WPAC: BUALOI - Post-Tropical

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1186508942123290624

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2019 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 17:55:48 N Lon : 144:30:00 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.4mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : +16.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 83nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.4 degrees

****************************************************

[TorSkk]

[doomhaMwx]

Date (mmddhhmm): 10220312
SATCON: MSLP = 945 hPa MSW = 124 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 117.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 125 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 190 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 4.1 knots Source: MW

[Hayabusa]

TY 1921 (Bualoi)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 22 October 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 22 October>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N18°10' (18.2°)
E144°25' (144.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 110 km (60 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 22 October>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N19°50' (19.8°)
E142°55' (142.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 920 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 23 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05' (22.1°)
E141°50' (141.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 24 October>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N27°10' (27.2°)
E141°40' (141.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 955 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
Radius of probability circle 140 km (75 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 25 October>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°30' (33.5°)
E145°20' (145.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Storm warning area E 440 km (240 NM)
W 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 26 October>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N39°55' (39.9°)
E149°00' (149.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 984 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Storm warning area E 700 km (375 NM)
W 480 km (260 NM)

[mrbagyo]

Should be at least 130 knots in the next update.

[Hayabusa]

120 they say

22W BUALOI 191022 0600 18.1N 144.4E WPAC 120 943

[euro6208]

Another victim in the post reconnaissance era.

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 220624

A. TROPICAL STORM 22W (BUALOI)

B. 21/0600Z

C. 18.14N

D. 144.39E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RICHARDSON

[TorSkk]

120 kt is ridiculous

[Tailspin]

Riley Doxsee
@HurricaneRiley5
Typhoon #Bualoi has rapidly intensified the last several hours after EWRC completion. The JTWC went with 120kts (140mph) at 06z. I think that’s too low and would’ve gone much higher (130+kts). This is a clear cut T7.0. If this structure holds, this will be a Cat 5, if not already
8:02 PM · Oct 22, 2019·Twitter for iPhone


He looks too be on the money.

[Hayabusa]

Eye temp finally went past 20C, Hagibis never reached this

2019OCT22 084000 6.7 929.9 132.2 6.6 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 21.15 -72.94 EYE 16 IR 40.0 18.70 -143.92 ARCHER HIM-8 22.2

[aspen]

That’s definitely not 120 kt. Dvorak estimates are all in agreement with a 130 kt Super Typhoon, and since diurnal max is starting, it could get stronger.

[Hayabusa]

TY 1921 (Bualoi)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 22 October 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 22 October>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N18°40' (18.7°)
E144°00' (144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/M4bCuZ6 x16hrs

humm a not showing the loop on my screen.

[1900hurricane]

Eyewall replacement again.

[mrbagyo]

Eye temp finally went past 20C, Hagibis never reached this

2019OCT22 084000 6.7 929.9 132.2 6.6 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 21.15 -72.94 EYE 16 IR 40.0 18.70 -143.92 ARCHER HIM-8 22.2

That sure looks hawt on band 10 (7.3μm)

[euro6208]

Classic Cat 5 now but watch JTWC go with 130 or 135 knots.

TXPQ21 KNES 221049
TCSWNP
CCA

A. 22W (BUALOI)

B. 22/0830Z

C. 18.7N

D. 144.0E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR EMBEDDED TEMP WHICH CHANGES THE DT, FT, CI,
AND LINE F. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A DT OF
7.0 AFTER A PLUS 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[aspen]

Eyewall replacement again.

https://i.imgur.com/5Bcxgb0.jpg

Wow, already? That wasn’t a long time between EWRCs.

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/zbulUmO
About 20 mins ago