ATL: OLGA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Two solid indications of strong latent heating underway.
Front appears to be washing out.

[facemane]

We're having some nasty weather here on the Ms. coast this morning. I've received 2 tornado warnings
and another stating we're under a tornado watch until 4 pm CDT

[NDG]

One thing that TD 17 has that Nestor never had is a well defined LLC with convection close to it.
On the visible satellite I can clearly see that the cold front has not gotten to it yet, we can’t go by just the very few surface observations.

[NDG]

The cold front is about 50 miles or so west of the LLC, it will be interesting if the LLC can stay ahead of it this afternoon, once it reaches the LLC game over for it.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... t=vis-swir

[northjaxpro]

We're having some nasty weather here on the Ms. coast this morning. I've received 2 tornado warnings
and another stating we're under a tornado watch until 4 pm CDT

Yep. We have a very juicy, unstable airmass across the Lower Mississippi River Valley region and Northern Gulf Coast region today. We could see quite an outbreak of tornadoes unfortunately today across these regions. I would most definitely be on very heightened alert today and into tonight for those living in these regions! Helicity profiles I am looking at currently definitely support the risk of tornadoes today.

[northjaxpro]

This is going to be a close call with regards to when the front gets near the LLC and when Recon gets in there early this afternoon. This afternoon's Recon will be rather interesting.

[GCANE]

Hmmm, Ahhhh!!!

[SoupBone]

Hmmm, Ahhhh!!!

https://i.imgur.com/eNJSURb.png

I said it yesterday, and I'll say it again today, if this was mid-August or September, I'd be worried today in Texas. Luckily, that front is keeping it away from us.

[TheProfessor]

We've had some pretty hefty showers on and off since around 3 this morning, probably have more rain out of this than what I got from Barry already, but that's not saying much lol.

[Steve H.]

Wow, 49 degrees in North Houston? I don't think we got down to 49 all last winter. Here in Melbourne it's 84 and rain with a dewpoint of like 75 yuck. I hope we get a cold front that will push clear through the keys soon. It's the weather I live for here.... 70 and sunny. Our TD looks like a lot of rain and maybe some tornadoes unfortunately.. And will continue the moist flow here at least through the weekend.

[Nimbus]

Still some moisture to the west of the system but the fact that we can see the LLC is proof of the shear.
If it stays together till tonight they may post TS warnings as the forward motion will bring some stronger winds onshore east side of the circulation.

[slamdaddy]

1.31" of rain at my locale since 3am. kind over now, not raining. slight clearing. pressure 1014mb. warm and muggy.

[NDG]

Buoy 42002 reported wind gusts to 37 knots in the last hour, pressure down to 1006mb.
Most likely the recon will find TS Olga.

[tolakram]

What a battle.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=3671.8231201171875&y=5701.89501953125

[GCANE]

That tower nailed it.

[GCANE]

Round 2 goes to 17L
Front is a wimp

[GCANE]

I don't think I have seen a TC push out shear as well as this.
Most likely due to late-season cooling effect of the upper troposphere.

[GCANE]

Recon in the air

[SunnyThoughts]

We're having some nasty weather here on the Ms. coast this morning. I've received 2 tornado warnings
and another stating we're under a tornado watch until 4 pm CDT

Yep. We have a very juicy, unstable airmass across the Lower Mississippi River Valley region and Northern Gulf Coast region today. We could see quite an outbreak of tornadoes unfortunately today across these regions. I would most definitely be on very heightened alert today and into tonight for those living in these regions! Helicity profiles I am looking at currently definitely support the risk of tornadoes today.

Tornado warning out now for metro Mobile, Ala. Everybody be careful out there this weekend.

[KWT]

Recon in the air

I've few doubts it will find some TS winds, the only question is Olga or Pablo? As 98L is 100% a TS as well at this point.