ATL: REBEKAH - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

99L INVEST 191028 0600 41.2N 39.5W ATL 65 965

[HurricaneRyan]

Imagine if we get Rebekah

[EquusStorm]

You don't see a 65kt/965mb Invest very often, lol.

Super impressive looking all day. Would be cool if it transitioned.



Though half the storms this year were pitiful, one more named storm would tie us with 2017, which is something I doubt anyone seriously expected this year.

[EquusStorm]

Looking pretty good this morning...

[AnnularCane]

Pablo's little sister?

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred
miles west-northwest of the Azores continues to produce a large
area of gale to hurricane-force winds. The low could gradually
acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next few days
while it moves slowly southward to southeastward over slightly
warmer water. