ATL: NESTOR - Models

[Aric Dunn]

18z euro inists it wont organize currently or even by tomorrow night. Has pretty much nw over land by this time tomorrow.

Not currently happening so ill throw this euro run and 12z out.
However it is quite a bit farther south and east than the 12z

[HurricaneBelle]

18z euro inists it wont organize currently or even by tomorrow night. Has pretty much nw over land by this time tomorrow.

Not currently happening so ill throw this euro run and 12z out.
However it is quite a bit farther south and east than the 12z

Historically, GFS seems to do better with sloppy gulf systems than the Euro

[DestinHurricane]

18z euro inists it wont organize currently or even by tomorrow night. Has pretty much nw over land by this time tomorrow.

Not currently happening so ill throw this euro run and 12z out.
However it is quite a bit farther south and east than the 12z

Historically, GFS seems to do better with sloppy gulf systems than the Euro

IIRC, during Nate the ECWMF insisted on a stronger landfall near the Panama City area for a while. GFS won there.

[gatorcane]

The GFS depiction of 96l phasing with the front is interesting. Note the southern low/vorticity (what we are tracking now) gets absorbed by some frontal vorticity that develops to the north seemingly out of nowhere. Otherwise the southern vorticity would be heading ENE towards the west coast of Florida and possibly organizing.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z Euro is about the strongest and fastest Euro yet with it down to 997 mb just S of the SE tip of LA before landfall over the FL panhandle near 3 PM on Saturday. Also, it gives the heaviest rainfall for the SE as a whole of any Euro run yet.

[cycloneye]

Great consensus among the Bams, HWRF, GFS, HMON guidance on the track at 00z.

[LarryWx]

The 18Z Euro is about the strongest and fastest Euro yet with it down to 997 mb just S of the SE tip of LA before landfall over the FL panhandle near 3 PM on Saturday. Also, it gives the heaviest rainfall for the SE as a whole of any Euro run yet.

Supporting the stronger, wetter, and faster 18Z Euro: the 18Z EPS is the most active of at least the last 4 runs with numerous members at sub 1003 mb and a pretty large number (I can't count them) sub 999. This is looking to have the most effect on a good portion of the SE US of any tropical cyclone yet this season.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: similar to last run/987 mb:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 24.4N 92.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.10.2019 36 25.6N 90.7W 1001 33
0000UTC 19.10.2019 48 28.0N 86.8W 993 47
1200UTC 19.10.2019 60 30.0N 84.4W 987 44
0000UTC 20.10.2019 72 32.0N 81.8W 995 41
1200UTC 20.10.2019 84 34.4N 77.6W 998 39
0000UTC 21.10.2019 96 36.4N 73.4W 999 41
1200UTC 21.10.2019 108 36.4N 70.3W 1003 36
0000UTC 22.10.2019 120 36.0N 68.5W 1008 31
1200UTC 22.10.2019 132 35.6N 69.2W 1012 31
0000UTC 23.10.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: way faster than prior runs and strongest run yet at 990 mb!

[Nimbus]

00Z GFS has a 999 MB low coming in just north of Tampa, and the HWRF is showing a weaker system as well. Hopefully no TS winds if the pressure is only 999.

[N2FSU]

6z GFS better organized/slightly stronger


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[northjaxpro]

06Z GFS has landfall near Panama City Saturday morning at 998 mb.

[Aric Dunn]

6z HMON brings it to 985 and a hurricane just before landfall. Does someone jumping around right after it peaks near the coast.

But point being. Conditions might just be enough to allow a minimal hurricane. Its forward motion is key. If it moves with all levels of shear than it can.

[Bigwhitey]

6z HMON brings it to 985 and a hurricane just before landfall. Does someone jumping around right after it peaks near the coast.

But point being. Conditions might just be enough to allow a minimal hurricane. Its forward motion is key. If it moves with all levels of shear than it can.

I don’t recall the HMON being listed among the most reliable of models. Too many memories of Michael seem to have people on edge. Not that they can’t be blamed

[jconsor]

Two of the past three HWRF runs deepen it to the low 980s with winds reaching lower end cat 1 in the NE gulf, though weakening a little before landfall.

6z HMON brings it to 985 and a hurricane just before landfall. Does someone jumping around right after it peaks near the coast.

But point being. Conditions might just be enough to allow a minimal hurricane. Its forward motion is key. If it moves with all levels of shear than it can.

[Aric Dunn]

6z euro brings it down to 985. But also reforms center farther north.

[Jr0d]

00Z GFS has a 999 MB low coming in just north of Tampa, and the HWRF is showing a weaker system as well. Hopefully no TS winds if the pressure is only 999.

Given there will be baroclinic forcing, I would expect TS winds with a 999mb low.

[ronjon]

Two of the past three HWRF runs deepen it to the low 980s with winds reaching lower end cat 1 in the NE gulf, though weakening a little before landfall.

6z HMON brings it to 985 and a hurricane just before landfall. Does someone jumping around right after it peaks near the coast.

But point being. Conditions might just be enough to allow a minimal hurricane. Its forward motion is key. If it moves with all levels of shear than it can.

00z UKMET brings it down to 987 mb in the NE GOM - for a global that's pretty low and generally indicative of a CAT 1 hurricane.

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/florida/sea-level-pressure/20191019-0900z.html

[chris_fit]

I just wanna say the GFS has been sniffing 'something' out for the longest time in the W Car and/or GoM - for weeks back - with a timeline of the 17-18th.... and well, look what we have here. Whether this was a case of 'a broken clock is right twice a day' or not - I dunno - but good job GFS on the long term sniffage.

[Nimbus]

00Z GFS has a 999 MB low coming in just north of Tampa, and the HWRF is showing a weaker system as well. Hopefully no TS winds if the pressure is only 999.

Given there will be baroclinic forcing, I would expect TS winds with a 999mb low.

There is a digging upper level low providing some shear from the south, but most of the models still show some kind of circulation persisting that will make landfall(now not in the Tampa bay area).