ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

That warm-core hole on IR has been hanging in there a good 2.5 hrs

[northjaxpro]

So strange to be sitting here at 61 degrees, and watching what is taking place in the gulf. Postel on the weather channel calling this a gulfeaster...comparing it to a noreaster of course. Still no name on newest advisory...but a 60 mph potential tropical cyclone.

It got down to 53 degrees this morning here at my home station Man it felt great. It is amazing how it feels here today and how drastically different it is going to be here in the next 12-18 hours from now with soon to be Nestor's approach.

[Florida1118]

Perhaps I'm missing something, but I didn't see recon report anything but south to southwest winds. No LLC indicated. I know the buoys to the north all have east winds, but there's a cold front across the northern Gulf and winds are out of the east there. Pressure just dropped 2mb at the buoy north of the estimated center. Wind only 20 kts.

The workstation has forsaken you once again

[NDG]

TS warnings extended South to Yankee town, just south of Cedar Key, the track has been shifted a little more east.

[TallyTracker]

The increasing winds is definitely increasing my chances of a power outage here in Tallahassee. Gonna be a messy night tonight...

[SunnyThoughts]

Is this pretty much unprecedented in the GOM, to have a 60mph system that has no name? Is there a threshold it could reach strength wise where they would have no choice but to give it a name, or if environment was conducive...could it be a 100 mph system still with no name?

[NDG]

Is this pretty much unprecedented in the GOM, to have a 60mph system that has no name? Is there a threshold it could reach strength wise where they would have no choice but to give it a name, or if environment was conducive...could it be a 100 mph system still with no name?

I totally agree, we have seen storms with worst CoC than this with a name.

[caneman]

Is this pretty much unprecedented in the GOM, to have a 60mph system that has no name? Is there a threshold it could reach strength wise where they would have no choice but to give it a name, or if environment was conducive...could it be a 100 mph system still with no name?

I totally agree, we have seen storms with worst CoC than this with a name.

So why arent they naming it?

[SconnieCane]

Is this pretty much unprecedented in the GOM, to have a 60mph system that has no name? Is there a threshold it could reach strength wise where they would have no choice but to give it a name, or if environment was conducive...could it be a 100 mph system still with no name?

I totally agree, we have seen storms with worst CoC than this with a name.

So why arent they naming it?

Because by their determination it does not presently meet all the criteria of a tropical or subtropical cyclone. Wind speed has nothing to do with it.

[NDG]

[SunnyThoughts]

Is this pretty much unprecedented in the GOM, to have a 60mph system that has no name? Is there a threshold it could reach strength wise where they would have no choice but to give it a name, or if environment was conducive...could it be a 100 mph system still with no name?

I totally agree, we have seen storms with worst CoC than this with a name.

So why arent they naming it?

From what I understand, because it isn't fully tropical.

[NDG]

Is this pretty much unprecedented in the GOM, to have a 60mph system that has no name? Is there a threshold it could reach strength wise where they would have no choice but to give it a name, or if environment was conducive...could it be a 100 mph system still with no name?

I totally agree, we have seen storms with worst CoC than this with a name.

So why arent they naming it?

Because its CoC is still elongated, no well defined CoC just yet.

[tropicwatch]

Kermit heading towards center. It would be nice to finally get a vortex message.

[Aric Dunn]

well recon descended back down to 10k feet for this pass. have to do decent reduction.

[NDG]

I totally agree, we have seen storms with worst CoC than this with a name.

So why arent they naming it?

From what I understand, because it isn't fully tropical.

It is a tropical system, the UL trough is still far enough to the NW of it for it to currently have tropical characteristics, it has not been upgraded yet like I said because of this:

The NOAA aircraft also measured a
pressure of around 1001 mb. While the cyclone has deepened, the
circulation is still quite elongated and not well defined, so the
system is maintained as a Potential Tropical Cyclone for now.

[Frank2]

Satellite and computer graphics can show this and that, but if the aircraft cannot find a defined circulation that's what counts. There have been times when the NHC had a system near hurricane strength but when the aircraft investigated the system it was far less than what the satellite measured winds indicated.

The system is stil part of a trough - a low pressure system on a trough. It might make a transition but it might not considering it's faster forward speed.

[blp]

Is this pretty much unprecedented in the GOM, to have a 60mph system that has no name? Is there a threshold it could reach strength wise where they would have no choice but to give it a name, or if environment was conducive...could it be a 100 mph system still with no name?

I don't why either. I can only guess they are following the models that have a center reformation further north and thus they think this COC will be short lived. They will need to adjust soon if this continues....

[boca]

What weather should we expect in South Florida?

[Frank2]

From the Miami discussion:

Current Storm Prediction Center Day 1 and 2 Outlooks
support the notion that the greatest threat of
severe storms remains to the north, closer to the forecast track of
the center of PTC Sixteen. The threat to southern Florida remains
non-zero and heavily reliant on convection being able to access the
high shear environment.

Considering the fast forward speed of 16 the entire event (my guess) will end by tomorrow afternoon.

[wxman57]

Any circulation appears to be broad and located west of the convection. That would make it hard for the system to strengthen. Lots of shear to contend with. No convergence toward any center. Those northerly winds west of the low are behind the cold front, which is very near the low. This is more of a frontal low than a TC.