ATL: NESTOR - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rigbyrigz]

I'm hoping the next flight will give us a better idea of the size of the wind field.

so, until the plane reports what the (surface?) winds are around the center, where NO CONVECTION SHOWS on satellite or radar, we do NOT know what winds are there to affect anyone who gets a hit from that? Really?

[wxman57]

Here in Big Bend it appears that Convection Blob will pass south and east of us, while the center may be onto us directly. My urgent question please: are these 60-65 mph winds and gusts occurring at the surface ( in my face) actually swirling around the convectionless center so that there will be a high wind impact we will FEEL, (perhaps without much rain?)

There isn't much at all anywhere near the center. As in my post above, maybe 20-25 kts north of the center. You'd be hard pressed to find any 60 mph winds in this system.

[rigbyrigz]

Thank you HDGator and WXMAN! Have had impacts by many storms, but usually saw (what) "convection (was) coming" LOL.

[HDGator]

Lots of rotating cells with the first line of storms that will be moving across the Peninsula this evening.

https://i.imgur.com/RDUyUX2.gif

NWS Tampa Bay is starting to pump out some Special Marine Warnings for Waterspouts in these cells just off shore.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah need some recon on that SE side for sure.

[NDG]

The only convergence I see is along the frontal boundary east of the low center.

It is to the south of the frontal boundary and closer to the CoC, according to this graphic.

[psyclone]

I'm hoping the next flight will give us a better idea of the size of the wind field.

so, until the plane reports what the (surface?) winds are around the center, where NO CONVECTION SHOWS on satellite or radar, we do NOT know what winds are there to affect anyone who gets a hit from that? Really?

Make preps for a Netflix and chill evening. Your area is already under a TS warning. it will likely underwhelm when all is said and done...with the caveat to monitor as things can change.

[GeneratorPower]

Forgive my lack of attention to this thread and to Nestor, but I just looked at the satellite and it sure looks like we have a blob headed right for FL peninsula. Did I get that wrong?

[psyclone]

Forgive my lack of attention to this thread and to Nestor, but I just looked at the satellite and it sure looks like we have a blob headed right for FL peninsula. Did I get that wrong?

There's a decent chance the worst weather associated with Nestor happens outside of the ts warning area...unless the convective configuration changes.

[boca]

I know all the models point to the big bend area but the blob is heading towards South Florida and we might get rain down here so we might have an upgrade from high cirrus warning to rain watch.

[ava_ati]

Lots of rotating cells with the first line of storms that will be moving across the Peninsula this evening.

https://i.imgur.com/RDUyUX2.gif

NWS Tampa Bay is starting to pump out some Special Marine Warnings for Waterspouts in these cells just off shore.

Yeah I would be far more concerned about those supercells just offshore of Tampa than I would be of the naked swirl headed towards Port St. Joe

[Ivanhater]

Nasty cold and wet in Pensacola. All events cancelled tonight

[SFLcane]

Not much will be felt at landfall with this thing all the weather is to the south and east of whatever stretched out circulation there is. Sure looks sub-tropical to me

[SFLcane]

I know all the models point to the big bend area but the blob is heading towards South Florida and we might get rain down here so we might have an upgrade from high cirrus warning to rain watch.

Remember IR is cloud tops so you'll get cirrus canopy even in areas without thunderstorms. Watch out for that cirrus warning

[psyclone]

FWIW the core of the lightning with the heart of the "blob" is at about the latitude of Lee/Charlotte counties.

[caneman]

FWIW the core of the lightning with the heart of the "blob" is at about the latitude of Lee/Charlotte counties.

Thunder really popping just offshore Clearwater beach. Raining all day

[GeneratorPower]

FWIW the core of the lightning with the heart of the "blob" is at about the latitude of Lee/Charlotte counties.

I’m wondering if it continues heading generally east or if it suddenly shoots north. Interesting system.

[chaser1]

What? No local warnings here? We're well past high cirrus!
Cirro & Altostratus light showers officially occuring here in the Orlando area. Winds blowing out of the southeast at..... er, nevermind. It's dead calm. Anyway, food rations in hand (4 slim-jims). My yard is likely to get really wet tonight but it's okay. I've got nerves of steal.

[robbielyn]

FWIW the core of the lightning with the heart of the "blob" is at about the latitude of Lee/Charlotte counties.

Thunder really popping just offshore Clearwater beach. Raining all day

See i told you pinellas gets worse weather than hernando lol.just started raining very light at 3pm no wind. i saw projected radar for whole passage of storm through tomorrow on weather channel video off their website; pinellas gets much more rain

[Aric Dunn]

now that it is moving again... the center at least. it may start to try and build convection around the center.