ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[facemane]

I suspect most people from Mississippi westward will not see much in the way of impacts from this. It should be highly sheared with most impacts on the east side. Rough surf and possibly minor coastal flooding could affect extreme SE Louisiana and Mississippi. Alabama and points eastward should see most of the impacts. These sheared systems always trend east. We will see.

Agreed, I woke up to a 50 degree morning here in Biloxi. We knew it was coming. This is why I had doubts about the Euro showing
a central La. landfall a few days ago.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Special Message from NHC Issued 17 Oct 2019 14:27 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 10 AM CDT.

[chaser1]

What a big system 96L is becoming, the short wave is ventilating it. I would expect that by it becoming more of a subtropical system the tropical storm force winds could reach the west coast of the peninsula. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/7LZp4MZ.jpg

Yep, I think you're right.... though I'll be surprised if this system will truly have sustained winds exceeding 40 knots. To your point though, much of that wind will likely be broadly fanning out east and north of center. I'd guess that Crystal River Fla. northward to west of Panama City should get plenty of T.S. force gusts. Gonna be a wet blustery 24 hours for the Tallahassee to Ceder Key corridor. Depending on tides, there could be some significant piling of water in the Horseshoe Beach area/Steinhatchee area all the way up to Apalachee Bay.

[cycloneye]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 10 AM CDT.

[northjaxpro]

What a big system 96L is becoming, the short wave is ventilating it. I would expect that by it becoming more of a subtropical system the tropical storm force winds could reach the west coast of the peninsula. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/7LZp4MZ.jpg

Yep, I think you're right.... though I'll be surprised if this system will truly have sustained winds exceeding 40 knots. To your point though, much of that wind will likely be broadly fanning out east and north of center. I'd guess that Crystal River Fla. northward to west of Panama City should get plenty of T.S. force gusts. Gonna be a wet blustery 24 hours for the Tallahassee to Ceder Key corridor. Depending on tides, there could be some significant piling of water in the Horseshoe Beach area/Steinhatchee area all the way up to Apalachee Bay.

Always have to watch for surge impacts in that area from Cedar Key and up and along the coast concerning Apalachee Bay.

[chaser1]

Special Message from NHC Issued 17 Oct 2019 14:27 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 10 AM CDT.

Given the timing here, there was just no way advisories could have been held off much longer. Plus with "landfall" (i use that term very loosely) expected for Saturday there's the need for people to be alert for those needing to take any action; Especially area's prone to coastal or river flooding.

[GCANE]

Larger area of high rain-rate convection developing.

[chaser1]

What a big system 96L is becoming, the short wave is ventilating it. I would expect that by it becoming more of a subtropical system the tropical storm force winds could reach the west coast of the peninsula. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/7LZp4MZ.jpg

Yep, I think you're right.... though I'll be surprised if this system will truly have sustained winds exceeding 40 knots. To your point though, much of that wind will likely be broadly fanning out east and north of center. I'd guess that Crystal River Fla. northward to west of Panama City should get plenty of T.S. force gusts. Gonna be a wet blustery 24 hours for the Tallahassee to Ceder Key corridor. Depending on tides, there could be some significant piling of water in the Horseshoe Beach area/Steinhatchee area all the way up to Apalachee Bay.

Always have to watch for surge impacts in that area from Cedar Key and up and along the coast concerning Apalachee Bay.

Has anyone already posted the expected (normal) tide times and heights for up there?

[Aric Dunn]

Circ becoming more defined very quickly. With deep convection continuing to expand. All the could debris and convection well north a east is not part of the circ.

[northjaxpro]

Special Message from NHC Issued 17 Oct 2019 14:27 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 10 AM CDT.

Given the timing here, there was just no way advisories could have been held off much longer. Plus with "landfall" (i use that term very loosely) expected for Saturday there's the need for people to be alert for those needing to take any action; Especially area's prone to coastal or river flooding.

Precisely Chaser! I touched on this very fact a bit earlier. NHC had to to get this out NOW. Time is of the absolute essence now. It is critical that advisories and public awareness get out about this system as impacts are imminent inside of 48 hours.

