ATL: OLGA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

97L INVEST 191024 1200 19.8N 93.8W ATL 25 NA

[Dean4Storms]

I was about to post that this should get designated an Invest anytime now.

[tropicwatch]

Definitely tagged quicker then Nestor was that had a higher percentage of development.

[Dean4Storms]

SHIP gets it to a TS with 40kt winds.

[Nancy Smar]

TXNT29 KNES 241217
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 24/1201Z

C. 20.0N

D. 92.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY A MID-LEVEL CENTER WITH GREATER
THAN 2/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10 SCALE. DT=1.0 MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[NDG]

Looking at the first vis sat loop it has a nice closed surface circulation with southerly inflow into the convection, CoC might still be on the broad side.

[MarioProtVI]

I don’t see any indication this has a closed circulation. Satellite data shows that it is just a broad trough and I don’t see this developing quick enough before the cold front absorbs this system tomorrow. Did show some 30 kt winds but might be transient.

[ronjon]

Looks like a TD as of now - when is recon scheduled?

[Nancy Smar]

Early morning visible satellite images indicate that the
circulation of the low pressure area in the Bay of Campeche has
become a little better defined. The associated showers and
thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, and this
system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it
merges with a cold front by late Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Steve H.]

Some interest in the Melbourne FL, NWS Disco: Sun-Wed... A low pressure with an attached cold front will be
lifting to the northeast from the eastern states of the Midwest on
Sun. This front will drag from the gulf states and move east and as
it does, the local wind pattern will shift from the south and bring
even more moisture and instability to east central FL. By Mon
morning, the aforementioned low will exit the northeast US and a low
will develop over the northeast Gulf along the front. This low will
then reach the southeast US by Tue morning. After this, GFS and
Euro don`t agree on what this low will do. GFS shows the low lifting
more towards the northeast and by Wed its associated front will push
towards FL. This solution will be great for us as dew points could
drop to the upper 60s and max temps could remain below 80. However,
the Euro develops a broad area of low pressure and instead builds a
ridge across the local area from the northeast. So the forecast was
taking more towards the GFS solution.

Hopefully the front pushes through Florida and brings relief from the temperatures and humidity. Not sure what it would mean in the Euro solution, though this isn't considering the "tropical Low", but a different area of low pressure. BTW, the Recon investigation position is to the NW of it's current position. So there is uncertainty with the forecast, but it does seem that the BOC low should turn north/northeast ahead of the cold front but again, the front will die in the eastern GOM, if not only for a few days which could make the scenario more complex. Interesting setup as they usually are as we move into fall.

[PTrackerLA]

Already looks better than Nestor ever did IMO. Looks like moisture will be tapped from this system with the front tomorrow enhancing rains in SE Texas and LA.

[ronjon]

Developing pretty rapidly this am - looks to be moving slowly N-NW. Euro and TABM bring it on a similar path as Nestor.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting.. looks closed and quickly organizing..

Some overshooting tops which appear to be rotating around in the sw side of main ball of convection

[Emmett_Brown]

Unlike Nestor, 97L looks fully tropical. Shear not bad for the next 24 hours.

[GCANE]

Convection firing NE of the CoC

[chaser1]

Pretty impressive and trying to get it's act together this a.m. The LLC appears to be pretty close to 94W and there are hints of small banding features on it's south side. Seems to me that it might be a small core which would suggest the possibility of a relatively quick spin-up. Only thing is that the CDO looks like it wants to already lift to the north. We'll have to see if continued convection can maintain itself over center (or for any developing LLC to begin moving north or NNE in tandem). Aided by a westward moving mid/upper level low to it's east, the outflow in nearly all quadrants is quite divergent. For the immediate future, there's no dry air getting entrained into this developing low. I'd guess it has a 24-36 hr window of opportunity to form but overall conditions look about as conducive right now as there gonna be. I could potentially see a quick spin-up to T.S. intensity. Something this small (inner core, not overall envelope) is generally better initialized by GFS then EURO but i'm not sure that any model has too much a handle on it at the moment. As good as it looks though, I can't help think that it's vertical column is going to get progressively tilted north/south throughout the day; with the MLC trying to lift away from the LLC. Will be an interesting day to sit back and observe.

[chaser1]

New convection firing up near/over what i'd suggest is still a ill defined center close to 20.5N and 94W. No doubt there's a healthy low level inflow coming into the southwest quadrant from the northwest, west, and southwest. Satellite bears out that there's certainly NO issue with present surface convergence. Also, zero dry air entraining into the developing circulation either. Biggest question is whether it can develop an aligned vertical core enough to deepen during today into tonight. This may or may not fully develop but one's things for sure, there's no comparison to "Cold Front Low Nestor" which was pretty much devoid of tropical features. This on the other hand is trying to develop within a purely tropical environment.

[Aric Dunn]

We need recon. This is almost certainly a td right now.

[tropicwatch]

This is from one of our local meteorologist here in Panama City. I hope he is right but I don't know if I would make such a definitive statement at this stage of the game.

[chaser1]

We need recon. This is almost certainly a td right now.

I don't know Aric...... I mean, yeah there's west winds pulling into the circ and some convection right over where a COC seems to be trying to form. I just think the core is not quite defined yet. I'd like to see the convection maintain and expand over center but the primary CDO is east and north of the LLC and moving north. It sure is trying to make a good go of it though.