WPAC: NEOGURI - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

96W INVEST 191015 0000 16.0N 136.0E WPAC 15 0

[euro6208]

That looks pretty much classifiable.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 150000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 16N 136E WNW SLOWLY.

[mrbagyo]

METOP-B got a bullseye pass but it only revealed a very weak circulation.

[doomhaMwx]

There are tropical depression-force winds occurring in the area, though the system doesn't seem to be as organized as it looks on satellite images.
Anyway, the system is located in favorable environment and although the global models don't develop this, it would not be out of the question for a numbered tropical depression to quickly form as the system moves WNW.

[Nancy Smar]

96W INVEST 191015 0600 16.1N 135.3E WPAC 20 1006

[Nancy Smar]

ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZOCT2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.1N 135.3E, APPROXIMATELY 837 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 150435Z ATMS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING BROAD LLCC WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LUZON WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

96W INVEST
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 15, 2019:

Location: 16.3°N 134.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

[euro6208]

For a system that just became an invest...

It sure does look like a TS right now.

[euro6208]

Looks more like a mid circulation intact.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1184117613582082050




Here's the full sized version of that loop.

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 134.1E TO 18.4N 129.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 102030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.6N 133.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
16.3N 134.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TURNING. A
151616Z NOAA-20 ATMS 88.2 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SPIRAL BANDING IN THE LOWER
LEVELS INDICATIVE OF A LLCC IN THE SAME LOCATION AS THE MID-LEVEL
TURNING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT SHOWS FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WARM SSTS (29C), AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL WESTWARD/EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SYMMETRIC POSITIVE VORTICITY SIGNATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH 96W AT 850MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
162100Z.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 152140

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (E OF LUZON)

B. 15/2100Z

C. 16.80N

D. 133.41E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AGREES, PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


VEERKAMP

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 152124
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 15/2030Z

C. 16.9N

D. 133.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET =
1.0 AND PT = 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/1854Z 16.9N 133.7E SSMI


...KIBLER

[mrbagyo]

It is having a difficult time maintaining deep convection, that's probably a result of the cold surge spilling from the north.

[euro6208]

HWRF continues to be the most robust vs GFS and EURO.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 160921

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (E OF LUZON)

B. 16/0900Z

C. XX.XX

D. XXX.XX

E. N/A/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT
BE FOUND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.6N 133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 131.7E, APPROXIMATELY
640 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 160415Z
AMSR2 36 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WEAK LOW-LEVEL BANDING ELSEWHERE AND NO DEFINED
LLCC. A PARTIAL 160409Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS SOME 15-20 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH 10-15 KNOT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE
SURFACE YET. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARD LUZON WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
EXTENSIVE NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.