ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

That NHC Cone is very thin all the way to the panhandle.

The cone is thin because it's a 48 hr forecast, it has nothing to do with the potential effects of the storm and where they'll be felt. Especially in a storm like this, which may have subtropical characteristics, the effects will be felt in an even wider area outside the cone.

The cone is great if all you care about is where the precise center of the system is likely to go, otherwise it's largely useless.

[toad strangler]

That NHC Cone is very thin all the way to the panhandle.

The cone is thin because it's a 48 hr forecast, it has nothing to do with the potential effects of the storm and where they'll be felt. Especially in a storm like this, which may have subtropical characteristics, the effects will be felt in an even wider area outside the cone.

The cone is great if all you care about is where the precise center of the system is likely to go, otherwise it's largely useless.

I get all of that. This could be like a TS Andrea in 2013 where the worst weather was well S and E of the center. BUT, I though the NHC cone was a predetermined size derived from previous accuracy at each hour interval.

[chaser1]

Live visible

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=3326.8284912109375&y=6426.84228515625

floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=604.9268798828125&y=1248.9555053710938

GOES image viewer
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/floater.php?stormid=AL162019

Great Views! Nice to be able to increase the number of frames in loop for a longer/better look at genesis. Overall broader circulation appears to be becoming a bit more NNE/SSW stretched. That suggests to me that the mid level low is already beginning to move toward the N.E. I'd be surprised if the LLC forming to the southwest were to continue to develop entirely independent of the broader mid level low stretching north and east of it. As such, the LLC will likely begin moving N.E.'ward while trying to play catch-up. That formula would retard that much deepening unless the LLC were to reform or become better vertically co-located with the leading mid-level low. I'd guess that recon later today will find T.S. winds but primarily N.E. of center (and also extending well east and north of center as well.

[tropicwatch]

That NHC Cone is very thin all the way to the panhandle.

The cone is thin because it's a 48 hr forecast, it has nothing to do with the potential effects of the storm and where they'll be felt. Especially in a storm like this, which may have subtropical characteristics, the effects will be felt in an even wider area outside the cone.

The cone is great if all you care about is where the precise center of the system is likely to go, otherwise it's largely useless.

In this case the cone does help. This is forecast to be a lopsided storm and here in Panama City any move to the right could make a big difference. If we get the worst part, trees that have damaged root systems that didn't come down during Michael will probably come down. People with tarps on there roofs will encounter more water damage. We also have a lot of people in trailers and tents. This is not good.

[Emmett_Brown]

The size and orientation of the wind field will be very interesting with this storm. Since it will be phasing with a trough, and exhibits extra tropical characteristics, winds could extend well away from the center. Could be a severe weather threat to the FL Pen as well.

[GCANE]

Really nice tower firing NE of the CoC with heavy lightning.
Looks like that'll setup to be the main feeder band.

[Frank P]

All of MS coastal waters are now included in a tropical storm warning.... does not apply to any MS coastal land areas however.. thus my house is only about 200 yards from being in a TS warning.... hard to go against climatology this late in the season.... hate to see the hurricane Michael area impacted again...

[psyclone]

That NHC Cone is very thin all the way to the panhandle.

The cone is thin because it's a 48 hr forecast, it has nothing to do with the potential effects of the storm and where they'll be felt. Especially in a storm like this, which may have subtropical characteristics, the effects will be felt in an even wider area outside the cone.

The cone is great if all you care about is where the precise center of the system is likely to go, otherwise it's largely useless.

I get all of that. This could be like a TS Andrea in 2013 where the worst weather was well S and E of the center. BUT, I though the NHC cone was a predetermined size derived from previous accuracy at each hour interval.

It is a predetermined size. It looks thinner when the storm is moving quicker. it's pretty much an optical illusion. Slow a storm down enough...and the cone morphs into a giant circle.

[GCANE]

Just what I was afraid of.
GFS run-to-run showing progressively less negative tilt with the UL trough.
Forecast to interact around 12Z tomorrow.
Not much time for error here.
Hopefully, this doesn't catch a lot of people by surprise.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just what I was afraid of.
GFS run-to-run showing progressively less negative tilt with the UL trough.
Forecast to interact around 12Z tomorrow.
Not much time for error here.
Hopefully, this doesn't catch a lot of people by surprise.

Interesting... If I may ask, where are the people located that might get surprised?... would it be a track change, or just a surprise due to strength?

