Texas Fall 2019

[starsfan65]

How much rain is DFW suppose to get?

probably 1-2" average. Some spots maybe over 2 inches

The NAM has a really slow moving line tomorrow evening and overnight that could up totals if/where it happens

it is going to be a nasty,cold, and rainy evening.

[bubba hotep]

WPC Going all IN

[rwfromkansas]

It's going to have to rain a lot to get to that, but I think most should get an inch. I am not sure if there is enough moisture for widespread 3-inch totals...

[starsfan65]

It's going to have to rain a lot to get to that, but I think most should get an inch. I am not sure if there is enough moisture for widespread 3-inch totals...

not enough moisture?

[Brent]

It's going to have to rain a lot to get to that, but I think most should get an inch. I am not sure if there is enough moisture for widespread 3-inch totals...

I do think that's a bullish map but if that slow moving line the NAM has(and I've seen hints in other models) does verify it could add up quick

this is gonna be the first storm that isn't basically over in a few hours it seems, Friday is trending wetter too

[bubba hotep]

It's going to have to rain a lot to get to that, but I think most should get an inch. I am not sure if there is enough moisture for widespread 3-inch totals...

[Texas Snow]

So are the NAM and GFs caving toward the euro solution that’s been advertised the past week with slower less progressive system?

While I love and need the rain, I have two daughters in a homecoming parade Friday afternoon and game Friday night that I’m afraid may be washed out.

[Haris]

Looks like a solid 1-3" here in the AUS, area with isolated severe storms from ample instability. Looking forward!

NAM has 4" !

[Brent]

So are the NAM and GFs caving toward the euro solution that’s been advertised the past week with slower less progressive system?

While I love and need the rain, I have two daughters in a homecoming parade Friday afternoon and game Friday night that I’m afraid may be washed out.

that has been the trend although the heaviest at least of the rain is over Friday morning it seems. I'm thinking Friday afternoon/evening is gonna be chilly and damp

[Ntxw]

It is cold season type rain. Neutral-Neg tilt storm so 1-2" likely, some maybe 3" in a sweet spot. Some may even get dry slotted, but it will feel very much like Nov-Dec.

[Brent]

0z Euro entire metro at/over 2.5" with a bullseye over 3" in the north metro

Light rain continues well into Friday Evening

also its all aboard the pre-Halloween front still, Tuesday is in the mid 70s with fropa late and then Wednesday is in the 40s with a freeze or close to it Halloween morning and Halloween is struggling to mid 40s which btw the coldest Halloween on record had a high of 43

there is actually some snow flurries(yes I said that) along the Red River it appears late on Wednesday

[gpsnowman]

The beginning of our rain is showing out west. Snow flying in Colorado and Kansas currently.

[rwfromkansas]

It's going to have to rain a lot to get to that, but I think most should get an inch. I am not sure if there is enough moisture for widespread 3-inch totals...

not enough moisture?

Earlier in the week they said higher totals would be limited due to lack of deep moisture.

This now appears to be a much less progressive system, so it will pump in more moisture and allow for rain to move out slower, so my information was apparently old.

[TheProfessor]

Amarillo is getting a pretty decent snow event today. Of course even to my standards 6 inches of snow that far south at this time of year is pretty crazy.

[Cerlin]

Very jealous of our Amarillo friends today. I’m hoping for a Halloween miracle.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Already in the 40s with on and off heavy rain.

[rwfromkansas]

Some video of the snow in Amarillo is pretty impressive. It's coming down hard. Hopefully as we get further into winter the systems will approach in a way that lets us as far east as DFW get some of it. Some winters it digs too far west and so we get only rain. Other times it digs too far east so even they get nothing. This winter looks like it could have some solid potential so far.

[Brent]

Some video of the snow in Amarillo is pretty impressive. It's coming down hard. Hopefully as we get further into winter the systems will approach in a way that lets us as far east as DFW get some of it. Some winters it digs too far west and so we get only rain. Other times it digs too far east so even they get nothing. This winter looks like it could have some solid potential so far.

