened.

[GCANE]

Gyre is kicking in.

[LarryWx]

12z GFS: unlike last 3 runs, hardly anything worth noting on this run.

This FV3 GFS really blew this. Euro has shined. Looks like the model needs a close look to see what happened.

It appears that's likely but we'll see. We need to first let the heavy set lady do her thing before we know for sure. She's warming up at the mic but not yet singing.

Meanwhile, the 12Z GEFS like the 6Z GEFS has 2 (~10%) sub 999 members that hit the US: both runs have one hit LA and the other hit TX during 10/19-20.

One thing that model consensus is telling me: IF there is going to be a TS+ hit on the US, the most likely period would be 10/19-21 or next weekend or so.

[crownweather]

12z GFS: unlike last 3 runs, hardly anything worth noting on this run.

And FWIW (probably not much), 12Z Canadian still forecasts tropical development in the Bay of Campeche late next week w/ a NE-ENE track towards the Big Bend of Florida (climatology favored track).

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea this weekend. This system is forecast to move
westward toward Central America early next week, and some
development is possible if the low remains over water while moving
near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[SoupBone]

12z GFS: unlike last 3 runs, hardly anything worth noting on this run.

This FV3 GFS really blew this. Euro has shined. Looks like the model needs a close look to see what happened.

It appears that's likely but we'll see. We need to first let the heavy set lady do her thing before we know for sure. She's warming up at the mic but not yet singing.

Meanwhile, the 12Z GEFS like the 6Z GEFS has 2 (~10%) sub 999 members that hit the US: both runs have one hit LA and the other hit TX during 10/19-20.

One thing that model consensus is telling me: IF there is going to be a TS+ hit on the US, the most likely period would be 10/19-21 or next weekend or so.

Texas has a rather long coastline. What specific areas were showing landfall locations?

[gatorcane]

The 12Z EPS looks pretty active in the BOC and GOM actually. Is that a further uptick from the 00Z?

[LarryWx]

This FV3 GFS really blew this. Euro has shined. Looks like the model needs a close look to see what happened.

It appears that's likely but we'll see. We need to first let the heavy set lady do her thing before we know for sure. She's warming up at the mic but not yet singing.

Meanwhile, the 12Z GEFS like the 6Z GEFS has 2 (~10%) sub 999 members that hit the US: both runs have one hit LA and the other hit TX during 10/19-20.

One thing that model consensus is telling me: IF there is going to be a TS+ hit on the US, the most likely period would be 10/19-21 or next weekend or so.

Texas has a rather long coastline. What specific areas were showing landfall locations?

South TX coast on 12Z and N TX coast on 6Z

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS looks pretty active in the BOC and GOM actually. Is that a further uptick from the 00Z?

In terms of # of TCs, yes, as I count 11 (22%) 1004 mb or lower and 9 (18%) 1000 mb or lower. In terms of average strength, no, the average is weaker:

Out of 11, these 8 (16%) hit the US:
- 1 clear-cut H: hits AL/W Panhandle of FL on 10/20
- 4 strong TSs: FL Pan on 10/18, E LA on 10/19, N TX on 10/20, and E LA on 10/21
- 3 weaker TS or TD: W FL on 10/20, S TX on 10/20, E La on 10/21

[Monsoonjr99]

Not so sure if this thing will form in the 2019ing BoC, especially with outflow/shear from the potential EPac TC of this CAG. We also saw back in June how a broad CAG isn't easy to spin up in the BoC. If this does manage to form, however, it looks like it'll have up to 72 hours (according to the 12z GEFS) over the high SSTs of the western GoM to intensify before landfall. In that case, we have to wait and see how shear and RH will turn out, because if this finds a pocket of favorable conditions after tightening up a core, watch out! This could be anything from a flop to an Opal redux imo. I'm leaning towards flop.