BOB: BULBUL (Matmo) - Deep Depression

[Nancy Smar]

98W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.10N.138.3E.

[Hayabusa]

It finally got tagged

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 250600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 03N 136E WEST SLOWLY.

[aspen]

It doesn’t look like 98W (eventually to be Matmo) will become anything significant before making landfall in the Philippines by Sunday. However, it could become at least a strong TS or a weak typhoon after emerging into the South China Sea by late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

[dexterlabio]

Now we watch if it tries to do anything crazy in just a matter of hours

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/aN1Hw1t
ens think ramp up in the scs.

[Hayabusa]

It's in a low shear environment why it has trouble consolidating?

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZOCT2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N
127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 98 NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 270106Z MHS METOP-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS NO INDICATION OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MINIMAL OVERHEAD CONVECTION. A 270033Z METOP-
C ASCAT PARTIAL PASS DEPICTS SIGNS OF A WEAK, ELONGATED LLC WITH A
COUPLE ISOLATED 15 KNOT WIND BARBS. 98W IS CURRENTLY IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOT), AND WARM (28 TO 29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY LAND INTERACTION
WITH THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
98W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AFTER CROSSING
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

med

ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZOCT2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 127.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 117.7E, APPROXIMATELY 89
NM SOUTHWEST OF PUERTA PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 280111Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, SHOWS VERY LITTLE INDICATION OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
AND MINIMAL OVERHEAD CONVECTION. 98W IS CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOT), AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL
TRACK WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AFTER CROSSING INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 280600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 119E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

TD
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 28 October 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 28 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N11°35' (11.6°)
E116°25' (116.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 282130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6N 118.1E TO 12.5N 112.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 117.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.2N 118.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 117.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PALAWAN, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. A
281806Z ATMS IMAGE HIGHLIGHTS THE SAME AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST OF A POORLY DEFINED LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVELS ON
EIR AND LOW RESOLUTION OF THE RECENT USABLE MICROWAVE IMAGES. A
281253Z ASCAT-C PASS TO THE EAST OF THIS CIRCULATION SHOWS 15 KNOTS
NEAR THE CIRCULATION, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL ESTIMATE OF 18 TO 23
KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DECENT OUTFLOW ON
THE WESTERN SIDE. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER, ALL MODELS
SIGNIFICANTLY FAVOR STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CIRCULATION THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE-CYCLE DUE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND 25 KNOT WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST
TO FULLY WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM FOR 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292130Z.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Well-defined circulation center on the latest ASCAT pass this morning, and it appears that 25-30kt winds coming from the north are starting to wrap into the circulation.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

This finally got named despite not living up to the GFS hype in the earlier runs, it had favorable environment when it was still over the Philippine Sea and far away from landmass but it didn't develop, it only developed to a named storm where >= 15kt shear is already surrounding this system

TS 1922 (Matmo)
Issued at 18:55 UTC, 29 October 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 29 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°30' (13.5°)
E112°55' (112.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NW 330 km (180 NM)
SE 220 km (120 NM)

[Hayabusa]

23W TWENTYTHRE 191029 1800 12.6N 112.7E WPAC 25 1001

[doomhaMwx]

Strengthened fairly quickly. Now a STS by JMA.

STS 1922 (Matmo)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 30 October 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 30 October>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°10' (13.2°)
E110°40' (110.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 480 km (260 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/dLSSwO0
loop x 8hr

[aspen]

Some of the latest model runs (especially the Euro, which has been quite aggressive recently) suggest the possibility of Matmo’s remnants emerging into the Bay of Bengal and redeveloping into a tropical cyclone. If this does turn out to become a reality, there’s a chance it could become another strong system, because SSTs in the BoB are far higher (30-31 C) than those in the majority of the Arabian Sea (27-28 C).