WPAC: BUALOI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

97W INVEST 191015 1200 3.0N 178.5E WPAC 15 0

[aspen]

The GFS has been very on-and-off on whether 97W develops, but the last two runs (12z and 18z) have shown it becoming a depression or named storm by this weekend. The system’s low latitude should keep it out of the cold wake left behind by Hagibis.

[euro6208]

EURO has a TS passing north of Saipan.

[euro6208]

GFS has a low latitude system struggling to organize as it tracks south of the Marianas to the Philippines.

[euro6208]

In addition, GFS and GEFS guidance since yesterday have indicated another tropical cyclone forming further east near Micronesia with the potential for rapid intensification. However, because ECMWF solutions and other forecast tools diverge on the location, rate of development, and the probability of enhanced rainfall associated with this low, this area is omitted from this outlook.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php

[mrbagyo]

Since SSD floater is on and off, we'll just create our own

[Hayabusa]

Still there on the latest Euro but weak, recently Euro has been on and off too.


97W is either a bust or not.

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/BmCUEaL
Some cold -90 pixals above Taburao supercell.

[Hayabusa]

Still lots of active ens. members

[euro6208]

GFS slightly stronger on the 06Z.

[euro6208]

Still no floater on this. Is a very large system.

[euro6208]

97W INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Oct 16, 2019:

Location: 3.0°N 176.9°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

[aspen]

The GFS is still on-and-off with significant development, but the 12z run takes 97W well south of the Marianas and through a region of 29-30 C SSTs that have been untouched this season, which could support the formation of a TD/TS if other environmental conditions are favorable.

[1900hurricane]

Trends over the last 48 hours or so of guidance have been for less development.

[mrbagyo]

[aspen]

The last few GFS runs, including the 00z, have barely shown 97W. Same goes for the Euro. I think by later tomorrow or Friday we may have a bit more confidence in whether it’s going to form or not, since most runs had it forming by Saturday or Sunday.

[Tailspin]

000
FXPQ50 PGUM 162223
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
823 AM ChST Thu Oct 17 2019

.Marianas Synopsis...
Andersen Air Force Base Doppler weather radar shows isolated showers
moving through the Marianas with isolated thunderstorms between
Saipan and Anatahan. The VAD wind profile indicates northeast
winds of 4 to 12 knots through the lowest 2 thousand feet of the
air. The buoys reveal combined seas of 3 to 5 feet and sea surface
temperature reading of 84 to 85.

&&

.Discussion...
Satellite shows a distinctly wet season pattern over most of
Micronesia, however, not a very active one. This includes newly
formed Tropical Depression 21W west of the Marianas, and upper-level
low near the islands, a monsoon trough between Chuuk and Wake, and a
disturbance east of the Marshall Islands. The trough should gradually
move toward the Marianas, bringing clouds and isolated thunderstorms
to the area Friday night and Saturday. Very little in the way of
substantial changes to the grids, just extended wind, wave and surf
grids so that NDFD could be extended.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
The eastern end of a modest monsoon trough reaches east-southeastward
from north of Chuuk at 10N152E, passing north of Kosrae at 8N165E
thru a weak circulation southeast of Majuro at 5N177E to end at
EQ180. A surface ridge can be seen south of the trough over Pohnpei.

The ridge of high pressure near Pohnpei should shift westward over
the next few days, introducing fair weather to Chuuk later today,
maintaining similar conditions to Pohnpei thru Friday and Kosrae
today. Farther east, the circulation southeast of Majuro is going to
keep showery weather there thru this evening. Once this circulation
has shifted west of Majuro on Friday, surface ridging should support
partly cloudy skies for Majuro thru Saturday. On the other hand, it
will bring wetness to Kosrae by late tonight, Pohnpei by Friday
evening and Chuuk near Saturday evening. After the passage of this
system, the same surface ridging in its wake will usher in nice
conditions to Kosrae Saturday afternoon, Pohnpei on Sunday and Chuuk
later next week. Finally, a trade-wind disturbance from east of the
Date Line might introduce more unstable weather to the region from
east to west later next week.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Palau and Yap...
A weak monsoon trough persists across far western Micronesia near 8N
from just east of Mindanao at 130E eastward to near Chuuk at 10N151E.
An upper-level trough runs north-northeastward from southeast of Yap
at 7N139E thru a low west of Tinian at 15N143E to another low near
the northern tip of the Mariana Islands at 22N145E.

Light winds near the trough axis should allow partly cloudy skies for
Koror thru Saturday, and Yap thru early this evening. The only
exception will be the possibility of afternoon thunderstorms near
Koror due to island heating. Then the upper-level features drifting
westward should cause a period of instability for Yap from late
tonight to Friday afternoon, and Koror from Sunday to Monday
afternoon.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Stanko/Chan

https://imgur.com/VDQ2yTK


https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satell ... ,m:d47ak7C

I think JMA give this a chance. If i have the correct lpa.


https://imgur.com/8JWAYg8


https://imgur.com/zXlRinq

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 161800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 04N 174E WNW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

It's back on the GFS 00Z