Possible development in the Southwestern GOM(is invest 97L)

[Nancy Smar]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula
and Belize are associated with a tropical wave. This system is
forecast to move west-northwestward and emerge over the extreme
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday. Some development is
then possible on Friday near the east coast of Mexico before the
disturbance likely becomes absorbed by a cold front this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[floridasun78]

look like area moving from nw Caribbean too boc that nhc watching

[chris_fit]

Up to 30%

[Gums]

Salute!

Are we looking at Nestor II ???
Gulf still warm and that last front didn't do much to weaken Nestor, so I am not counting on the next front to help much.
We Panhandle folks monitor that area of the Gulf more than many due to our past experiences in September and October.

Gums sends...

[GCANE]

LL Vort now over water

[WxEp]

A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and the adjacent waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and emerge
over the Bay of Campeche on Thursday, and then move northward and
northeastward into the southwestern and central Gulf of Mexico on
Friday and Saturday. Some development will be possible on Friday
and early Saturday before the system merges with a cold front by
early Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[artist]

[Dean4Storms]

Seeing a pretty good low level rotation near 22N 95W in visible this afternoon. This pops some deep convection overnight and we might have a player.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over southern
Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, and the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Some
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while it moves generally northwestward and then northward over
the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is then forecast to merge
with a cold front over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[Nancy Smar]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE INVEST NEAR
24.0N 95.5W FOR 25/1730Z.

[USTropics]

The 12z ensemble guidance has increased in probability of development:

ECMWF ensembles


GFS ensembles:


A frontal boundary will be pushing off the Texas coast in 2-3 days, and will be extended over the WGOM:


Given the more N to E tilt, expect strung out vorticity along multiple areas of low pressure up towards LA, as shown by the 18z GFS:


A weak spinup that is fully subtropical can't be ruled out though, suggested by the UKMET:

[TheProfessor]

Don't know if anything will spin up, but it's looking like a good chance for a pretty decent heavy rain event for the northern Gulf Coast. Nonetheless this whole system should be watched because heavy rain and flooding on its own can cause problems.

[GCANE]

Looks like it hung in there overnight.
Saw one short-duration, high rain-rate hot tower fire about 40 min ago at 08:00Z

[GCANE]

Merging with the front, it appears this will be a big rain maker thru the midwest into the eastern seaboard.
Quite a few states will be effected. Likely a big story in the media.
Big dip in temperatures behind this.

[NDG]

Something is developing down there, pressures are falling and a very apparent circulation is seen.

[Steve H.]

Yeah definitely a nice spin trying to get going and some pretty good convection. Let's see what happens.

[GCANE]

More high rain-rate towers firing off with increasing helicity.

[NDG]

The disturbance has around 36-48 hrs at the most to develop before the cold fronts sweeps through the western GOM, the 0z Euro develops it but when I look closely it looks to do it when it merges with the front and eventually rips its apart as it gains latitude in the GOM.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have increased and are
showing some signs of organization, this morning. This system has
the opportunity for some short-term development while it moves
northward before it merges with a cold front by late Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi