NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8812
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#61 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:16 pm

ADT estimates just keep on rising...now up to 120-125 kt, so I’m guessing an intensity around that range, or slightly higher, is a good bet for the next advisory. The eye is also starting to show its first >0 C regions and become more symmetrical.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
Tailspin

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#62 Postby Tailspin » Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:25 pm

Image
https://imgur.com/xVSr3DV
18z sim
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#63 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:44 pm

Adt just found an eye of 13.5 degrees with a -77.5 degrees CDO which would be consistent with an instantaneous T7.0/140 knots which would be cat 5
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
Tailspin

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#64 Postby Tailspin » Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:45 pm

Bench marks NIO basin.
Gay , 898 hPa , in November 1989
- Gorky , 898 hPa , in April 1991
- Orissa , <912 hPa , in November 1999
- 02B , 916 hPa , in May 1990
- Phailin , 918 hPa in October 2013
- Gonu , 920 hPa , in June 2007

http://www.cyclonextreme.com/cyclonenewstechnique10.htm


Image


Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8812
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#65 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:14 pm

Highteeld wrote:Adt just found an eye of 13.5 degrees with a -77.5 degrees CDO which would be consistent with an instantaneous T7.0/140 knots which would be cat 5


The eye is still a little too ragged for Kyarr to be a Cat 5 just yet, but 125-130 kt seems like a good estimate. It’s possible It could get to T#7.0 before dry air or an EWRC stops intensification.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#66 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:15 pm

Delta T ~93°C, entry level cat 5 is around 90°... Kyarr is probably a Cat 5 now
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3711
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:
Contact mrbagyo

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#67 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:16 pm

Haha, I can no longer access the link to the amazing Electro-L2 satellite. Maybe, the Russian site blocked my IP.

I should have used a VPN before accessing that possibly encrypted site
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Top
Tailspin

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#68 Postby Tailspin » Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:36 pm

:uarrow: If you don't mind. What is the link you had pls.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3711
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:
Contact mrbagyo

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#69 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:44 pm

Tailspin wrote::uarrow: If you don't mind. What is the link you had pls.



ftp://ntsomz.gptl.ru:2121/
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8812
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

#70 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:47 pm

Kyarr may be up to 135 kt based on ADT estimates. The new best track intensity will be out soon, so it won’t be long before we’ll see how much it’s upgraded by.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
Tailspin

Re: NIO: KYARR - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#71 Postby Tailspin » Sat Oct 26, 2019 7:54 pm

Image
Last edited by Tailspin on Sat Oct 26, 2019 8:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: NIO: KYARR - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#72 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Oct 26, 2019 8:06 pm

04A KYARR 191027 0000 17.0N 68.3E IO 125 935
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8812
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: NIO: KYARR - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#73 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 26, 2019 8:07 pm

Nancy Smar wrote:04A KYARR 191027 0000 17.0N 68.3E IO 125 935


That looks a bit conservative. 130 kt is in better agreement with ADT estimates.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: NIO: KYARR - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#74 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 26, 2019 8:30 pm

TPIO10 PGTW 270030

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A (KYARR)

B. 26/2346Z

C. 17.02N

D. 68.29E

E. ONE/MET8

F. T7.0/7.0/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 7.0 MET 7.0 PT 7.0 DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


STIGSSON
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8812
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: NIO: KYARR - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#75 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 26, 2019 8:52 pm

Just hit T#7.0/140 kt.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: NIO: KYARR - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#76 Postby Highteeld » Sat Oct 26, 2019 8:54 pm

Very close to theoretical MPI right now
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3711
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:
Contact mrbagyo

Re: NIO: KYARR - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#77 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 26, 2019 9:03 pm

Image
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: NIO: KYARR - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#78 Postby Nancy Smar » Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:06 pm

FKIN21 DEMS 270255
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20191027/0000Z
TC: KYARR
NR: 11
PSN: N1700 E06812
MOV: WNW07KT
C: 0938HPA
MAX WIND: 115KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 27/0600Z N1712 E06724
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 125 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 27/1200Z N1724 E06648
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 135KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 27/1800Z N1736 E06618
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 140KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 28/0000Z N1754 E06542
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 130KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20191027/0900Z
TOO: 280800 HRS IST

Could be a SUCS very soon.
IT IS VERY LIKELY TO FURTHER INTENSIFY INTO A SUPER CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 3 HOURS.
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3711
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:
Contact mrbagyo

Re: NIO: KYARR - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#79 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:16 pm

Morning Visible image from INSAT is hawt

Image
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2454
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:
Contact doomhaMwx

Re: NIO: KYARR - Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm

#80 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:17 am

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10270207
SATCON: MSLP = 938 hPa MSW = 134 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 130.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 124 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 210 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 1.8 knots Source: MW

Image
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 30 guests