ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#341 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:36 am

This is looking better for the Panhandle from PCB westward. Thank God!
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#342 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:37 am

Doesnt look like much in the way of those flight level winds are making it down to the surface at this time.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#343 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:37 am

models all showed a north reformation ... the reformations keep happening eastward..

the UKMET pretty much nailed this on the head. though it appears even further east than current UKMET. similar to the 12z yesterday UKMET>
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#344 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:38 am

Dean4Storms wrote:This is looking better for the Panhandle from PCB westward. Thank God!


The beach went relatively unscathed from Michael. We need PC and Mexico Beach to look better.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#345 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:39 am

Dean4Storms wrote:This is looking better for the Panhandle from PCB westward. Thank God!

Yeah were all clear on this side of the panhandle.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#346 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:40 am

Aric Dunn wrote:models all showed a north reformation ... the reformations keep happening eastward..

the UKMET pretty much nailed this on the head. though it appears even further east than current UKMET. similar to the 12z yesterday UKMET>


I hope you are right but I won't be satisfied until they find a more distinct center. I know that might not happen but a eastward shift in the NHC forecast cone would suffice. 8-)
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#347 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:42 am

Definitely a lot of eddy out there per recon lol.

the center south of the bouy looks more stable at the moment.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#348 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:45 am

X is where the recon found the lowest pressure but there is still a broad gyre all together as noticed on vis satellite loop with small vorticities rotating around it. Winds are strong enough for an upgrade.

Image
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#349 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:46 am

kevin wrote:Based on IR the current center appears to be at 25.5 degrees N and 89.2 degrees W. If recon continues to fly as it's doing now it'll probably pass 89.2 W around 25.1/25.2 degrees N, a bit South of the center, but still close enough to pick up some of the stronger winds. Also, the second recon is now dropping into the storm at 25 degrees N and 87 degrees W.


That's about right where the obs put it. Winds look to be in the 35-40 kt range now. Saw one earlier observation to 35 kts south of the center. Those strong recon winds at FL represent the much stronger winds aloft associated with the jet stream that is blowing across the center. This is not a strong TS. It's not even clear if it is more than a sharp trof so far.

Image
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#350 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:47 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Definitely a lot of eddy out there per recon lol.

the center south of the bouy looks more stable at the moment.


But notice how the recon went up in altitude just now when reporting those west winds north of the buoy.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#351 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:49 am

Aric Dunn wrote:models all showed a north reformation ... the reformations keep happening eastward..

the UKMET pretty much nailed this on the head. though it appears even further east than current UKMET. similar to the 12z yesterday UKMET>



UKMET indeed has performed well with the modeling of this storm all week.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#352 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:49 am

NOAA plane finding more near hurricane-force( after reduction about 70mph) winds as it approaches the center just above the surface.

NHC likely to increase winds to 60mph. maybe 65mph with the SFMR blend

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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#353 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:52 am

I am not surprised in the least that Recon is finding a much stronger cyclone currently!
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#354 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:52 am

wxman57 wrote:
kevin wrote:Based on IR the current center appears to be at 25.5 degrees N and 89.2 degrees W. If recon continues to fly as it's doing now it'll probably pass 89.2 W around 25.1/25.2 degrees N, a bit South of the center, but still close enough to pick up some of the stronger winds. Also, the second recon is now dropping into the storm at 25 degrees N and 87 degrees W.


That's about right where the obs put it. Winds look to be in the 35-40 kt range now. Saw one earlier observation to 35 kts south of the center. Those strong recon winds at FL represent the much stronger winds aloft associated with the jet stream that is blowing across the center. This is not a strong TS. It's not even clear if it is more than a sharp trof so far.

http://wxman57.com/images/96Lc.JPG


I didn't know that the jet stream is near 10k feet ;)
Noaa recon is finding much stronger surface winds than your estimate.

133500 2500N 08835W 6967 03159 0041 +102 +089 204045 046 040 004 00
133530 2500N 08837W 6963 03161 0037 +102 +098 204046 048 040 006 00
133600 2500N 08839W 6954 03163 0011 +119 +081 204050 053 041 006 00
133630 2500N 08841W 6963 03160 0030 +107 +092 203050 051 041 002 00
133700 2500N 08843W 6965 03155 0022 +112 +085 210054 057 041 000 00
133730 2500N 08845W 6963 03156 0016 +114 +093 215053 055 041 001 00
133800 2500N 08847W 6958 03159 0022 +107 +099 208054 058 041 003 00
133830 2500N 08849W 6969 03145 0016 +109 +105 216059 063 042 002 00
133900 2500N 08851W 6949 03168 0011 +111 +097 222059 060 042 002 00
133930 2500N 08853W 6958 03154 0008 +115 +077 230061 063 042 001 00
134000 2500N 08855W 6954 03158 9997 +122 +063 231061 063 043 001 00
134030 2500N 08856W 6970 03135 9998 +117 +095 223060 061 045 001 00
134100 2500N 08858W 6939 03167 9994 +116 +109 221059 061 045 003 00
134130 2500N 08900W 6951 03158 9985 +125 +102 219060 061 044 004 00
134200 2500N 08902W 6950 03158 9992 +119 +108 216060 062 048 006 00
134230 2459N 08904W 6947 03161 9995 +116 +110 221056 057 049 005 00
134300 2500N 08906W 6969 03136 9991 +120 +109 229060 065 047 005 00
134330 2500N 08908W 6956 03149 9995 +116 +110 227064 067 045 006 00
134400 2459N 08910W 6956 03154 0012 +105 //// 221064 072 041 017 01
134430 2459N 08912W 6974 03133 9993 +125 +103 229044 045 046 002 00
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#355 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:57 am

NDG wrote:I didn't know that the jet stream is near 10k feet ;)


Low-level jet associated with the upper trof. You'd expect strong SW winds aloft, maybe not far above the surface associated with digging trof across the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#356 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:57 am

AF finding west winds where there should not be any. Oh boy reminds me of a storm earlier this year, brain fart on which one. :oops:
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#357 Postby GCANE » Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:58 am

Up to 43 knots in-the-clear SFMR
Tons of TS surface wind measurements.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#358 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:00 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:AF finding west winds where there should not be any. Oh boy reminds me of a storm earlier this year, brain fart on which one. :oops:


no the AF recon plane is leaving they have ascended past 20k feet.


which explains the appearance of the 2nd cetner farther north..

that is not there. only center is south of that bouy currently.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#359 Postby tropicwatch » Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:01 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:AF finding west winds where there should not be any. Oh boy reminds me of a storm earlier this year, brain fart on which one. :oops:


no the AF recon plane is leaving they have ascended past 20k feet.


oops, forgot to check FL but the first west wind they were still under 5k feet.
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Re: ATL: SIXTEEN - Potential Tropical Cyclone

#360 Postby NDG » Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:03 am

Too bad the AF recon headed back to base, I guess because of flight problems.
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