ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Surface obs indicate that the center, weak as it is, is passing north of the mid Gulf buoy and is near 26.2N / 89.8W. Highly sheared, elongated low. Weaker than it was a few hours ago. This is not a strengthening TS. Had a 40kt ship report south of the center last hour.

[wxman57]

Wow, not the type of wx to be out on the deck of this cruise ship.

Tides and Currents Weather Stations Pressure Air Temp Water Temp Dewpoint Dewpoint Depression Visibility Wind Speed Wind Dir Waves Ship Positions

Fantasy
Operator: Carnival Cruise Lines
Last reported at 2019-Oct-18 15:00 UTC. Time now 2019-Oct-18 17:14 UTC.
Position N 24°42' W 088°54'.
Type: Ship. MMSI: 353486000.
Wind from 200 at 45 knots
Barometer 999.6 mb

That's the ship on the image below SSE of the center.

[Aric Dunn]

That vort, unfortunately, is rotating wsw or sw currently so it is rotating around a larger circ to the south still.

[NDG]

Poor guy doesn't know that it is stronger than a tropical depression.

 https://twitter.com/bamajohne/status/1185223408558063616

[northjaxpro]

Wow, not the type of wx to be out on the deck of this cruise ship.

Tides and Currents Weather Stations Pressure Air Temp Water Temp Dewpoint Dewpoint Depression Visibility Wind Speed Wind Dir Waves Ship Positions

Fantasy
Operator: Carnival Cruise Lines
Last reported at 2019-Oct-18 15:00 UTC. Time now 2019-Oct-18 17:14 UTC.
Position N 24°42' W 088°54'.
Type: Ship. MMSI: 353486000.
Wind from 200 at 45 knots
Barometer 999.6 mb

That's the ship on the image below SSE of the center.

http://wxman57.com/images/16e.JPG

Thanks 57 for posting this satellite image. Wow, you certainly don't see an actual ship image on satellite very often. A very unique and cool image!!

[NDG]

Hmm, three Carnival cruise ships were caught on the path of the storm, somebody gave them the wrong forecast, lol.

[StruThiO]

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NESTOR... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

[Aric Dunn]

so NHC went with that vort rotating around. lets see what happens to it..

[northjaxpro]

FINALLY NHC upgrades to Nestor!!

[Aric Dunn]

FINALLY NHC upgrades to Nestor!!

I guess after 30 vorts.. you just pick one and hope for the best ? lol

[hurricaneCW]

FINALLY NHC upgrades to Nestor!!

The low is weak but it's there plus given the impacts I'm sure the NHC wants to convey the seriousness of this system.

[EquusStorm]

No doubt an "ehh, close enough" situation with a baroclinically driven blob. The sustained deep convection probably helps.

[blp]

so NHC went with that vort rotating around. lets see what happens to it..

I am not surprised. That is the one I think the models are latching onto rotating around then heading NE. I just don't think the convection will be pulled into that center. That convection is coming inland further East.

If I was in Tampa I would be keeping an eye on that eastern side that is were all the action is going to be when it gets close to landfall.

[northjaxpro]

FINALLY NHC upgrades to Nestor!!

The low is weak but it's there plus given the impacts I'm sure the NHC wants to convey the seriousness of this system.

NHC had to go ahead and upgrade this thing as it is closing in fast to approach to the coast and for the sake of serious need for public to react to the potential of this becoming a more serious situation.

[NDG]

Plenty of TS force winds close to the CoC.

173530 2540N 08841W 9840 00156 0016 +255 +229 211043 044 040 002 00
173600 2541N 08841W 9842 00153 0015 +258 +229 210041 045 040 001 00
173630 2543N 08841W 9843 00151 0014 +260 +228 208041 043 039 001 00
173700 2545N 08841W 9847 00148 0013 +260 +229 206040 045 040 000 00
173730 2547N 08841W 9838 00155 0012 +258 +229 204041 044 039 001 00
173800 2549N 08841W 9843 00150 0012 +259 +229 203041 041 039 001 00
173830 2551N 08841W 9840 00151 0011 +259 +229 202042 045 040 001 00
173900 2553N 08841W 9842 00151 0011 +259 +230 200041 044 039 001 00
173930 2554N 08841W 9840 00153 0012 +258 +230 201037 040 038 001 03

[Highteeld]

almost looks like a plains dryline severe event/mcs more than a tropical storm

[blp]

The models are not handling the structure of this well. They have the ball of convection being more closely aligned with the current center moving NE. Current NHC center is well displaced to the West and convection is moving rapidly to the ENE. No way this has time to consolidate. They are acting like two separate entities.

[NDG]

BTW, models are still persistent that will strengthen some more tonight prior to making landfall, they all continue to shift east with a big shift east by the Euro, relatively speaking compared to yesterday's 12z run.

[Nimbus]

45 knots over a fairly wide area along the coast wherever it makes landfall is going to keep the power companies busy so glad for the upgrade. Pretty intense south eastern quadrant with all the lightning strikes so there may be tornadoes as far south as the Tampa bay area.

[Jr0d]

Poor guy doesn't know that it is stronger than a tropical depression.

https://twitter.com/bamajohne/status/1185223408558063616

Myself, Aric and many others on this forum would be enjoying that cruise!