Trough of Low Pressure in Bay of Campeche / (Is INVEST 96L)

[Ivanhater]

Umm, 18z gfs is interesting

[AnnularCane]

Umm, 18z gfs is interesting

What does it show?

[MarioProtVI]

Umm, 18z gfs is interesting

What does it show?

Looks like a broad subtropical cyclone. Not sure if we’ve seen something like that in that region ever before (excluding Alberto bc it formed in W Carib and entered into Gulf from there)

[LarryWx]

The 18Z Euro, which ends the run 100 miles S of C LA moving NE (at hour 90), is the strongest run of any Euro yet with 998 mb. This compares to the 1002 of the 12Z, and the 1004 of the 6Z and 0Z. Also, it has trended somewhat east of the 12Z, which was east of the 0Z. Based on this and other models, the east trend of the track as well as strengthening of the storm may not be over.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z EPS is consistent with the 18Z Euro operational in being much more active and further east based on the individual members as well as the mean sfc low position/precip/500 mb pattern. The majority of the 51 members (impossible to count) easily get to 1003 or stronger. The number of sub 999 is ~15 (30%), which compares to only 5 on the 12Z, 4 on the 6Z, and 3 on the 0Z.

This is by far the most active of any EPS yet. This is looking more and more like it will be a very big wx maker for much of the SE US this weekend and the largest effect from a tropical cyclone so far this season for many. Stay tuned.

Most of the members, especially the stronger ones, are ENE of the operational.

This should be invested soon.

[Ivanhater]

As I stated yesterday, this low will.will be named IMO

[psyclone]

It would be rather unusual and most interesting to see a system traverse the Gulf from west to east. Such an event would be quite rare and would yield a good bit of elbow room relative to the more typical northward moving gulf system. I remain in the weak system camp...but my interest is piqued now...

[cycloneye]

Rain and more rain will be the story here.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1184286729114738688

[Ivanhater]

A named storm coming

[LarryWx]

The 18Z Euro, which ends the run 100 miles S of C LA moving NE (at hour 90), is the strongest run of any Euro yet with 998 mb. This compares to the 1002 of the 12Z, and the 1004 of the 6Z and 0Z. Also, it has trended somewhat east of the 12Z, which was east of the 0Z. Based on this and other models, the east trend of the track as well as strengthening of the storm may not be over.

1. The new 0Z Euro is slightly weaker at 1000 vs the 998 of the 18Z. Also, the track of the center is even further E vs prior runs with it going from far SE LA ENE to Mobile through S-central Ga through SE SC to Wilmington, NC. 1-4" of much needed rainfall covers all around the track and also further SE.

2. 0Z UKMET: similar track/strength to its 12Z run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 22.4N 95.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2019 48 22.4N 95.8W 1005 30
1200UTC 18.10.2019 60 23.8N 93.5W 1004 26
0000UTC 19.10.2019 72 26.8N 90.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 19.10.2019 84 28.3N 89.1W 999 34
0000UTC 20.10.2019 96 30.3N 86.8W 999 30
1200UTC 20.10.2019 108 32.6N 83.3W 1003 30
0000UTC 21.10.2019 120 34.3N 79.5W 1007 32
1200UTC 21.10.2019 132 37.0N 76.1W 1010 29
0000UTC 22.10.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

[GCANE]

Here ya go.
LL vort emerging over water with an anti-cyclone overhead
Looks like is disassociated enough from PTC17.
Convection firing up at DMAX.

[GCANE]

[Dean4Storms]

The 18Z Euro, which ends the run 100 miles S of C LA moving NE (at hour 90), is the strongest run of any Euro yet with 998 mb. This compares to the 1002 of the 12Z, and the 1004 of the 6Z and 0Z. Also, it has trended somewhat east of the 12Z, which was east of the 0Z. Based on this and other models, the east trend of the track as well as strengthening of the storm may not be over.

1. The new 0Z Euro is slightly weaker at 1000 vs the 998 of the 18Z. Also, the track of the center is even further E vs prior runs with it going from far SE LA ENE to Mobile through S-central Ga through SE SC to Wilmington, NC. 1-4" of much needed rainfall covers all around the track and also further SE.

2. 0Z UKMET: similar track/strength to its 12Z run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 22.4N 95.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 18.10.2019 48 22.4N 95.8W 1005 30
1200UTC 18.10.2019 60 23.8N 93.5W 1004 26
0000UTC 19.10.2019 72 26.8N 90.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 19.10.2019 84 28.3N 89.1W 999 34
0000UTC 20.10.2019 96 30.3N 86.8W 999 30
1200UTC 20.10.2019 108 32.6N 83.3W 1003 30
0000UTC 21.10.2019 120 34.3N 79.5W 1007 32
1200UTC 21.10.2019 132 37.0N 76.1W 1010 29
0000UTC 22.10.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

Actually the 00z ECMWF gets down to 999mb south of the mouth of the MS River.

[GCANE]

All global models forecast this transitioning to a cold core in the GOM.
It appears this is due a PV Streamer breaking off from a sharp Rossby Wave trough currently located along the Mexican border.
Need to watch this closely how it may evolve.

[GCANE]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151626
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT TUE 15 OCTOBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z OCTOBER 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-140

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71
A. 16/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 16/1815Z
D. 20.0N 96.0W
E. 16/2030Z TO 17/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FOLLOW-ON MISSION
NEAR 22.0N 96.5W FOR 17/1500Z.

[N2FSU]

0z UKMET

0z Euro ensembles


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[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[zal0phus]

Call me crazy but I have a bad feeling about this system. Watching this is reminding me of watching Michael's earliest stages last year.

[ronjon]

A trough of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over the
western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Hmmm..up to 50% now and no declared investigation. Time to pull the trigger on that and get some tropical models run on the disturbance.

[Dean4Storms]

Call me crazy but I have a bad feeling about this system. Watching this is reminding me of watching Michael's earliest stages last year.

Fortunately this current front is dropping into the Gulf and behind it cool and dry air, much unlike what was ahead of Michael last year, just juice and very warm SST's.