I'm definitely optimistic about a better potential this winter but its so early. I hope the pattern is still around in December/January

the 12z Euro now has a big widespread chilly rain event on Wednesday before the really cold Halloween again

[weatherdude1108]

Watch unlikely. Parallel storm motions to the front. I'll take the rain and cold!




Mesoscale Discussion 2111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019

Areas affected...portions of central/southern TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241917Z - 242115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms, a few strong, could produce marginally
severe hail and locally strong wind gusts across parts of central
and southern Texas through this evening.

DISCUSSION...Showers in the vicinity of a southeastward-advancing
cold front over the Concho Valley/Edwards Plateau vicinity continue
to deepen/intensify this afternoon. Latest mesoanalysis and modified
forecast soundings suggest some weak capping is still present across
the area, but this should continue to quickly erode over the next
couple of hours. As this occurs, weak to moderate instability and
marginal effective shear should allow for thunderstorms to quickly
develop and organize into semi-discrete cells and/or clusters. While
vertical shear is not particularly strong below 500 mb, directional
shear will support weakly rotating updrafts. In the presence of
modest midlevel lapse rates, this could allow for strongest cells to
produce marginally severe hail. Strong heating ahead of the front
has led to steep low level lapse rates while PW values are
approaching 1.5 inches. This in turn could foster a few strong
downdrafts and gusty, locally damaging wind could occur with any
convection that remains ahead of the cold front. However, storm
motion is expected to be roughly parallel to the front, and storms
could quickly become elevated as they are undercut by the cold
front. In conjunction with rather weak 0-3 km winds, this should act
to limit severe wind gusts. In general, the severe threat should
remain marginal/sporadic across portions of central/southern TX into
early evening.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 10/24/2019

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 27829993 28090022 28400044 29030081 29540118 30500015
31219905 31519849 31639799 31459754 31179730 30609720
29849759 28939833 28089948 27829993

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose:

Widespread Rain and Thunderstorms Forecast Thursday Night.
Thursday, October 24, 2019 1:45 PM

A big change in the weather is forecast this afternoon into Friday morning when a strong cold front pushes across the region, causing widespread rain and thunderstorms. The front will also bring much cooler temperatures. As of late Thursday morning, the cold front was situated over Northwest Texas, stretching from Gainesville, to just east of Abilene, San Angelo and Fort Stockton. Temperatures immediately behind the front were in the 40s and 50s, with 30s across the Texas Panhandle. Updated forecasts call for the cold front to reach the northern Hill Country early this afternoon, sliding south to the Llano/Fredericksburg area between about 3 and 6 pm. The front is forecast to move through the Austin area sometime between 5 and 8 pm, reaching La Grange before midnight. The front is forecast to push off the middle Texas coast before sunrise Friday.

In advance of the cold front, considerable moisture will be spreading north from the Gulf, causing atmospheric moisture levels to increase. There will be a 30-40 percent chance for the development of scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region this afternoon.

But the primary focus for rain and thunderstorms is expected to be along and just behind the cold front. Rain and storms are forecast to develop across the Hill Country by mid-afternoon, with the activity spreading southeast this evening and overnight. Forecasts continue to show some possibility that a few of the storms may be strong to severe, with the primary severe weather threats being large hail and damaging downburst winds. The tornado threat will be low. The Hill Country and Central Texas regions have been placed under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon through late tonight.

High resolution forecasts call for the development of widespread moderate rain and scattered thunderstorms along and just behind the cold front. These same forecasts call for widespread lighter rains continuing overnight and into Friday morning. The rain is forecast to taper off across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions by about midday Friday and tapering off across the coastal plains region by late afternoon.

Rain amounts across the region between this afternoon and Friday evening are forecast to generally be between 1 and 3 inches due to the rain's slow movement. A few isolated totals to near 4 inches will be possible.

Windy conditions are expected to develop behind the cold front this evening, continuing overnight and into Friday. Northwesterly winds are forecast to increase to 20-30 mph. Occasional gusts to 40 mph will be possible. The National Weather Service has posted a Wind Advisory for the Hill Country and Central Texas regions from 7 pm this evening through 4 pm Friday afternoon.

