Texas Fall 2019

[weatherdude1108]

1.5 inches of much needed rain at my parent's house in SA last night! Looks like much of south Texas saw beneficial rain last night. Now it's a nice cool and cloudy day

We got between 0.2" and 0.25" at my place in Cedar Park last night and this morning. Not enough, but better than 0.00" I suppose. I saw the 12Z GFS flipped back to 2 to 4 inches for the SA and Austin corridor through Nov 1st. Wish I could freeze it there!

[weatherdude1108]

The 12Z GFS flipped back to widespread 2 to 4 inches+ through November 1st, at this time.

[weatherdude1108]

I guess we are entering our second severe weather potential time of year -- 1. Spring, 2. Fall.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 161940
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
240 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Very light rain ongoing south of I-10 and HWY 90. Widespread
cloudiness have kept temperatures a couple of degrees cooler than
previously forecasted. Cooler and drier air continues to filter
through the area in the wake of last nights frontal passage.
Tonight, rain will be generally to our south, and temperatures get
down into the 50s. Thursday, an upper low moves through the area
from the west. Though we remain quite dry in the lower levels, this
disturbance may pull in enough residual moisture to generate some
showers and thunder, in our western counties tomorrow afternoon.
Thursday temperatures stay cool and mild as we keep that northerly
wind. By Thursday night, southeasterly winds return bringing warmer
and more moist air back from the Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
With the return of southerly winds, we start a warming trend on
Friday and into the weekend. By Saturday and Sunday we are back in
the 90s with overnight night lows in the muggy 60s. Another front
approaches on Sunday night, giving the area another chance for storms
Sunday night into Monday. There may be a possibility for these
storms to be strong as there is some divergence in the jet stream.
This area of diffluence is generally over North Texas, but it will
be something to watch in future model runs. Frontal passage will only
drop temperatures about 10 degrees, bringing us back down to normal
values through Monday.

[Cpv17]

The 12Z GFS flipped back to widespread 2 to 4 inches+ through November 1st, at this time.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019101612/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

Haha yeah I’m not falling for that again.

[South Texas Storms]

The 12Z GFS flipped back to widespread 2 to 4 inches+ through November 1st, at this time.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019101612/gfs_apcpn_scus_64.png

Haha yeah I’m not falling for that again.

There is some problem with the total precipitation forecast maps on the GFS. At hour 216, rainfall amounts in the maps almost double from the previous 6 hours. Scroll through the entire run of the total precipitation and you will see what I'm talking about.

Regardless it looks like we will likely see 2 more cold fronts over the next 10 days. Each one could produce 0.50-1.00 inch of rain. If we could get these on a regular basis we will be in good shape!

[CaptinCrunch]

The GFS was broken before the upgrades, and it still has issues after the upgrades.

I side with the EURO about 80% of the time.

[Cpv17]

0z Euro sends down the hammer day 9 & 10.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Any bit of rain has been slowly disappearing out of the forecast. On a brighter side of things, we made it down to the upper 30s this morning.

[CaptinCrunch]

Any bit of rain has been slowly disappearing out of the forecast. On a brighter side of things, we made it down to the upper 30s this morning.

It was 44 at the house this morning, felt good out, however my dog thought the world had come to an end when he got put out, that face staring back through the door had that WTF look

[Portastorm]

Any bit of rain has been slowly disappearing out of the forecast. On a brighter side of things, we made it down to the upper 30s this morning.

It was 44 at the house this morning, felt good out, however my dog thought the world had come to an end when he got put out, that face staring back through the door had that WTF look

LOL! Yeah, I have two big dogs (each 85+ pounds) and I get that look when it's raining. I open the back door to let them out and they get to the edge of the overhang and turn back and look at me with the "you expect us to potty in THIS weather?!"

The cooler weather here in Austin though has been nice for evening dog walks.

[Brent]

0z Euro sends down the hammer day 9 & 10.

