Texas Fall 2019

[Brent]

Bad trends on models today for us rain lovers.

yup

Euro just cut in half the rain on Tuesday up here

I don't get it, wasn't the SOI or something supposed to bring a wet pattern??

[Cpv17]

Bad trends on models today for us rain lovers.

yup

Euro just cut in half the rain on Tuesday up here

I don't get it, wasn't the SOI or something supposed to bring a wet pattern??

Yep. That’s what I thought too..

[weatherdude1108]

EWX talked about a pattern change coming.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
406 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
A weak trough is moving across the area early this morning, resulting
in scattered light showers generally along and north of I-10. The
trough will continue to move east and the showers should exit the
area by 15Z. Otherwise, expect a warming/moistening trend today into
Monday as moist Gulf flow returns to the area. High temperatures
today will be about 10F higher than Saturday, and Monday`s highs
about another 7-9F warmer -- putting most locations in the upper
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
A more substantial trough and associated cold front will move
through the area on Tuesday. Morning streamer showers are possible,
especially over the coastal plains, followed by isolated
thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon due to diurnal heating pushing
temperatures into the 90s. The best chances for rain will be Tuesday
evening as the cold front arrives and pushes a line of showers and
thunderstorms generally from north to south across the area.
Additional light rain is expected on Wednesday as moist Gulf air
flows up and over the near-surface cool air. Total rainfall amounts
for the entire event should range from 1/4 to 1/2 inch, with a few
spots on the coastal plains possibly seeing one inch.

Weak ridging will build back into the area on Thursday, resulting in
a return of above normal temperatures into the weekend. Models show
a pattern change across the CONUS coming, with high-amplitude
troughs and ridges. The first of these troughs will bring a chance of
rain next Sunday.

[CaptinCrunch]

Flip Flop models is a way of life during Fall and Winter, take them with a grain salt. Still decent rain chances for Monday evening and Tuesday.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty decent trend over the last 24hrs on the GFS

[bubba hotep]

This latest version of the Euro is laughable with how it handles qpf... Yesterdays 12z run, 2-3" of rain for DFW, now just 24hrs later, basically nothing lol

And this is for a relatively short range forecast.

[Haris]

The ensembles are good regarding rain but it’s always stuck beyond 200 hours.

Reminds me of cold air forecasts in winter. Sucks.

[weatherdude1108]

National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
A weak disturbance continues to produce isolated showers across Val
Verde and Edwards county, otherwise the rest of South Central Texas
remains dry. For the day on Monday temperatures will continue to warm
from the low to mid 80s that we are seeing today, to the mid to upper
80s to near 90 tomorrow. In addition with return flow in place today
into tomorrow Precipitable Water values will continue to increase.
With the moist environment and warm temperatures isolated showers may
start to form before noon along and east of I-35 with a few
thunderstorms possible east of I-35 tomorrow afternoon as convective
temperatures are reached.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The next trough and and cold front pair approaches Texas on Tuesday.
While some scattered showers and storms are possible ahead of the
front in the moisture rich environment the main show will be with the
cold front itself. The heat could also help convect some isolated
storms on Tuesday. Highs ahead of the front will warm into the low to
mid 90s, aided by compressional warming. The 00z models last night
and 12z models this morning have sped up the front slightly, with it
arriving in the Hill Country Tuesday evening, being through Austin
and the Edwards Plateau by Midnight, and south of our area before
dawn on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely along and
ahead of the front. Showers and storms could continue along the
Coastal Plains into Wednesday, but rain chances decrease the further
north you go on Wednesday. The cold air is not as strong behind this
front as it was behind last weeks`, and yet highs for both Wednesday
and Thursday, and lows for Thursday morning should all be below
normal for mid October. Highs Wednesday will be in the low to upper
70s, warming slightly into the upper 70s and low 80s for Thursday.
Lows for Wednesday night, the first night behind the front will drop
down into the 50s.

Conditions look to dry out for Thursday, Friday, and most of Saturday
weak ridging will lead to a slow warm up into the mid 80s by Friday
and near 90 by Saturday with partly cloudy skies. While it is 7 days
out all 3 global models show a very strong trough moving across the
CONUS next Saturday night and Sunday. This will produce another good
chance for rain as the trough drags a cold front through Texas.

[weatherdude1108]

I got another 0.10" this morning from some elevated Pacific-tap moisture. Don't underestimate our friend the Pacific Ocean.

252
FXUS64 KEWX 140911
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
411 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...Elevated showers ongoing early
this morning across portions of the Hill Country and Central Texas,
in association with Pacific energy streaming through the region in
the southwest flow aloft. In addition, isolated showers are developing
this morning along and east of I-35 and I-37 as low level moisture
advection increases. Tonight the low level flow will turn more
towards the southwest across South Central Texas and the upper level
tap of energy will shift slightly more to the north. This should lead
to a temporary reduction in rain chances tonight through Tuesday
morning.