[NDG]

The drier cooler air is not making much headway offshore, lots of warm moist air over most of GOM for the system to intensify starting as fully tropical system, but eventually becoming more subtropical. IMO.

[TallyTracker]

Special Message from NHC Issued 17 Oct 2019 14:27 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 10 AM CDT.

Given the timing here, there was just no way advisories could have been held off much longer. Plus with "landfall" (i use that term very loosely) expected for Saturday there's the need for people to be alert for those needing to take any action; Especially area's prone to coastal or river flooding.

Precisely Chaser! I touched on this very fact a bit earlier. NHC had to to get this out NOW. Time is of the absolute essence now. It is critical that advisories and public awareness get out about this system as impacts are imminent inside of 48 hours.

It is critical. Lots of people are downplaying this storm, but 45 mph+ wind gusts in the area hit by Hurricane Michael last year will be very bad and dangerous. Many people will need to seek shelter since they live in tents, trailers, and tarped houses. It doesn’t need to be like Michael to cause a major impact.

[jaxfladude]

A good possibility that NHC may go straght to TS and no doubt we will see an advisory package later this morning, or sooner.

They have no reason to jump to ts, last ascat as posted here can justify maybe 25kt max. It’s probably a depression but winds have got to catch up to get a name.

I think by the time Recon gets in there later today, there is a real good chance it may be at TS intensity. The winds will catch up as the day progresses. This cyclone indeed may have some surprises up his sleeve and actually it is making me feel a bit uneasy currently. Latest reliable models, .now including the 00Z EURO, all now are showing a stronger cyclone going into the weekend.

Any impact for us here in NE FLA/SE GA?

[tolakram]

I think their story, at least the latest update, is solid.

https://www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2019/10/17/tropical-storm-nestor-expected-form-today-gulf-mexico/4007112002/

[cycloneye]

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to
the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to
Clearwater, Florida.

[chaser1]

Circ becoming more defined very quickly. With deep convection continuing to expand. All the could debris and convection well north a east is not part of the circ.

At least initially, this looks to have a fairly tight center. Organizationally, I'd guess this could be close to a weak T.D. Lets see how soon we begin to see some banding features. I'm still thinking the LLC trying to deepen is around 22N and 96W

[Nuno]

Are conditions favorable for moderate deepening up until landfall?

[northjaxpro]

They have no reason to jump to ts, last ascat as posted here can justify maybe 25kt max. It’s probably a depression but winds have got to catch up to get a name.

I think by the time Recon gets in there later today, there is a real good chance it may be at TS intensity. The winds will catch up as the day progresses. This cyclone indeed may have some surprises up his sleeve and actually it is making me feel a bit uneasy currently. Latest reliable models, .now including the 00Z EURO, all now are showing a stronger cyclone going into the weekend.

Any impact for us here in NE FLA/SE GA?

Impacts for NE FL and SE GA will primarily be significant rainfall. Could see 1-3 inches generally for the event, although some spots could receive upwards to 5-6 inches. It will be breezy , but the more TS winds will be experienced across the Big Bend region and Gulf coast regions primarily, UNLESS, the track deviates farther south and east. If that happens, then we could see a bit more in wind impacts across Northeast Florida. Just monitor closely.

[MetsIslesNoles]

It is critical. Lots of people are downplaying this storm, but 45 mph+ wind gusts in the area hit by Hurricane Michael last year will be very bad and dangerous. Many people will need to seek shelter since they live in tents, trailers, and tarped houses yet. Tallahassee Democrat was downplaying it this morning cause it won’t be like Michael. But it doesn’t need to be like Michael to cause a major impact.

TDO is stupid to downplay. They forget that Hermine didn't get over 70mph here and Tally had all kinds of problems. Between the 40 day drought and the little bit of rain we just had, 45mph here or more will take out plenty of branches and trees.

[HurricaneBelle]

NHC likes the FL panhandle for greatest impacts, 53% chance of TS winds at Panama City, 49% Apalachicola, 48% Tallahassee, only 8% in Tampa.