Texas Fall 2019

[Brent]

it was 72 earlier and is now 57 with the rain moving in

the good news is the severe threat should be nil

[dhweather]

it was 72 earlier and is now 57 with the rain moving in

the good news is the severe threat should be nil

Exactly.

[aggiecutter]

Snow at Brent's house for Halloween?

[Haris]

Getting some torrential rains. Will have total tonight

[South Texas Storms]

I've been waiting so long for this Texas radar! What a beautiful sight with all of the beneficial rainfall spreading across the state.

[weatherdude1108]

Pouring rain here and windy with some lightning for the last 15 minutes.

Temp 64 and dropping. Was 78.

[EnnisTx]

0.6 inches so far for me in Arlington.

[Shoshana]

Tiny hail, rain, wind and lightning...

[Ntxw]

Funny you should mention this, Ntxw, because I have been privately wondering if there would be some kind of rubberband/snap-back effect in the atmosphere when it eventually changes. If there was any justice in the weather world, we'd be compensated for this horrible, relentless heat with colder and wetter than normal late Fall and all Winter. Well, a fella can hope, right?!

That does make some sense. Wouldn't there be some lag time in the atmosphere to "catch up" to the cooling of the said Nino areas?

But at the same time, it seems like the lack of rain and heat ridge happened really abruptly, starting in mid-July for us in Central Texas.

It seems like in years with the El Ninos, there is a lag time of several months before the atmosphere reciprocates the ocean currents, and the feedback loop starts, and the rains come. Maybe comparable to the Summer solstice and hottest temperatures a couple months after that (or through September and mid-October, in this year's case). Just some thoughts.

The NAO/AO couplet was running on average negative up until about the end of July and early August. That then allowed the ridge to meander in and make resident in the southern and eastern US. The two oscillations are reversing course so in due time it will flip. ENSO is a better predictor down the road, the very negative SOI that we have seen in September (monthly means now over -15) correlates well to a cooler/wetter later half of October into December.

In fact, I am willing to make a bet that October will flip entirely from the first week to the last 3 weeks, relative to normals.

We do have to account for the expanding hadley cells in particular from SSTs. The warming Oceans are juxtaposed to our usual relative climo regarding these ridges.

This was a great call back in September! In fact the writing was on the wall deep in September of the flip. Now on the verge of a cold, chilly Halloween with freeze potential well ahead of schedule.

If continuing course using the same metrics, this kind of pattern likes to persists on average 30-45 day increments. So December it goes!

[Haris]

I’ve gotten 1.37”. (Not in FF warning)

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1187456574073245697

[TheProfessor]

Gonna be a fun day for me tomorrow. Going to be a decent rain even here. My dad and I will be heading down to NOLA to go watch the Mavericks play so hopefully nothing too crazy lol.

[weatherdude1108]

Just checked gauge. 1.1 inches since 6:45 pm. This post is at 8:40 pm.

56 degrees. Love it!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Nice you guys are getting the beneficial rain with this storm!

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies look to keep this pattern locked in through early December. They show a bit of a relaxation and warming towards the end of the run but it has been too warm in the longer range the last couple of weeks.

[weatherdude1108]

My brother and dad in San Antonio sent me a series of texts:


"Sw of SA was a big area of exceptional drought. It's all heavy rain over that are.. still pouring here 35 minutes now"

"Still raining with gusto here. I'd like to check gauge but it's coming down too hard."

"This is biggest rain here since June!"

"Cold air comes rushing in when we open sliding door. "

"5 inches of rain have been reported at 1604 and bitters"

"One hour 6 minutes now after past 10 minutes of moderate to heavy.. now heavy again"

"I'm sure Dad and I will have a much bigger total than airport "

[weatherdude1108]

Raining light to moderately again. I'll check my gauge tomorrow for the final total.

[South Texas Storms]

My brother and dad in San Antonio sent me a series of texts:


"Sw of SA was a big area of exceptional drought. It's all heavy rain over that are.. still pouring here 35 minutes now"

"Still raining with gusto here. I'd like to check gauge but it's coming down too hard."

"This is biggest rain here since June!"

"Cold air comes rushing in when we open sliding door. "

"5 inches of rain have been reported at 1604 and bitters"

"One hour 6 minutes now after past 10 minutes of moderate to heavy.. now heavy again"

"I'm sure Dad and I will have a much bigger total than airport "

Yeah my parents live near that 5 inch rainfall report

Very beneficial rainfall event still ongoing across south central Texas. Praise the Lord!

[weatherdude1108]

My brother and dad in San Antonio sent me a series of texts:


"Sw of SA was a big area of exceptional drought. It's all heavy rain over that are.. still pouring here 35 minutes now"

"Still raining with gusto here. I'd like to check gauge but it's coming down too hard."

"This is biggest rain here since June!"

"Cold air comes rushing in when we open sliding door. "

"5 inches of rain have been reported at 1604 and bitters"

"One hour 6 minutes now after past 10 minutes of moderate to heavy.. now heavy again"

"I'm sure Dad and I will have a much bigger total than airport "

Yeah my parents live near that 5 inch rainfall report

Very beneficial rainfall event still ongoing across south central Texas. Praise the Lord!

That is great, although now I am seeing reports of law enforcement saying that I 35 is shut down at O'Connor Road because 3 feet of water is covering road. Drought to flood.

[Haris]

Rain filling in indeed. Pouring again at my place. Up to 1.5”. Hell yes