Texas Fall 2019

[South Texas Storms]

Long-range forecasting is hard. I joined the long-range team at work last year during non-hurricane season and it's definitely a challenge. For this year, it looks like our winter pattern might be setting up now. We're seeing a trend of a ridge in the western U.S. with troughiness developing across the Plains. If this continues we will likely see a colder than normal winter.

[hamburgerman7070]

Long-range forecasting is hard. I joined the long-range team at work last year during non-hurricane season and it's definitely a challenge. For this year, it looks like our winter pattern might be setting up now. We're seeing a trend of a ridge in the western U.S. with troughiness developing across the Plains. If this continues we will likely see a colder than normal winter.

Why do you think that? It would be nice, however there are so many factors involved. Like you have probably seen over the years, we can have a great pattern now in the fall only to see it change during winter.

[South Texas Storms]

Long-range forecasting is hard. I joined the long-range team at work last year during non-hurricane season and it's definitely a challenge. For this year, it looks like our winter pattern might be setting up now. We're seeing a trend of a ridge in the western U.S. with troughiness developing across the Plains. If this continues we will likely see a colder than normal winter.

Why do you think that? It would be nice, however there are so many factors involved. Like you have probably seen over the years, we can have a great pattern now in the fall only to see it change during winter.

That's true, but a lot of times the general overall pattern shows hints in the fall. It's still a low confidence forecast for this winter since it looks like we will have ENSO Neutral conditions. That means the main factors will be the teleconnection indices like the AO, NAO, PNA. The warm blob in the NE Pacific is good news for cold weather lovers east of the Rockies.

[Brent]

the end of the NAM actually has a solid line of storms for DFW early Monday morning

the bad news is its the end of the NAM

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose had a blog regarding the CPC's Winter Outlook today. With no clear signal for La Nina or El Nino, hard to predict, but doesn't look great for parts of Texas as far as temperatures or precipitation (warmer and drier than average).



Bob's Blog on Central Texas Weather

NOAA Forecasting a Warmer and Drier than Normal Winter Across Central Texas.

Thursday, October 17, 2019 3:51 PM
​

The upcoming winter is shaping up to fairly mild across most of the country. That's according to the official winter weather outlook issued Thursday by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

Forecasters look for clues in the oceans and the atmosphere in trying to figure out the upcoming winter's climate pattern. This fall, one of the biggest clues or climate drivers, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is in a neutral phase. In other words, there is no El Niño or La Niña in place. According to CPC forecasters, in the absence of El Niño or La Niña, long-term trends become a key predictor for the outlook, while other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), will likely play a larger role in determining winter weather. For example, the AO influences the number of arctic air masses that intrude into the U.S., but its predictability is unfortunately limited to a couple weeks.

"Without either El Nino or La Nina conditions, short-term climate patterns like the Arctic Oscillation will drive winter weather and could result in large swings in temperature and precipitation," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Despite these large swings, temperatures overall are still expected to average warmer than normal.

NOAA's winter outlook shows the greatest likelihood for warmer-than-normal conditions are in Alaska and Hawaii, with more modest probabilities for above-average temperatures spanning large parts of the remaining lower 48, from the West across the South and up the eastern seaboard.

The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.

No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures this winter.

In regards to precipitation, wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in Alaska and Hawaii this winter, along with portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Drier-than-average conditions are most likely for Louisiana, parts of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma as well areas of northern and central California. Across Central Texas, the outlook calls for slightly increased odds precipitation will average drier than normal.

The remainder of the U.S. falls into the category of equal chances for below-, near-, or above-average precipitation.

In regards to drought, abnormally dry conditions are currently present across much of the Southern U.S., with areas of the most severe drought in the Four Corners region of the Southwest, central Texas and parts of the Southeast.

Drought is expected to improve in portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Alaska and Hawaii. However winter rainfall is not forecast to be sufficient to cause significant drought improvement across Central and South Texas. Drought conditions are forecast to persist across Central Texas and the southwestern U.S. Drought development is expected to occur in parts of central California.

https://www.lcra.org/PublishingImages/Lists/WeatherBlog/BobsView/WinterT.png
https://www.lcra.org/PublishingImages/Lists/WeatherBlog/BobsView/WinterP.png
https://www.lcra.org/PublishingImages/Lists/WeatherBlog/BobsView/Untitled.png

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

Those forecasts are trash. Don’t put stock in that load of crap.

Yeah, frankly, my hope is that the models with this are trash/crap.

I wonder if anyone knows the percentage of CPC outlooks over the years that have actually come to fruition (wet and cold ends up being mild and dry, etc.)?
Just curious if any pro mets/enthusiasts on here have that kind of data? That would be interesting to research, but I don't have time to do that.lol

[weatherdude1108]

EWX mentioned an eastern Pacific tap. Just trying to get my hopes up.

