ATL: PABLO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

It strengthened to 60 kt which maybe conservative according to the last advisory. It is interesting that Grace in 2009 also had 60 kt peak intensity originally but it was downgraded to 55 kt in its TCR while Pablo may will be upgraded from 60 kt in the post-season.

Pablo is very cute in the European staellite.

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

Good chance this reaches hurricane intensity by 11 if it keeps up this look.

[TallyTracker]

Pablo looks like a hurricane. This is likely the second time it’s been a hurricane. If it’s not upgraded at 11 am, it should be upgraded in post season.

[Do_For_Love]

Man, that is a tiny storm.

Sort of seems to me like azores/coastal western europe has seen more TC activity in recent years, although I don't have any data to back that up. Just an impression.

[AnnularCane]

This cute little guy is certainly making the most of the time he has!

[Nancy Smar]

056
WTNT43 KNHC 271450
TCDAT3

Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

Satellite imagery shows that Pablo has continued to maintain a
small eye, and that the eyewall cloud tops have recently cooled.
In addition, early morning microwave satellite intensity estimates,
as well as the CIMSS satellite consensus, indicate that Pablo has
become a hurricane. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt as
a blend between the subjective estimate from TAFB and the higher
SATCON estimate, and it is possible this is a little conservative.
The intensification has occurred while Pablo is over sea surface
temperatures of 19-20C, and it is likely that cold mid- to
upper-level air temperatures have allowed the cyclone to maintain
deep convection and strengthen over water temperatures where
tropical cyclones normally weaken.

The initial motion is now 030/28. The cyclone is expected to turn
northward and slow its forward motion as it approaches a frontal
system to the north during the next 12-24 h, and this will be
followed by a turn toward the northwest as a large mid-latitude low
over the north central Atlantic becomes the main steering mechanism.
The track guidance has again shifted a little to the east, and the
new forecast track is also nudged a little to the east of the
previous track. Like the previous forecast, it lies close to the
various consensus models.

Pablo should encounter even colder water along the forecast track,
and global model guidance suggests it should merge with the frontal
system between 12-24 h. This combination should cause Pablo to
weaken and become an extratropical cyclone. Thereafter, the system
should be absorbed by the much larger low to its west between 48-72
h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 42.8N 18.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 45.3N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 46.9N 17.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 29/0000Z 47.9N 18.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 29/1200Z 49.5N 20.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[1900hurricane]

Looks about 75 kt to me right now, much stronger than at any previous points in its life due to a much better convective presentation.

[Buck]

He did it!

Where does Pablo fall in the most northern and most eastern becoming a hurricane records? I think Vince still has him beat on eastern and I know the last few years seem to have had one or two more northerly hurricane classifications.

[Ubuntwo]

He did it!

Where does Pablo fall in the most northern and most eastern becoming a hurricane records? I think Vince still has him beat on eastern and I know the last few years seem to have had one or two more northerly hurricane classifications.

He did beat out Vince as furthest east Atlantic Hurricane.

[Buck]

He did it!

Where does Pablo fall in the most northern and most eastern becoming a hurricane records? I think Vince still has him beat on eastern and I know the last few years seem to have had one or two more northerly hurricane classifications.

He did beat out Vince as furthest east Atlantic Hurricane.

I see that now... 18.9 vs 18.3 W

[aspen]

Pablo is holding himself together very well, so much so that I would be surprised if the system isn’t upgraded to 70-75 kt for the next advisory.

[Buck]

Pablo combined with the "Medicane" near Egypt/Israel a couple of days ago is making the northeastern Atlantic basin very interesting lately. https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/25/weather/ ... index.html

[Hammy]

Pablo's been a hurricane for at least the last 12 hours at this point, if not yesterday. I'm thinking it's probably 75kt at the moment.

[EquusStorm]

Reminds me a little of two of my favorite "weird" Atlantic 'canes Karl/Ivan 1980. Though it's still surprising to see a storm this strong at this location, seems like it's becoming more common. Or at least we're classifying things here better.

And, once more for y'all in the back row, what the hecking heck 2019

[HurricaneAndre2008]

ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* PABLO AL182019 10/27/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 71 69 67 61 61 58 56 53 50 47 46

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Hurricane PABLO
As of 18:00 UTC Oct 27, 2019:

Location: 44.1°N 17.4°W
Maximum Winds: 70 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 977 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 300 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 10 NM

[DeanS910]

About time that the ATCF file recognizes this as a hurricane. With 1800Z pegging it at 70 kt and satellite estimates having reached higher than that while the presentation was at its best this morning, I think its quite possible that Pablo attained 75 kt at ~1200Z. It's probably already been a hurricane for a good 12 hours or so by now. Quite an impressive little storm for having intensified into a hurricane in this region of the Atlantic. We can thank atmospheric instability for that.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019
500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

Pablo continues to have a remarkably impressive appearance for a
tropical cyclone over such cold waters. The hurricane's eye remains
evident in most satellite imagery channels, with a solid ring of
cloud tops colder than 50C surrounding it. This maintenance of the
deep convection can be attributed to an environment of very cold
temperatures aloft, which can allow for the hurricane to remain
intact over waters colder than those typically observed. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains unchanged
from 6 hours ago, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have
increased slightly. The initial advisory intensity has been
increased to 70 kt, and this could be a little conservative.

There are strong low-level easterlies associated with a baroclinic
zone and frontal boundary located a couple hundred miles north of
Pablo. The hurricane is expected to begin interacting with this zone
soon, which combined with even cooler waters should make the cyclone
lose its tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours. The
system is then expected to become absorbed by the circulation of a
much larger low as it approaches from the west in a couple of days.

The initial motion is now 020/20 kt. There is significant spread in
the model guidance beyond 24 hours, as the ECMWF and UKMET turn the
post-tropical cyclone to the northeast, while the remainder of the
guidance turns it northwest. The official forecast follows the
majority of the guidance and the previous forecast. In this
scenario, Pablo is expected to turn northward and slow its forward
motion tonight as it approaches the frontal zone. Then, a turn
toward the northwest on Monday is expected as the larger low to its
west begins to steer the cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 44.7N 17.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 46.5N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 47.7N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 29/0600Z 49.0N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

[Sciencerocks]