
Florida Weather
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
I am skeptical of that big GFS cold front. Seems it is always in the 10+ day range much like the hurricanes 

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Re: Florida Weather
This afternoon's discussion out of Ruskin mentioned that Tampa still hasn't fallen under 70 yet this Fall....and is nearing the record for such a late sub 70 reading. It's just another reminder of just how warm it's been not only this year but in recent years. Summer has been tough to dislodge..
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Re: Florida Weather
The developing longwave pattern does favor a cold front of consequence by late month. I will actually believe a late month GFS cold front prediction. Cool weather fans...hang in there..
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Re: Florida Weather
So, did rainy season just end unusually early this year? I haven't checked the NWS for South Florida precipitation totals yet, but it has seemed bone dry since Dorian, except last week.
Edit: It seems four other posts have made this same exact observation

Edit: It seems four other posts have made this same exact observation



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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
psyclone wrote:The developing longwave pattern does favor a cold front of consequence by late month. I will actually believe a late month GFS cold front prediction. Cool weather fans...hang in there..
OH YES!! FINALLY, Fall weather on the way by the time we get to the end of the month. This morning's 06Z GFS 300+ hours out hinting strongly at this. I am Sooooo, so so looking forward to this after a such a brutal hot summer we have suffered through these past several months! This is long, long range, but I am loving the look of the GFS 500 mb analysis by the end of this month. I hope it comes close to fruition.

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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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- HurricaneBelle
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Re: Florida Weather
After a run of a month and a half of exceedingly dull weather across the state after Dorian and the initial scare it gave us, it looks like the second half of October is going to bring us some excitement in the form of a possible tropical storm by the end of the week, and the first "true" cold front of the year by the end of next.
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Re: Florida Weather
I am itching to give my AC a much deserved seasonal break and have some clear cool nights and sunny warm days. they are close
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Re: Florida Weather
Looks like the NAO is going to remain in the negative territory for the next two weeks at least, along with a negative AO, and a briefly going positive PNA might give us a brief shot of cooler weather within the next week or two. That front around Halloween looks interesting at the moment.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
Latest SPC Outlook has most of the Florida peninsula under a MARGINAL risk of possible severe weather with the approach of PTC 16 / soon to be Nestor for the entire day on Saturday and into early Sunday.
Also, of course as always, there will be the threat of some isolated tornadoes in a few areas concerning any landfalling cyclone.
Also, currently 54. 3 degrees at the home station. It feels GLORIOUS!!!! I am loving this, although it will only last for today for now.I have been waiting 5 months for a refreshing cool morning like this!! It would have been even cooler if not for the high upper level cloudiness streaming overhead thanks to our developing cyclone currently in the Central GOM at the time of this post.
We will get significant weather here with future Nestor moving through this weekend. 2-4 inches of rainfall is generally expected across North Florida and Southeast GA for this event, with some locales receiving upwards to 5 to 6 inches.
Also, of course as always, there will be the threat of some isolated tornadoes in a few areas concerning any landfalling cyclone.
Also, currently 54. 3 degrees at the home station. It feels GLORIOUS!!!! I am loving this, although it will only last for today for now.I have been waiting 5 months for a refreshing cool morning like this!! It would have been even cooler if not for the high upper level cloudiness streaming overhead thanks to our developing cyclone currently in the Central GOM at the time of this post.
We will get significant weather here with future Nestor moving through this weekend. 2-4 inches of rainfall is generally expected across North Florida and Southeast GA for this event, with some locales receiving upwards to 5 to 6 inches.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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- HurricaneBelle
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Re: Florida Weather
We still haven't dropped below 70 at KTPA, but it was 71 with a dewpoint of 58 as the sun rose this morning so the windows were opened and the A/C turned off for the first time this fall.
Next week's "cool down" looking more elusive by the day (maybe one day with low 80s and DPs in the low 60s), so here's hoping for the pre-Halloween real front the week after.
Next week's "cool down" looking more elusive by the day (maybe one day with low 80s and DPs in the low 60s), so here's hoping for the pre-Halloween real front the week after.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
As far as the big Halloween cool (cold) down as shown by the GFS, the Euro is having none of it as least as of 00Z. We will see what the 12Z shows.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
And yet again the Euro shouts to peninsula Florida - “no cold for you!” 
And this just in - 18z GFS backing off significantly on the Halloween cold front. No Surprise!

And this just in - 18z GFS backing off significantly on the Halloween cold front. No Surprise!

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- northjaxpro
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Re: Florida Weather
gatorcane wrote:And yet again the Euro shouts to peninsula Florida - “no cold for you!”
And this just in - 18z GFS backing off significantly on the Halloween cold front. No Surprise!
Don't crow just yet Gatorcane. You know darn too well how these models flip flop back and forth. Still way too early. I will bet the farm this will change again!!!

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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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- tropicwatch
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Re: Florida Weather
It is cool enough in northwest Florida. Our high today was 67 and that was midnight. 

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- HurricaneBelle
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Re: Florida Weather
Mesoscale Discussion 2072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0615 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019
Areas affected...West-central Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 182315Z - 190145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage and tornado threat is expected to
develop over the next couple of hours across the west-central
Florida Peninsula. Weather watch issuance appears unlikely.
DISCUSSION...The National Hurricane Center has Tropical Storm Nestor
in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The center of Nestor is forecast
to move northeastward toward the Florida Panhandle tonight.
Rainbands extend eastward away from the center covering much of the
eastern Gulf of Mexico with the eastern most bands located near the
western coast of Florida. Within that rainband, several
semi-discrete cells are ongoing with the most notable cells located
about 30 statute miles to the west of Tampa Bay. These storms are
located near a warm front and are along the eastern edge of moderate
instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE values from 1000 to 2000
J/kg. In addition, the Tampa Bay WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near
55 kt and 0-3 km storm relative helicity around 350 m2/s2. This
environment should enable the stronger cells to rotate and obtain
supercell characteristics. Some of these cells are expected to move
into the coastal areas. These cells should have a marginal wind
damage and tornado threat. However, there is also a chance that most
of the cells will remain offshore. For this reason, watch issuance
appears unlikely at this time.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
northjaxpro wrote:gatorcane wrote:And yet again the Euro shouts to peninsula Florida - “no cold for you!”
And this just in - 18z GFS backing off significantly on the Halloween cold front. No Surprise!
Don't crow just yet Gatorcane. You know darn too well how these models flip flop back and forth. Still way too early. I will bet the farm this will change again!!!
Yeah I agree they will flip flop around.

Seems a decent signal we should at least get some front with cooler weather down into at least the Central peninsula by Halloween. But not as cold as the GFS which had been bringing 40s into Central Florida.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Florida Weather
Looks what shows up on the GFS in about 8-9 days. Day 10 below. SE ridge! = no cool air for peninsula Florida if this setup holds. It does looks like a little bit of a cool down for North and Central Florida before this ridge sets up shop.


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Re: Florida Weather
The good news about a southeast ridge is at least it's too late to be hot. we're likely to have a meaningful cool front soon. with short days and long nights just a dry airmass will be magical and that is doable. Just hoping for "turn off AC" weather..
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Re: Florida Weather
gatorcane wrote:12Z Euro has above normal temps for Florida through the 10 day run.
Latest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks bears this out. Plus a wet signal. More late season tropical mischief? That's the combo that would support such a scenario
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