ATL: PABLO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 98, 2019102512, , BEST, 0, 360N, 330W, 30, 1009, LO,

[EquusStorm]

Ha, called it. Maybe a Karl 1980 repeat?

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looks like it is nameable to me right now. Looks like a tiny Hurricane even though I doubt it's that strong.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Very similar to Grace (2009), its location is almost the same too.

[HurricaneRyan]

I hope this gets named

[AnnularCane]

That is just TOO CUTE!

Sorry, but...yeah.

[northjaxpro]

I hope this gets named

I think it is a TC now. It will get named in all likelihood later.

[TallyTracker]

This is the most tropical looking system of October in my opinion! I suspect it’s a solid tropical storm now. The models may not have picked up on it due to it’s small size.

[CyclonicFury]

Looking very impressive for an "invest."

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yea... this is at least a 55 knot TS.

[EquusStorm]

Eye developing amidst shallow convection as is the norm for systems like this, with gale force winds. Significantly more namable than everything else this year besides the hurricanes and Gabrielle so almost certain trigger gets pulled soon

[HurricaneEnzo]

Def. should get a name sooner rather than later. Tiny little system embedded in a larger circulation. These type of storms are super interesting!

[EquusStorm]

Yeah I LOVE these weird tiny embedded systems in midlatitide systems, fascinating in both origin and appearance. And rarely causes major casualties or damage lol

[northjaxpro]

Well, looks like we are catching up quickly on named storms developing in this month. By the end of today, we in good probability will have 4 named storms for the month. I predicted we would have five.

May have shot at this predix after all. As we have seen already, we can get quick spin-ups to develop.

.

[cycloneye]

Here comes Pablo.

[KWT]

Clearly a tropical storm at the moment, kinda reminding me of what Vince/Grace looked like, also not too dissimilar to alot of those 'medicanes' that we see in the mediterrean. Small, compact with a clear structure.

Seems to be intensifying at the moment as well, great presentation!

[Buck]

Wow, look at this little one! I assume they will wait until 5PM, but I love watching this type of late-season storm.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1187784068030750727

[cycloneye]

Shower activity continues to become better organized in association
with a small-scale low pressure area embedded within a larger
extratropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the
Azores. If current trends continue, advisories on a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could be initiated later today. The low is
forecast to move toward the east-northeast, and interests in the
Azores should monitor the progress of this system. For more
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[KWT]

Shower activity continues to become better organized in association
with a small-scale low pressure area embedded within a larger
extratropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the
Azores. If current trends continue, advisories on a tropical or
subtropical cyclone could be initiated later today. The low is
forecast to move toward the east-northeast, and interests in the
Azores should monitor the progress of this system. For more
information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Well thats certainly an understatement, the system is 1000% a TS right now, not sure why they are holding back from it to be brutally honest!

Still, the NHC has got form on being FAR too conservative, if this wasn't out where it was, it would already have been Olga 6hrs ago...