Lol no kidding a huge swath of snow in Eastern Oklahoma

I suppose a picture would be better

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The 0z Euro had us sandwiched between two upper level highs leaving no where to go for that low at 10 days. Little further south in DJF and we would be some happy folks lol

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose had a blog regarding the CPC's Winter Outlook today. With no clear signal for La Nina or El Nino, hard to predict, but doesn't look great for parts of Texas as far as temperatures or precipitation (warmer and drier than average).



Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

NOAA Forecasting a Warmer and Drier than Normal Winter Across Central Texas.

Thursday, October 17, 2019 3:51 PM
​

The upcoming winter is shaping up to fairly mild across most of the country. That's according to the official winter weather outlook issued Thursday by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Forecasters look for clues in the oceans and the atmosphere in trying to figure out the upcoming winter's climate pattern. This fall, one of the biggest clues or climate drivers, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is in a neutral phase. In other words, there is no El Niño or La Niña in place. According to CPC forecasters, in the absence of El Niño or La Niña, long-term trends become a key predictor for the outlook, while other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), will likely play a larger role in determining winter weather. For example, the AO influences the number of arctic air masses that intrude into the U.S., but its predictability is unfortunately limited to a couple weeks.

"Without either El Nino or La Nina conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Despite these large swings, temperatures overall are still expected to average warmer than normal.

NOAA's winter outlook shows the greatest likelihood for warmer-than-normal conditions are in Alaska and Hawaii, with more modest probabilities for above-average temperatures spanning large parts of the remaining lower 48, from the West across the South and up the eastern seaboard.

The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter.

In regards to precipitation, wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in Alaska and Hawaii this winter, along with portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Drier-than-average conditions are most likely for Louisiana, parts of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma as well areas of northern and central California. Across Central Texas, the outlook calls for slightly increased odds precipitation will average drier than normal.

The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average precipitation.

In regards to drought, abnormally dry conditions are currently present across much of the Southern U.S., with areas of the most severe drought in the Four Corners region of the Southwest, central Texas and parts of the Southeast.

Drought is expected to improve in portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Alaska and Hawaii. However winter rainfall is not forecast to be sufficient to cause significant drought improvement across Central and South Texas. Drought conditions are forecast to persist across Central Texas and the southwestern U.S. Drought development is expected to occur in parts of central California.





https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

[starsfan65]

Bob Rose had a blog regarding the CPC's Winter Outlook today. With no clear signal for La Nina or El Nino, hard to predict, but doesn't look great for parts of Texas as far as temperatures or precipitation (warmer and drier than average).



Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

NOAA Forecasting a Warmer and Drier than Normal Winter Across Central Texas.

Thursday, October 17, 2019 3:51 PM
​

The upcoming winter is shaping up to fairly mild across most of the country. That's according to the official winter weather outlook issued Thursday by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Forecasters look for clues in the oceans and the atmosphere in trying to figure out the upcoming winter's climate pattern. This fall, one of the biggest clues or climate drivers, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is in a neutral phase. In other words, there is no El Niño or La Niña in place. According to CPC forecasters, in the absence of El Niño or La Niña, long-term trends become a key predictor for the outlook, while other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), will likely play a larger role in determining winter weather. For example, the AO influences the number of arctic air masses that intrude into the U.S., but its predictability is unfortunately limited to a couple weeks.

"Without either El Nino or La Nina conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Despite these large swings, temperatures overall are still expected to average warmer than normal.

NOAA's winter outlook shows the greatest likelihood for warmer-than-normal conditions are in Alaska and Hawaii, with more modest probabilities for above-average temperatures spanning large parts of the remaining lower 48, from the West across the South and up the eastern seaboard.

The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter.

In regards to precipitation, wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in Alaska and Hawaii this winter, along with portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Drier-than-average conditions are most likely for Louisiana, parts of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma as well areas of northern and central California. Across Central Texas, the outlook calls for slightly increased odds precipitation will average drier than normal.

The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average precipitation.

In regards to drought, abnormally dry conditions are currently present across much of the Southern U.S., with areas of the most severe drought in the Four Corners region of the Southwest, central Texas and parts of the Southeast.