In any case dry or wet, it was a beautiful Chamber of Commerce day yesterday here in central Texas with lows in 50s and highs in the sunny 70s. Sunny today around 82, in the 50s now. Feels like a normal Summertime day in the mountains outside on the deck with a cup of coffee (or whatever beverage) viewing the mountain meadows.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 180853
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
353 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
NE winds over the Coastal Prairies will limit warming slightly today
as the inversion left behind the compact departing upper low will not
fully mix out. Out west, areas along the Rio Grande should see highs
a few degrees warmer with better mixing from the westerlies above the
boundary layer. Tonight a fast moving shortwave trough moves into the
Red River valley and brings the return of southerly and boundary
layer winds across all areas. The surface pressure gradient is
expected to remain weak while higher surface dewpoints near the coast
surge northward into the Coastal Prairies. This could lead to some
low level saturation with patchy advection fog after midnight. A weak
Pacific style front arrives by the afternoon, and the mixing levels
and downsloping effects will translate to a more rapid warmup to near
attainable record highs for some locations.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The Pacific front stalls late Saturday night over the Coastal
Prairies, and there should be a fair amount of moisture in the low
levels to generate some light radar echoes, whether it be light
sprinkles or drizzle. Progressive zonal flow aloft will enhance
return flow Sunday and the moisture surge will deepen quickly in the
low levels as a vigorous upper low digs into the Central and Northern
Plains by 00Z Monday. Low coverage and low confidence PoPs of mainly
showers are expected to be possible along and east of I-35 Sunday
afternoon, and high temps should again reach several degrees above
normals.

While the rapidly forming upper low well to the north of TX, the jet
stream wrapping south of it cuts into NW TX to OK, and develops a
rapidly sharpening cold front that is set to arrive late Sunday night
into Monday morning. The sharpening of the front occurs over NW TX
and a broken line of thunderstorms is expected to arrive into the
the Hill Country by late Sunday evening and into the SE corner of the
forecast area after daybreak Monday. Deterministic model depictions
are mostly in agreement, but the Nam appears to be coming in much
drier and a bit slower with the front. For this reason, will continue
to undercut likely PoPs to chance for all but the Coastal Prairies.
Late night timing usually limits the potential for severe weather,
but timing of activity in our northernmost counties late in the
evening could lead to a few strong storms.

Run to run trends on frontal strength look to be consistent over the
past several runs, with the front looking somewhat typical for mid
October. Seasonally mild and mostly clear weather is expected to last
into Wednesday night with clouds and humidity expected to return
Thursday morning. The warm and humid day Thursday should be short-
lived with another front arriving early Thursday evening. Run-to-run
tendencies might suggest this front may delay until later in the
night, but already the model agreement is above average on showing
another round of scattered convection with the front.

In the case of both fronts, there is a weak connection of mid-level
winds with an unstable Eastern Pacific Ocean. A change in this
tropical connection or a more mature development of a tropical
disturbance in this region could alter rain potential.

[Haris]

Cold is the first step but we need precip to deliver the Goods.

Well at this point, I’m over snow. We need rain. Still missing an actual widespread event

[Portastorm]

Next weekend (Oct 25-27) is looking cold and wet for much of the state. I'm seeing it in both the operational and ensemble runs for the GFS and Euro. Hope it holds true!

[Ralph's Weather]

For next weekend, the Euro and GFS ensembles are fairly progressive with the trough but the Canadian ensemble hangs the trough back over the Southwestern US for a while with some op runs showing a classic bowling ball low coming out of the SW. It seems like it has been a while since we have had a classic bowling ball so that would be amazing with days of cold and wet weather. This early in the season wintery mischief is unlikely but it is not completely unheard of in late Oct. I am really liking what I am seeing for late fall and winter overall. Maybe not the high end potential of last winter but this could be a sneaky good winter with an open tap out of the east Pacific and NE Pacific upper ridge. Main thing to watch for me is the strength of SE US ridging we need some ridging there to focus things on TX but too much and we just get Panhandle hooks.

[aggiecutter]

Next weekend (Oct 25-27) is looking cold and wet for much of the state. I'm seeing it in both the operational and ensemble runs for the GFS and Euro. Hope it holds true!

Issuing a counterfeit weather report is punishable by U.S. Code § 2074: False weather reports.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2074

[Ntxw]

The reversal in October has been quite a contrast to what was a few weeks ago. DFW airport started way, way above normal the first week that has since come down dramatically. Still above normal, with a day or two above to go but the colder days are starting to outnumber the warmer days.

The story of this mid Fall season is the dramatic, sharp cold pools diving down the middle of the country. Not only that, but consistently accompanied by deep split flow with near record low MSLP storms. What does that mean? If forward projections using the same formulaic idea then we can expect bigger, deeper, more powerful storms this winter.

The Indian Ocean/Indonesia is the anomalous feature at the moment, that my friends spells modoki despite neutral. Favoring cold down the middle of the continent consistently.

