ATL: NESTOR - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs here.

[ronjon]

Looks like landfall extreme western panhandle of FL for 12z Euro if I extrapolate it between 24 hour points. Euro does not appear to strengthen it like other models but I have the low resolution version.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=mslp_uv850&runtime=2019101612&fh=72

Correction: its Mobile Bay landfall at 998 mb - 6 pm Saturday so its slower than other models.

[chaser1]

Just saw both the 12Z Euro as well as the new NHC 2:00pm TWO. Euro seems very much in line with the other Globals and suggests that 96L will develop as a direct result of it's interaction with, and eventual co-alignment with the separate mid level low forecast to develop over Texas and moving eastward from there. I do not see any model support for development that suggests 96L develops and moves on a further south track which the latest NHC TWO suggests, which appears to bring the system further east of Apalachicola perhaps closer to Ceder Key. This leads me to believe that "Nestor" will in fact develop quite near the N. Gulf coast while merging with this mid level 500mb feature in the process.... and NOT as an independent tropical low that by itself might trek further east under somewhat hostile upper level conditions and less likely to maintain it's own coherent vertical structure.

I think that if 96L were delayed in developing and remained stationary long enough to miss merging with the newly developing Texas low somewhere along the N. Gulf coast, that all models would then immediately back off developing it.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

12Z UKMET and 121Z GFS are pushing this more to the warm-core side than previous runs.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1184550929523269632

[ronjon]

Early guidance suggests Apalachicola FL. (Cape San Blas)

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

[Aric Dunn]

Gfs is doing better with the intitial conditions and organizing the southern circ that is there. After 48 hours it re develops circ way way to the ne..

[Dean4Storms]

Early guidance suggests Apalachicola FL. (Cape San Blas)

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Just don't see it going that far east.

[northjaxpro]

Well, the latest 18Z GFS has the cyclone coc landfalling in the Florida Big Bend around Saint Marks, which is just south of Tallahassee, on 12Z Saturday morning at 1001 mb.

Remember, it will be quite probable the system will be sheared, with the heaviest rain removed northeast and east of that CoC.

[ronjon]

18z HWRF at 981 mb about 100 miles south of Mobile at 51 hrs.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=96L&pkg=ref&runtime=2019101618&fh=51

[Dean4Storms]

:uarrow: Well, the latest 18Z GFS has the cyclone pushing inland Florida Big Bend around Saint Marks, which is just south of Tallahassee on 12Z Saturday morning at 1001 mb.

Yea, thinks it's a bit too fast.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Well, the latest 18Z GFS has the cyclone pushing inland Florida Big Bend around Saint Marks, which is just south of Tallahassee on 12Z Saturday morning at 1001 mb.

Yea, thinks it's a bit too fast.

We will see Dean.

[ronjon]

Definitely looks subtropical on 18z HWRF with a huge dry slot on its southern side.

[ronjon]

18z HWRF landfall Panama City at 979 mb.

[LarryWx]

18Z GEFS continues the trend toward more activity and faster with plentiful and very beneficial rainfall for much of FL (several inches) and up into the SE, especially near the coast.

*Corrected to say 18Z GEFS*

[northjaxpro]

18z HWRF landfall Panama City at 979 mb.

God let's hope the HWRF is too overly aggressive with this. This is the last thing Panama City needs is a STRONG Cat 1 / borderline Cat 2 Cane in that run.

But remember, we did not , nor the models saw Michael strengthening into a monster within 48 hours of landfall there last year either.

Set up currently with this system will not allow God forbid for anything very sttong HOPEFULLY !!

[Hurricaneman]

18z HWRF landfall Panama City at 979 mb.

God let's hope the HWRF is too overly aggressive with this. This is the last thing Panama City needs is a STRONG Cat 1 / borderline Cat 2 Cane in that run.

But remember, we did not , nor the models saw Michael strengthening into a monster within 48 hours of landfall there last year either.

Set up currently with this system will not allow God forbid for anything very sttong HOPEFULLY !!

Verbatim looks similar to earl in 1998

[northjaxpro]

18z HWRF landfall Panama City at 979 mb.

God let's hope the HWRF is too overly aggressive with this. This is the last thing Panama City needs is a STRONG Cat 1 / borderline Cat 2 Cane in that run.

But remember, we did not , nor the models saw Michael strengthening into a monster within 48 hours of landfall there last year either.

Set up currently with this system will not allow God forbid for anything very sttong HOPEFULLY !!

Verbatim looks similar to earl in 1998

You know, you may end up being right using Earl as an excellent analog for this current system. I remember tracking Earl as I was worried about my extended family there in Lynn Haven evacuating from that storm. Earl ended up being a soild Cat 2 cyclone too as it ended up becoming much stronger than initially forcasted by the models then at that particular time. I also remember Earl for not truly having a defined eyewall during his lifespan. It was quite an unusual and atypical cyclone.