WPAC: BUALOI - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
Hopefully the revised best track data takes it up to 140 knots
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
Wimpy 5 knots up...
22W BUALOI 191022 1200 19.2N 143.5E WPAC 125 939
22W BUALOI 191022 1200 19.2N 143.5E WPAC 125 939
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
euro6208 wrote:Wimpy 5 knots up...
22W BUALOI 191022 1200 19.2N 143.5E WPAC 125 939
Dvorak is still at 130 kt...I thought the JTWC followed ADT estimates religiously (like with Hagibis)? It doesn’t make sense that they refuse to give a higher intensity upgrade to a storm that is much easier to analyze than Hagibis and is clearly around 130-140 kt.
Or it could blow up again after its EWRC and become a Cat 5 then.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
aspen wrote:euro6208 wrote:Wimpy 5 knots up...
22W BUALOI 191022 1200 19.2N 143.5E WPAC 125 939
Dvorak is still at 130 kt...I thought the JTWC followed ADT estimates religiously (like with Hagibis)? It doesn’t make sense that they refuse to give a higher intensity upgrade to a storm that is much easier to analyze than Hagibis and is clearly around 130-140 kt.
Or it could blow up again after its EWRC and become a Cat 5 then.
This would highly suggest that the JTWC has some internal inconsistency regarding how they rate typhoons... which is probably the case.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR BUALOI (22W) 2019
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10220858
SATCON: MSLP = 927 hPa MSW = 136 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 131.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 128 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 175 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 3.4 knots Source: IR
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10220858
SATCON: MSLP = 927 hPa MSW = 136 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 131.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 128 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 175 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 3.4 knots Source: IR
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
Stuck with it.
22W BUALOI 191022 1200 19.2N 143.5E WPAC 125 939
22W BUALOI 191022 1200 19.2N 143.5E WPAC 125 939
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
Hope JTWC will call it a supertyphoon in the next update, I think I can settle with just that. 
As much as I'd like to see another solid and gorgeous Cat5 in the WPAC, I think Bualoi is running out of time, once it crosses the 20 N latitude, conditions will get brutal.
As much as I'd like to see another solid and gorgeous Cat5 in the WPAC, I think Bualoi is running out of time, once it crosses the 20 N latitude, conditions will get brutal.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
I don’t want to talk against the JTWC (since they’re professionals and I’m not), but were they even trying with this one? There was plenty of evidence supporting Bualoi’s peak intensity and they still underestimated it by 15-20 kt. Yes, they probably underestimated Hagibis by 30-50 kt, but that’s because of its incredibly tiny eye that did not cooperate with satellite estimates. Bualoi did not have the same excuse with its normal-sized +21 C eye.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
The JTWC has kept Bualoi at 125 kt, which now seems too high because the eye has fully filled in.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
aspen wrote:The JTWC has kept Bualoi at 125 kt, which now seems too high because the eye has fully filled in.
Happens every time with the JTWC. They lowball the RI phase, and overshoot during the ERC.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
Judging off its visible and IR appearance, Bualoi has likely weakened to 110-115 kt. Dvorak estimates have dropped to 115-120 kt (T#6.0-#6.2) and will likely continue to do so until the EWRC finishes, if it’s able to.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
Best track is still overestimated at 120 kt, despite the complete collapse of the eye and the broken eyewall as seen in the microwave imagery above.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
Wait, looks like Bualoi completed the EWRC but it might enter another cycle again.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
Bualoi has failed to recover from its EWRC and has significantly degraded today. It has run out of time to re-strengthen. Hopefully the JTWC upgrades its to a more reasonable 130-140 kt in post-season analysis.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
Chichijima is getting hammered, 190kph gust was already recorded in the island.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: BUALOI - Typhoon
It appears Bualoi finished another ERC just before it slammed into Chichijima. Was it the 3rd of 4th ERC?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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