[gulf701]

Well, here we go again. Sure hope "Sixteen" will not reach hurricane strength, we have homes still in structural repair, roofs still with tarps, and many are still fighting insurance. We have made progress, but I am concerned about new setbacks. We need the rain desperately, but we can do without the forecast wind and wind driven rain. Gulf and Bay counties really need this to move out fast.

A partial posting from Tallahassee NWS:
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Port Saint Joe
- Cape San Blas

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 70 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Friday evening until
Saturday afternoon

[GCANE]

Just what I was afraid of.
GFS run-to-run showing progressively less negative tilt with the UL trough.
Forecast to interact around 12Z tomorrow.
Not much time for error here.
Hopefully, this doesn't catch a lot of people by surprise.

Interesting... If I may ask, where are the people located that might get surprised?... would it be a track change, or just a surprise due to strength?

More on strength at this point.

[tropicwatch]

Don't see this very often but PTC Sixteen is pulling moisture in from the Pacific.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/natl/mimictpw_natl_latest.gif

[GCANE]

Don't see this very often but PTC Sixteen is pulling moisture in from the Pacific.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/natl/mimictpw_natl_latest.gif

Same happened with Michael last year.

[caneman]

My guess is that T.S. conditions will extend a bit further east and south then forecasted. With exception to one or two discreet squalls I don't think that too much of a wind event would extend south of Cedar Key though

Actually untrue. I've lived along Clearwater Beach for 40 plus years. Anything coming this direction will have pretty good affects on us especially if closer to Cedar Key. On the coast in Pinellas we often lose power from storms passing by on this coast. These type storms are often spread out.

I'm not sure what you think is untrue. NHC projected landfall is near Panama City. If that verifies, I do believe that wind field impact could extend further to the east then presently forecast. However, I highly doubt that Clearwater would experience considerable periods of squalls with wind gusts exceeding 40 mph with a landfall that occurs west of Apalachicola. Now, if landfall were to occur significantly further east and near Cedar Key.... then yes, that would be a different story altogether.

Because of the shape of Florida it could easily go east of Appalachacola. Further the storm will likely be very broad so it wouldnt be affects just a bit 'east and south' of landfall. Affects would be well South and East. Winds aren't usually the primary concern with these type systems for us but storm surge and flooding are very real concerns.

[psyclone]

Hopefully this system ends up as a net benefit for most bringing needed rainfall while not becoming too strong. I would imagine weak, fast moving, beneficial is the most likely scenario at this point but the tropics can surprise.. Looking forward to some gusty "Halloween" weather and view this as the first step toward an eventual transition to Fall locally.

[tropicwatch]

Hopefully this system ends up as a net benefit for most bringing needed rainfall while not becoming too strong. I would imagine weak, fast moving, beneficial is the most likely scenario at this point but the tropics can surprise.. Looking forward to some gusty "Halloween" weather and view this as the first step toward an eventual transition to Fall locally.

That is one good thing with the front. We are sitting at 68 in Panama City. Won't be too hot after losing power.

[chaser1]

Just what I was afraid of.
GFS run-to-run showing progressively less negative tilt with the UL trough.
Forecast to interact around 12Z tomorrow.
Not much time for error here.
Hopefully, this doesn't catch a lot of people by surprise.

Interesting... If I may ask, where are the people located that might get surprised?... would it be a track change, or just a surprise due to strength?

More on strength at this point.

Looking like this system will phase in with the mid level low dropping out of Texas as models had already depicted. Only thing I see different is that much of the vorticity associated with developing low out of Texas, does appear to be dropping a bit more to the south and into the N. GOM. I think that'll further add confidence to forecast landfall going forward. Might help (eventual) Nestor deepen a little more then presently forecast as a sub-tropical type system. Maybe that'll result in NHC bumping up forecast winds from 50 mph to 60 mph but that wouldn't be all that alarming. What might be a bit of a surprise to some folks along the N. Gulf, could be a quickening of deteriorating weather conditions along the Louisiana to W. Panhandle areas given the merging of the two systems. Perhaps this will mean a broader breadth of tropical force storm conditions possibly spreading well to the north in advance and well removed from the disturbance COC a little sooner then anticipated.

[TallyTracker]

The St. Marks area east to Steinhatchee will likely get a significant surge. I went down to St. Marks after Michael and the water marks were at the top of the palm trees. Even a weaker storm like this will likely inundate a large section of the coast in the Big Bend.

[DestinHurricane]

I would put the chances of a hurricane at 5%