Trough of Low Pressure in Bay of Campeche / (Is INVEST 96L)

[SoupBone]

GFS has quite a wall of strong shear across the northern Gulf all week.

Right now, you have 25-60 knots screaming along the Gulf Coast, stretching into the GoM. If that stays in place, well....

[Ivanhater]

12z Gfs bring this low into NOLA, actually gets down to 1003mb in the gulf. I wouldn't be surprised to see a TD or weak TS before shear gets it.

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula, northern Guatemala,
southeastern Mexico, and adjacent waters of the Bay of Campeche.
This disturbance and another tropical system over the eastern
Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains across a large
portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which
could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.
By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the
Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
by Thursday and Friday when the system is located over the western
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[wxman57]

Looks more like a highly-sheared frontal low on the 12Z GFS. If it does develop, then there likely won't be much left of it by the time it reaches the Gulf Coast on Saturday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019101512/gfs_shear_watl_13.png

[Ivanhater]

Development looks like in the SW Gulf Wxman57. We only want the rain on the northern gulf. We need it desperately.

[wxman57]

Development looks like in the SW Gulf Wxman57. We only want the rain on the northern gulf. We need it desperately.

I'm not sure there will be enough left of it to bring rain to the Gulf Coast. Some showers Fri/Sat, maybe.

[Ivanhater]

Development looks like in the SW Gulf Wxman57. We only want the rain on the northern gulf. We need it desperately.

I'm not sure there will be enough left of it to bring rain to the Gulf Coast. Some showers Fri/Sat, maybe.

Ouch
Hopefully it just enhances the frontal moisture. I do think we get a TD out of this.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro a huge rainmaker from this low for the northern gulf coast

[psyclone]

This disturbance is likely to be a net benefit for the southeast brining much needed rain not only to that region but probably up into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. Bearish on TC development of consequence but bullish on rain..

[GCANE]

Actually, conditions look really good in the BoC where this is suppose to develop tomorrow.

[GCANE]

Going to hit a lot of dry air when it gets in the middle of the GOM though.

[SoupBone]

Actually, conditions look really good in the BoC where this is suppose to develop tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/nn0JNX2.png

Right, low shear in that spot, but just to its north will be now 25-70 knots of screaming shear. What's the shear forecast toward the end of the week?

[Dean4Storms]

I'm counting 28 ECM EPS Members 12z now with a distinct Low over the Western half of the GOM by Friday evening. Looks about 7 of them get sub 1000 but most weaken as they get to the northern Gulf.

Edit.... There is one Member that puts a 980ish TC into the Panama City area by early Sunday.

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, Euro is adamant this develops in the gulf. It will likely get sheared but very beneficial rain coming.

[GCANE]

Actually, conditions look really good in the BoC where this is suppose to develop tomorrow.

https://i.imgur.com/nn0JNX2.png

Right, low shear in that spot, but just to its north will be now 25-70 knots of screaming shear. What's the shear forecast toward the end of the week?

The forecast sounding I posted for Saturday shows about 9 knots of shear.
The inhibiting factor is mid-level dry air.

[Dean4Storms]

Evidently this front now sweeping into the Gulf leaves behind very dry CONUS air aloft.

[GeneratorPower]

GFS has quite a wall of strong shear across the northern Gulf all week.

That’s what I’m worried about.

[ronjon]

18z GFS 999mb into NE GOM similar to UKMET Saturday.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2019101518&fh=210

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure located over southern Mexico is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over southeastern Mexico,
Guatemala, and the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance and another
tropical system over the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to
produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico and Central
America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding
and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday,
the disturbance is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche and
gradually turn northward. Some gradual development is possible
after the disturbance moves over water and a tropical or subtropical
cyclone could form later this week over the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1184247924282277888