WPAC: BUALOI - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

Best track up to 50 kt/999 mbar.

[Tailspin]

Potentialy may take off.


https://imgur.com/kwDwIkj

[aspen]

Potentialy may take off.

https://i.imgur.com/kwDwIkj.png
https://imgur.com/kwDwIkj
https://i.imgur.com/Lxt3jtr.png

https://i.imgur.com/yy2OOlE.png
https://i.imgur.com/0NQ7S29.png

The CHIPS runs may be slightly underestimated because they’re starting from an initial intensity of 20-40 kt, below the 45 kt intensity at 12z. Despite that, it seems like Bualoi has a decent chance of becoming a 130-140 kt Super Typhoon, but I doubt it will get to 170 kt like that outlier CHIPS run.

[euro6208]

[Tailspin]

18z ec

https://imgur.com/HHiiLUx

135 mph gusts. Gets stronger as move away from the islands on the run. As for now this area on the model
is of interest too me.

[Highteeld]

Almost a typhoon

22W BUALOI 191020 0000 11.6N 151.3E WPAC 60 995

[Tailspin]

Could already be one. lot's of typhoon's 64KT were documented in the days of recon that never had eyes. William M. Gray wrote a paper on it.

[aspen]

:uarrow: Could already be one. lot's of typhoon's 64KT were documented in the days of recon that never had eyes. William M. Gray wrote a paper on it.

I wouldn’t say it’s quite there yet. While convection is flaring up again, the overall structure is still rather ragged and messy. Diurnal max should help it get to or surpass 65 kt by the next best track update.

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 200045

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI)

B. 20/0000Z

C. 11.72N

D. 151.22E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .90
ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET YIELDS 3.0, PT YIELDS
4.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


VEERKAMP

[Tailspin]

:uarrow: Could already be one. lot's of typhoon's 64KT were documented in the days of recon that never had eyes. William M. Gray wrote a paper on it.

I wouldn’t say it’s quite there yet. While convection is flaring up again, the overall structure is still rather ragged and messy. Diurnal max should help it get to or surpass 65 kt by the next best track update.

https://imgur.com/fyo1pJN
Looks ok too me, a intensifying v small core system.
You could flip a coin either way atm. Seen recon find canes in other basin with systems that look, well you know. Don't need a visible eye too be a entry level typhoon.

[Tailspin]

Found a sampled pass.




https://imgur.com/buXE1XK

[mrbagyo]

[euro6208]

A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ALAMAGAN
AND PAGAN ISLANDS.

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM.

[Hayabusa]

Typhoon, JMA remains STS

22W BUALOI 191020 0600 12.2N 150.4E WPAC 65 988

[Tailspin]

258
WTPQ32 PGUM 200908
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Typhoon Bualoi (22W) Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP222019
800 PM ChST Sun Oct 20 2019

...BUALOI NOW A TYPHOON...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
None.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Typhoon Warning remains in effect for Tinian and Saipan. Damaging
winds of 39 mph or more are expected by Monday evening, and typhoon
force winds of 74 mph or more are expected Monday night.

A Typhoon Watch remains in effect for Rota. Damaging winds of 39 mph
or more are possible Monday evening, and typhoon force winds of
74 mph or greater are possible Monday night or Tuesday morning.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Guam. Damaging winds of
39 mph or higher are possible Monday night.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the islands of Pagan and
Alamagan in the Northern Mariana Islands. Damaging winds of 39 mph
or higher are possible on Tuesday.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...12.5N 150.0E

About 475 southeast of Pagan Island
About 450 miles southeast of Alamagan
About 340 miles east-southeast of Saipan
About 340 miles east-southeast of Tinian
About 340 miles east-southeast of Rota
About 360 miles east of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...75 mph
Present movement...NW...305 degrees at 13 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...the center of Typhoon Bualoi was located
near Latitude 12.5 degrees North and Longitude 150.0 degrees East...
moving northwest at 13 mph. Bualoi is expected to continue toward the
northwest with little change in forward speed through Tuesday. This
forecast track takes Bualoi 30 to 40 miles north of Saipan early
Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to typhoon force at 75 mph.
Intensification is expected to continue the next few days, and when it
passes Saipan it is forecast to be a Category 3 typhoon with maximum
sustained winds near 115 mph.

Tropical storm force winds extend out to 110 miles northwest of the
center, and up to 75 miles southwest of the center. Typhoon force
winds extend out to 15 miles from the center.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 1100 PM tonight, followed by the next scheduled advisory
at 200 AM Monday morning.

$$

Middlebrooke

[Tailspin]

Don't matter what JMA thinks atm.

[Hayabusa]

Still STS

[euro6208]

Upgraded into a typhoon. Peak increased to 115 knots!


WDPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 200500Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 29-
30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TY 22W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 THEN IT WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR BY TAU 72. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH AN 80NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36 AND 105NM AT
TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS AS IT TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS WITH AN INTENSITY
NEAR 105 KNOTS AT TAU 36 AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS AT TAU
72. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE 24-HOUR AND 36-
HOUR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS, WHICH TRIGGER WHEN CONDITIONS ARE
RIPE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS
INCREASES TO MODERATE LEVELS ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD
IMPROVE. NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED AND TRACK ORIENTATION, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN