ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Not expecting much from this is Destin as it looks like I will be well west of the center.

[NDG]

Latest discussion from the SPC, good one to read.

...FL Gulf Coast...
An area of low pressure and scattered thunderstorms now located over
the central Gulf -- Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 -- is forecast by
NHC to develop into a subtropical or tropical cyclone today, while
moving northeastward toward the coastal FL Panhandle. The system
will continue to be strongly influenced by southwesterly flow and
deep shear related to the TX Coast shortwave trough. As such, its
convective distribution is highly asymmetric, with the great
majority of thunderstorms progged to remain over its eastern
semicircle, as that sector of the cyclone approaches the FL Gulf
Coast late tonight. In this regard, as well as its forecast track
and presence of a frontal zone in its eastern sector, this system
loosely resembles Earl of 1998, but with a weaker outer wind field.
As such, the tornado threat still appears lower and more conditional
than Earl, which produced several pre-landfall tornadoes near the
boundary in west-central FL.

Low-level mass response to the approaching cyclone will serve three
purposes influencing severe potential:
1. Northward shift of the baroclinic zone as a warm front.
2. Through warm advection and isentropic lift, support a large
shield of precip and embedded thunderstorms already evident to its
northeast. This precip is expected to shift northeastward in step
with and ahead of the cyclone's translation. In turn, it will limit
inland destabilization and penetration of the frontal zone,
especially from the FL coastal bend westward.
3. Maintain backed near-surface winds across much of FL, which will
enlarge hodographs, but also, maintain relatively stable boundary-
layer trajectories through rain-cooled air in northern FL and a
large part of the Panhandle.

Given that scenario, the outlook is kept close to the coastline from
northwestern FL northwestward, where weak MLCAPE may develop late in
the period in support of the potential for a few supercells or
bowing segments to move ashore. A larger area of favorable buoyancy
is expected near and south of the front over west-central/southwest
FL. Generally weaker low-level shear is expected than farther
northwest, owing to greater distance from both the strongest winds
of the cyclone and the ambient-shear influences of the shortwave
trough. However, hodographs may be enlarged in a corridor
corresponding to the frontal zone, in support of marginal tornado
potential for any supercells that can form and interact with the
boundary. Tornado probabilities, in particular, may need to be
raised later in the period for some part of this corridor if
convective and mesoscale environmental trends better focus supercell
potential.

Refer to NHC advisories for the latest tropical or subtropical
watches, warnings, and track/intensity forecasts for this system.

..Edwards/Leitman.. 10/18/2019

[Aric Dunn]

The bouy right north of the deepest convection like 10 miles has a east east recon showing west winds extending a ways into that convection. Center is clearly reformation even more east under that deepest convection

If that happe s it would have to mive nnw to reach next forecast point lol.

[northjaxpro]

That is impressive GCANE. 6500 CAPE is what the cyclone has had even going back to Thursday night. I explains to a good degree why Nestor is organizing steadily!

Also, I am not shocked that Recon is finding center a bit south of where the models initially had it. This will have an impact on the track.

[kevin]

Based on IR the current center appears to be at 25.5 degrees N and 89.2 degrees W. If recon continues to fly as it's doing now it'll probably pass 89.2 W around 25.1/25.2 degrees N, a bit South of the center, but still close enough to pick up some of the stronger winds. Also, the second recon is now dropping into the storm at 25 degrees N and 87 degrees W.

[gatorcane]

Huge blowup going on and the blowup is heading ENE, west coast of Florida may see more from this than folks are thinking. Wonder if storm warnings will need to be extended south through the Tampa area.

[NDG]

That buoy Aric mentioned now reporting a pressure of 1002mb with ENE winds gusting to 33 knots, meaning that the the CoC is to the south of it.

[tropicwatch]

They are still in the hunt for the center.

[Aric Dunn]

Other recon plane finding some hurricane force winds just above the surface.

[NDG]

Noaa recond reported 65 knot flight level winds with the deep convection to the east of the CoC.


131130 2513N 08706W 6924 03218 0085 +074 +069 183061 065 027 014 00

[GCANE]

CDO suggestive of a rapidly intensifying system

[NDG]

They are still in the hunt for the center.

Elongated but should be enough for an upgrade with the much stronger winds now found.

[kevin]

65 knots flight level winds and that was not even that close to the center. I wouldn't be surprised if there are already minimal hurricane winds at surface level somewhere in this system.

[GCANE]

Kermit reporting a number of in the clear TS SMFR readings.

[stormhunter7]

Clearly the surface center looks to be enlongated... Well away from deep convection. Mid level to east of center.

[gatorcane]

CDO suggestive of a rapidly intensifying system

https://i.imgur.com/IdWEbLP.png

If that is indeed a CDO, it could be organizing quickly

[sunnyday]

Nothing for So Fl, right?

[NDG]

Approximate CoC.
25.5N 89.85W

132530 2529N 08951W 9782 00206 0014 +251 +232 312006 008 010 000 00

[HurricaneEnzo]

65 knots flight level winds and that was not even that close to the center. I wouldn't be surprised if there are already minimal hurricane winds at surface level somewhere in this system.

Not necessairly this is one of those large sloppy GOM systems where the strongest winds could actually be far from the COC. We will see what recon comes up with.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah it is well south of the next forecast point from all the models. no way it makes it to panama city area unless there is a reformation way north... but that was supposed to have already happened per the models.


NE track from current center is big bend cedar key. area