ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

A good possibility that NHC may go straght to TS and no doubt we will see an advisory package later this morning, or sooner.

[Ubuntwo]

A good possibility that NHC may go straght to TS and no doubt we will see an advisory package later this morning, or sooner.

They have no reason to jump to ts, last ascat as posted here can justify maybe 25kt max. It’s probably a depression but winds have got to catch up to get a name.

[GCANE]

I think the big suprise in this is that nothing developed in the EPAC.
A ton of high TPW air there.
If 96L spins up quickly, all that air will converge into the core.
It will all funnel through the Ismuthus of Tech.
Early indications on MIMIC-TPW may indicate this.
Same like what Micheal did last year.

[northjaxpro]

A good possibility that NHC may go straght to TS and no doubt we will see an advisory package later this morning, or sooner.

They have no reason to jump to ts, last ascat as posted here can justify maybe 25kt max. It’s probably a depression but winds have got to catch up to get a name.

I think by the time Recon gets in there later today, there is a real good chance it may be at TS intensity. The winds will catch up as the day progresses. This cyclone indeed may have some surprises up his sleeve and actually it is making me feel a bit uneasy currently. Latest reliable models, .now including the 00Z EURO, all now are showing a stronger cyclone going into the weekend.

[GCANE]

That big-ass convection to its east is insane.
500mb winds are out of the south.
All that convective debris will blow directly ahead of 96L and juice the GOM.
This is starting to look really serious.

[GCANE]

Late yesterday I saw 6500 CAPE in the GOM with some indication it may peak at 7000.
This is the highest I have ever seen in the GOM.
With these kind of conditions, shear may in fact not be a primary consideration.

[northjaxpro]

I was looking late yesterday and saw CAPE was at 6500 down in that area.That was insanely high. No wonder we saw so much lighning on satellite and radar data around the cyclone last night. The atmosphere in the Bay of Campeche is extremely juiced right now to say the least.

I am getting some funky vibes about this cyclone right now and my senses don't like what I am seeing and feeling about this system at the current time.

[GCANE]

Yup, high TPW air is going thru the IoT.
Buckle your seatbelts, this is going to be a ride.

[GCANE]

Holy crap, this thing is sucking everything out of the EPAC.
I just got a shiver down my spine.

[northjaxpro]

It indeed is GCANE. 96L has completely absorbed all of the energy from 17-E from the Eastern Pacific.

96L I believe more definitely now will become a well developed cyclone and it will surprise some folks.

[GCANE]

:uarrow: It indeed is GCANE. 96L has completely absorbed all of the energy from 17-E from the Eastern Pacific.

96L I believe more definitely now will become a well developed cyclone and it will surprise some folks.

This really suprised me.
All the models were showing 17-E developing and pulling all the juice out of the BoC system.

[northjaxpro]

I also watched Mark Suddath's video yesterday about this storm and indeed he expresses great interest in this very situation regarding that 96L had the potential to really consolidate into a formidble cyclone if it would be able to absorb the remnants of 17-E.

No question 96L has successfully accomplished that for sure!!

[northjaxpro]

I also watched Mark Suddath's video yesterday about this storm and indeed he expressed great interest in this very situation. He astutely stated that 96L had the potential to really consolidate into a formidable cyclone if it would be able to absorb the remnants of 17-E.

No question 96L has successfully accomplished that for sure!!

[slamdaddy]

So this is gonna be a Gomer Pyle storm perhaps???...SURPRISE SURPRISE SURPRISE. SHAZAAM!!!

[GCANE]

The big question is how will this interact with the forecasted PV Streamer late tomorrow.
How much convection and how well the vorts are stacked then will play the biggest part in seeing if this can intensify in the mid GOM.

[northjaxpro]

So this is gonna be a Gomer Pyle storm perhaps???...SURPRISE SURPRISE SURPRISE. SHAZAAM!!!

It very well could.

I always say this and it warrants me to say it again: NEVER, EVER underestimate cyclones which develop in the tropics!!!!

[GCANE]

Tilt of the UL Trough is key on intensification in the GOM.
GFS begins to tilt it negatively in 30 hrs.
If not, expect intensification all the way to landfall.
The jet backing this up looks to be forecasted relatively weak.
Good chance if 96L is stronger than expected at this point, its LL vort will overcome the UL vort from the trough.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: It indeed is GCANE. 96L has completely absorbed all of the energy from 17-E from the Eastern Pacific.

96L I believe more definitely now will become a well developed cyclone and it will surprise some folks.

This really suprised me.
All the models were showing 17-E developing and pulling all the juice out of the BoC system.

Nope. It is the exact opposite which has occured. 96L is pulling all of that energy into the BOC, and rather easily I will add. Suddath really hinted in his video yesterday that he thought this could happen and man was he spot on about that.

[northjaxpro]

Also, a stronger cyclone will likely move farther east as well and it will potentially put more of the Florida peninsula in play. I would not be surprised in the least to see this system move more E-NE as time progresses.

[GCANE]

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
POSTED