Drought is expected to improve in portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Alaska and Hawaii. However winter rainfall is not forecast to be sufficient to cause significant drought improvement across Central and South Texas. Drought conditions are forecast to persist across Central Texas and the southwestern U.S. Drought development is expected to occur in parts of central California.

https://www.lcra.org/PublishingImages/Lists/WeatherBlog/BobsView/WinterT.png
https://www.lcra.org/PublishingImages/Lists/WeatherBlog/BobsView/WinterP.png
https://www.lcra.org/PublishingImages/Lists/WeatherBlog/BobsView/Untitled.png

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

I don't like it at all!!

[rwfromkansas]

I pretty much ignore CPC winter outlooks, so I’m not concerned. They always seem to put us hot and dry unless it’s an El Niño year.

If it’s dry as a bone in a month, then maybe.

[Cpv17]

Bob Rose had a blog regarding the CPC's Winter Outlook today. With no clear signal for La Nina or El Nino, hard to predict, but doesn't look great for parts of Texas as far as temperatures or precipitation (warmer and drier than average).



Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

NOAA Forecasting a Warmer and Drier than Normal Winter Across Central Texas.

Thursday, October 17, 2019 3:51 PM
​

The upcoming winter is shaping up to fairly mild across most of the country. That's according to the official winter weather outlook issued Thursday by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Forecasters look for clues in the oceans and the atmosphere in trying to figure out the upcoming winter's climate pattern. This fall, one of the biggest clues or climate drivers, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is in a neutral phase. In other words, there is no El Niño or La Niña in place. According to CPC forecasters, in the absence of El Niño or La Niña, long-term trends become a key predictor for the outlook, while other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), will likely play a larger role in determining winter weather. For example, the AO influences the number of arctic air masses that intrude into the U.S., but its predictability is unfortunately limited to a couple weeks.

"Without either El Nino or La Nina conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Despite these large swings, temperatures overall are still expected to average warmer than normal.

NOAA's winter outlook shows the greatest likelihood for warmer-than-normal conditions are in Alaska and Hawaii, with more modest probabilities for above-average temperatures spanning large parts of the remaining lower 48, from the West across the South and up the eastern seaboard.

The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter.

In regards to precipitation, wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in Alaska and Hawaii this winter, along with portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Drier-than-average conditions are most likely for Louisiana, parts of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma as well areas of northern and central California. Across Central Texas, the outlook calls for slightly increased odds precipitation will average drier than normal.

The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average precipitation.

In regards to drought, abnormally dry conditions are currently present across much of the Southern U.S., with areas of the most severe drought in the Four Corners region of the Southwest, central Texas and parts of the Southeast.

Drought is expected to improve in portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Alaska and Hawaii. However winter rainfall is not forecast to be sufficient to cause significant drought improvement across Central and South Texas. Drought conditions are forecast to persist across Central Texas and the southwestern U.S. Drought development is expected to occur in parts of central California.

https://www.lcra.org/PublishingImages/Lists/WeatherBlog/BobsView/WinterT.png
https://www.lcra.org/PublishingImages/Lists/WeatherBlog/BobsView/WinterP.png
https://www.lcra.org/PublishingImages/Lists/WeatherBlog/BobsView/Untitled.png

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

Those forecasts are trash. Don’t put stock in that load of crap.

[Brent]

while we're arguing over rain its been another stunning day here

I hope we get some days like this in the winter if its not gonna snow

[TheProfessor]

0z Euro sends down the hammer day 9 & 10.

Lol no kidding a huge swath of snow in Eastern Oklahoma

I suppose a picture would be better

https://i.ibb.co/0mfMN0L/Screenshot-2019-10-17-12-29-05.png

The most interesting thing was that the Kuchera ratios for that storm were still showing a large swath of 15 inches of snow, which is insanely impressive for an Oklahoma snow storm in October.

[Cpv17]

while we're arguing over rain its been another stunning day here

I hope we get some days like this in the winter if its not gonna snow

You guys don’t seem to get the overriding from the pacific that SETX does after cold fronts. Nothing but clouds down here and even light rain at times.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I remember in the 13-14 and 14-15 winters when the CPC had us well above average and it was exactly the opposite.

Yeah they are trash.