Trough of Low Pressure in Bay of Campeche / (Is INVEST 96L)

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea this weekend. This system is forecast to
move westward toward Central America early next week, and some
development is possible if the low remains over water while moving
near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has now developed.

[bamajammer4eva]

00z Euro still favors development in the EPAC but manages to get it into the Gulf traversing just East of Mexico's mountains.

[lando]

euro now showing a solution similar to 10/11 00z CMC with a gyre shooting NE into the GOM.
GFS now shows no caribbean development and CMC tonight has a lot of moisture similar to euro but not as organized

[bamajammer4eva]

It would seem that several members of the Euro Ens support the operational in general @ 192 hrs.

[N2FSU]

0z Euro for Sunday 10/20



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[GCANE]

CAG clearly seen on MIMIC-TPW.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[GCANE]

06Z GFS is now trending toward a spin up of a LL Vort in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with it moving north thru the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the BoC.

[GCANE]

Likely now warm-core genesis will be in the EPAC with NW movement along the coast and possible transition over the IoT into the BoC

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/1183004932670144514

[bamajammer4eva]

IF this made it into the Gulf intact could it be Octave?

[Aric Dunn]

Just let it go... lol

watch it because you never know.. but the GFS is poop...

[cycloneye]

2 PM:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea this weekend. The system is forecast
to move westward toward Central America early next week, and some
development is possible if the low moves over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize.
Regardless of development, this system could bring heavy rains to
portions of Central America late this weekend through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just let it go... lol

watch it because you never know.. but the GFS is poop...

Couldn’t agree more. Will admit i kind of bought into it in late September when day after day run after run it showed a possible system in the gulf in early October. But of course turned out to be a phantom just like what is going on now, which is nothing, regardless of how many runs it showed something for mid to late October.

[psyclone]

Just let it go... lol

watch it because you never know.. but the GFS is poop...

Couldn’t agree more. Will admit i kind of bought into it in late September when day after day run after run it showed a possible system in the gulf in early October. But of course turned out to be a phantom just like what is going on now, which is nothing, regardless of how many runs it showed something for mid to late October.

Old age is always 10 years away and the GFS storm is always 10 days away. One of those will ultimately show up! On a slightly more serious note...the WPC has been showing increasing QPF over the western Gulf in the latter portions of the 7 day timeframe. while a coherent TC might be improbable, the odds of a slug of deep tropical moisture yielding respectable rainfall seems to be increasing and is worth watching IMO.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

That’s just because of the earlier gfs runs showing the always 7 day away storm coming north out of the BOC. The Canadian doesn’t even have anything anymore and barely any moisture as well. Only moisture in the gulf the next week will be associated with a cold front sweeping west to east cleaning the gulf out. Guarantee you the WPC will change that forecast up drastically in a day or two.

[cycloneye]

Surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure is
forming over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The system is forecast
to move westward toward Central America early next week, and some
development is possible if the low moves over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize.
Regardless of development, this system could bring heavy rains to
portions of Central America late this weekend through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS develops this in GOM.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS
850mb Vort develops along Hoduras coast Monday.
Moves across Yucatan.
Spins up in the BoC.
Landfall South LA.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward
toward Central America, and some development is possible if the low
remains over water when it is near the coasts of Honduras,
Guatemala, and Belize on Monday and Tuesday. Regardless of
development, this system could bring heavy rains to portions of
Central America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.