ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

This is organizing really fast and looks better every hour or so. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes significantly stronger than most of the global models and nhc advisories show at this moment, especially if it ends up further East and has a bit more time to intensify since the current location of the storm is South of model initialization.

[tropicwatch]

Pressure might be sub 1000 now. The HH is not to the center yet and reporting around 1003mb.

[northjaxpro]

Indeed looks like it is headed towards the peninsula. Even if the center of the low tracks into the panhandle, it will be points east including the peninsula that will see the most squally weather.

Loop:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

⁸

Agree. That is why SPC has all of the peninsula under a Marginal Risk for severe weather as Nestor CoC mskes lamdfall either in the Eastern Panhandle or Big Bend region. Nestor is a large storm with his impacts being felt over a large area.

[GCANE]

Still sucking the heavy juice out of the EPAC

[caneman]

Indeed looks like it is headed towards the peninsula. Even if the center of the low tracks into the panhandle, it will be points east including the peninsula that will see the most squally weather.

Loop:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

⁸

Agree. That is why SPC has all of the peninsula under a Marginal Risk for severe weather as Nestor CoC mskes lamdfall either in the Eastern Panhandle or Big Bend region. Nestor is a large storm with his impacts being felt over a large area.

This has Big Bend written all over it. Significant affects will be felt likely all the way down through the Tampa bay area.

[beoumont]

Recon is going to find a giant woodpecker, based on satellite presentation [imgur][/imgur]

[cjrciadt]

Time to name this

[NDG]

The CoC is definitely SW of the deep convection and not NW like the Euro had it forecasted to be, by looking at the recon's report so far.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking more and more like the ukmet track will hold if not even farther east . I dont see the center reformation happening so far north. Center appears alread well south of guidance. Somewhere centeral gulf well south of the mouth of the Mississippi

[northjaxpro]

The CoC is definitely SW of the deep convection and not NW like the Euro had it forecasted to be, by looking at the recon's report so far.

Yep. The CoC is just outside of that deep convection. I mentioned this a short time ago in that Recon is about to find a strengthening cyclone.

[northjaxpro]

Florida peninsula will really have to be on heightened watch for potential of severe storms and quick tornado spin-ups tomorrow as Nestor.moves through the area.

[Aric Dunn]

Warm core thermal profile so far also looks good for a TC.

Wonder why recon has not turn south yet.. wind direction from plane point to center being sse of them

[beoumont]

Time to name this

Woody.

[tropicwatch]

From looking at where the HH is currently, looks like the center will be south and west of 7am update position.

[cjrciadt]

50kt FL winds from the NOAA flight, far from center.I might get TS winds in CFL tomorrow lol.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon missed the center but confirmed its south and east of the updated. Forecast position.

Considering where the deep convection is i bet we see an even more east track.

[kevin]

Looks like recon is turning East now and is going to pass closer to the center of the storm soon.

[tropicwatch]

Recon missed the center but confirmed its south and east of the updated. Forecast position.

Considering where the deep convection is i bet we see an even more east track.

They appear to be heading for it now.

[NDG]

[stormlover2013]

some good rains for the southeast!!!!!