Some more fronts to come in a series the rest of this month. Likely a bigger one (freezes anyone?) near Halloween or the week of. Ensembles support major blocking in both the Pacific and Greenland.

[rwfromkansas]

Where can one find a good SST map showing the warm pool off Alaska? I am curious how strong that is. I heard it was a bit further west than last year which hopefully will allow storms to dig slightly west of us this year instead of what they do some years, which is only start to dig over us or east of us.

[South Texas Storms]

Where can one find a good SST map showing the warm pool off Alaska? I am curious how strong that is. I heard it was a bit further west than last year which hopefully will allow storms to dig slightly west of us this year instead of what they do some years, which is only start to dig over us or east of us.

Here you go:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

[Ralph's Weather]

Where can one find a good SST map showing the warm pool off Alaska? I am curious how strong that is. I heard it was a bit further west than last year which hopefully will allow storms to dig slightly west of us this year instead of what they do some years, which is only start to dig over us or east of us.

The pool is def further west than in recent years which should allow for troughs to dig SW under the West Coast ridge.

[weatherdude1108]

A pattern of fronts with accompanying thunderstorms every three or four days with sunny, cool weather in between is what would be ideal.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 182004
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
304 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Surface ridging sliding east of the region today has allowed for
south to southeast winds to resume. An upper trough extending from
Wyoming to northern Mexico this afternoon will quickly translate
east across Texas tonight, sending a weak cold front and attendant
pre-frontal trough into the region. Higher resolution guidance
members, including the SPC HREF ensembles, RAP, and NAM, generate a
few light showers as the base of the upper trough reaches the Hill
Country after midnight tonight. Overall column moisture appears
fairly marginal (precipitable water values less than 1.5 inches), but
mid-level saturation may allow for a few sprinkles to reach the
ground before dawn. A weakening surface pressure gradient ahead of
the frontal system`s arrival and recent rainfall will allow for
patchy fog to develop across much of the eastern two-thirds of the
region by sunrise, but this fog is not expected to last much longer
than mid-morning Saturday. Otherwise, warmer overnight lows are
expected tonight with lows in the low to mid 60s.

The upper trough`s quick eastward progression and rapidly modifying
post-frontal airmass (indicated by decreasing surface pressure
rises) mean this frontal boundary will likely stall or become
diffuse somewhere across the southern half of the region on Saturday.
The front looks to have almost no effect on temperatures, and in
fact may help contribute to some additional warming tomorrow as light
northerly winds aid in some downslope warming. Afternoon highs
tomorrow in the mid 80s to mid 90s may very well tie or set new high
temperature records. Convective temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
may allow for a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm to develop
along the stalled frontal boundary in the Coastal Plains, with
coverage possibly enhanced by a signal for a sea breeze/stalled front
collision. Visible satellite imagery shows a weak sea breeze
developed this afternoon and, with stronger surface heating tomorrow
combined with nearshore water temperatures in the lower to mid 70s,
expect farther inland penetration of the sea breeze on Saturday.
Showers may persist in the vicinity of this lingering boundary
Saturday night with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
On Sunday, another trough crossing the Great Plains will result in
surface cyclogenesis and strengthening southerly flow. As the
surface cyclone ejects eastward with the parent trough during the
day, another cold front will surge south into the region Sunday night
and Monday morning with showers and storms developing along the
front. There still remains the potential for a few strong storms
edging into Central Texas along the front Sunday night with stronger
jet dynamics over North Texas. Dry and mild conditions are expected
mid- week behind Monday`s front. Another cold front looks to reach
the region again Thursday night or Friday morning with showers and
thunderstorms along it, sending another round of below normal
temperatures into the region on Friday.

[bubba hotep]

NWS is going 80% of T-storms for MBY, they were at 60% for the last system before finally cutting all the way back to 30%. The model trend has been for the models to start drying out in this range, will we see the Euro cut totals back at 12z and then the HiRes models at 18z/00z???? I hope not, time to break the trend!

[Ntxw]

It's becoming more evident now. An unusual cold air mass will dislodge down the central part of the country (warmth in the east) following the re-curvature of typhoon Neoguri which then bombs out over the Aleutians.

Think of this as an October version of Nuri.

#ColdHalloween

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1185570683071410176

[Ntxw]

The OP guidance are probably going to trend even colder as the period gets closer. I think we have a shot at rivaling some of the notorious Halloween chills of the early 1990s (1991, 1993).

[Ntxw]

And don't think it is happening at a coincidence, 2019 favored blocking regions cards have already been played.

[hamburgerman7070]

And don't think it is happening at a coincidence, 2019 favored blocking regions cards have already been played.

https://i.imgur.com/bpCfycE.png

Ntxw, you dont think the cold air is too far west? Maybe thats a good thing now, but imo, its too far west based on the sw troughing and other things.