Much cooler temperatures are forecast:

•Lows Friday morning will be near 40-42 degrees across the Hill Country, the mid and upper 40s across Central Texas and in the upper 50s towards the coast.

•High temperatures Friday will be in the mid and upper 50s across the Hill Country and Central Texas and in the 60s across the coastal plains.

•Lows Saturday morning will range from the upper 30s across the Hill Country to the upper 40s near the coast.

•High temperatures Saturday will be in the upper 60s.

https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx


EWX Discussion:

000
FXUS64 KEWX 242010
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
310 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
At 3PM the cold front was just south of a Brady to Sonora line with
the dry line pushing into far northwest Val Verde County. As
mentioned in the morning update, the 12Z HREF guidance has converged
nicely on the timing of the front and convective evolution across the
area.

Capping has almost completely eroded and SPC mesoanalysis reveals
MLCAPE of around 1500-2000 J/kg developing through portions of the
southern Edwards Plataea and northwest Hill Country. We expect
additional shower and storm development through the late afternoon
across this region as forcing from the front arrives and overtakes
the dryline. Initially some storms could produce small to marginally
severe hail in addition to stronger downdrafts producing gusty winds.
Guidance is in agreement with a line of storms evolving this evening
into the remainder of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor trailing
all the way back to the Rio Grande. There still could be a window for
strong to marginally severe storms up through the I-35 corridor,
before updrafts begin to get undercut by the cold pool.

However, the main threat as the storms develop into portions of the
southeast Hill Country and urban areas of the I-35 corridor will be
heavy rainfall. Rainfall rates could lead to localized areas of flash
flooding concerns. A widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall is indicated
across this region. However, convective allowing and global models
have been consistent with indicating pockets of 3-4 inches. Where
these pockets occur is difficult to pinpoint, but will likely be the
locations for the potential for flooding.

Hi resolution and global models have trended more progressive with
the rain ending west to east early Friday morning, and so has our
forecast, as dry slotting around the base of the mid and upper level
low occurs across South Central Texas.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for post frontal winds. Initially a
strong surge of wind is forecast to develop down the Rio Grande and
portions of the I-35 corridor behind the front this evening, then a
little more widespread mid morning through early afternoon on Friday.
Sustained winds of 20-30 mph are expected, with some locations
seeing gusts around 35-40 mph.

Much cooler on Friday with high temperatures tricky. The NAM12
is colder and slower clearing out the cloud cover versus the global
models. Generally mid an upper 50s are forecast through the Hill
Country and Central Texas with low to mid 60s elsewhere, however the
gusty north winds will make it feel cooler.

Winds gradually subside late in the day on Friday, with lows by
Saturday morning into the 40s for most locations, and even upper 30s
across portions of the Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Another upper level trough is forecast to develop across the western
CONUS on Sunday and move east through the southern Rockies and into
the Plains on Monday. A warming trend is expected across the area
over the weekend. This some disagreement still in the models on
whether a weak, dry frontal boundary will make it into the area on
Monday, with the GFS indicating a passage but the 12Z ECMWF not
indicating the weak front until Tuesday. Global models do agree on a
stronger front for Wednesday, however the GFS is dry while the ECMWF
and Canadian develop precip along and behind.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 48 59 46 70 48 / 100 20 - 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 49 60 45 70 46 / 100 20 - 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 48 64 44 71 46 / 100 10 - 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 44 56 41 68 45 / 100 10 - 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 46 65 41 76 47 / 50 - - 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 46 58 43 69 46 / 100 20 10 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 47 65 43 74 46 / 100 - - 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 47 60 44 71 45 / 100 10 - 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 52 61 46 70 46 / 100 20 - - 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 49 63 46 71 49 / 100 10 - 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 50 65 46 71 48 / 100 10 - 0 0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Friday for
Atascosa-Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-
Dimmit-Edwards-Fayette-Frio-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-
Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Maverick-Medina-Real-
Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Wilson-Zavala.