However, the pattern will quickly change Tuesday afternoon and night,
is response to a potent upper level shortwave moving out of New
Mexico and closing off over West Texas. This will allow the active
Pacific flow aloft to shift back south into northwest portions of the
CWA Tuesday afternoon, and across the entire CWA Tuesday night
through Wednesday. A pre-frontal trough is forecast to set-up across
portions of the Edwards Plataea and Rio Grande Tuesday afternoon.
Very warm temperatures, into the low and mid 90s, are forecast
Tuesday afternoon as the low level flow near and south of the trough
turns to the southwest. Late in the afternoon and early evening
convection is forecast to develop across the Hill Country and along
the Rio Grande, as the flow south of the pre-frontal trough backs
towards the southeast and also coinciding with the energy in the
southwest flow aloft. Can`t rule out a few stronger storms initially
producing small hail and gusty winds across this region, where steep
mid level lapse rates contribute to CAPE values around 1500-1800
J/kg and 40-50kt of deep layer shear exists.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Sunday)...Convection is forecast
to become widespread Tuesday night across much of South Central
Texas as the main cold front surges through the area late in the
evening and overnight. Elevated convection should persist well behind
the front overnight, given the shallow nature of the front and
aforementioned sub-tropical flow aloft. Precipitable water values of
2-2.15" are forecast to pool along the front, which is above the
90th climatological percentile for this time of year. This would
indicate the potential for some pockets of heavy rainfall. Mean areal
rainfall forecasts from models are indicating around 1/2-1 inch of
rainfall, however there are signals in both the GFS and NAM12 of some
pockets 2-3 inches. Antecedent drought conditions should mitigate
the concern for significant flash flooding, nevertheless we will
mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook the possibility for pockets
of locally heavy rainfall leading to minor flooding concerns Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.

The chances for elevated convection will continue through the day
Wednesday, especially across the southwest half of the CWA. Despite
the shallow nature of the front, much cooler conditions Wednesday
compared to Tuesday given the cloud cover and precip. Consensus raw
guidance is indicating some locations remaining in the 60s for highs.

The upper level low is eventually forecast to open and kick east
across South Central Texas Wednesday night and Thursday. There are
some indications by both the ECMWF and GFS of QPF during this time,
however differing on where. Future forecasts may need to insert low
PoPs into the forecast during this time.

A gradual warming trend is forecast to take place Thursday through
the weekend, with temperatures well above normal Saturday and Sunday.
A weaker upper level shortwave looks to pass mainly north of the
area Friday and Saturday, but we could see enough low level moisture
return to generated a few showers. A deeper trough is forecast to
develop through the Rockies on Sunday, potentially impacting the area
early next week, just beyond the 7 day.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty good agreement b/w the ensembles that we should turn back colder for the last 1/3 of October after a mild week or so. GEFS is more aggressive than the Euro EPS but they both show a colder back end of the month. Pretty impressive 5-day mean on the GEFS!

[Cpv17]

So much for the deluge the GFS was showing for the 19th through 22nd time period. It’s fizzled out to almost nothing now.

[Ralph's Weather]

Showery and 64 here in Tyler at 1pm. I'll take it.

[weatherdude1108]

So much for the deluge the GFS was showing for the 19th through 22nd time period. It’s fizzled out to almost nothing now.

flip...flop...flip...flop...

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like we won't get really anything today based on models. GFS trending drier until the end also.

[CaptinCrunch]

Bouncy house temps through the next 7-10 days, close to 90 today, upper 60's to lower 70's tomorrow followed by lower to mid 80's to finish the week and head into the weekend. Hopefully we ge some good rain tonight and again Sunday into Monday of next week as soil moisture is key to as we move into November and December.

Average NTX high temps for mid October is 78-79 with lows in the upper 50's. The current NTX monthly mean for October is 73.4 (+3.5) and precip is @ -0.89 for the month.
The current monthly mean of 73.4 is 3rd warmest, anything above 71.6 will be a top 10 warmest record.

Hopefully the 2nd half of October will turn much cooler and wetter!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Yesterday stayed about 65 all day. Mid 70s now maybe rising to 80 later today with good chance for storms later today. Key is how far west the line fires off later today. Could be a solid line starting on west side of DFW but could wait until it gets into E TX. I'll be watching the HRRR today to see where the line will really get going. In any case the storms will pack a punch once they get past me but question is if they will impact areas around me and west to DFW.

[weatherdude1108]

The Austin metro is in the Marginal Risk per SPC.



A broken line of strong to severe storms is expected to develop ahead of the front that is set to move over South Central TX this evening and into tonight. Strong winds, hail up to 1 inch, and locally heavy rainfall is possible.

[bubba hotep]

With just one cool shot so far in October, most of Texas is running 3 - 7 degrees above normal for the 1st half of October

[Haris]

Now the 2nd half of October is looking pretty dry. Is this a joke? Winter is already a pretty dry season. October is when we get the most rain after may. Ugh

[weatherdude1108]

Now the 2nd half of October is looking pretty dry. Is this a joke? Winter is already a pretty dry season. October is when we get the most rain after may. Ugh

Actually (not to nit pick), but it is May, then followed by September, April, October, etc.

http://soa.utexas.edu/sites/default/dis ... e_Data.pdf

But given that, we all know how this past September turned out. I have no idea what "average" is anymore.
I've gotten gotten 0.6" total since July. Better than nothing, but not near enough to do any good, except some small weeds and grasses with shallow roots.smh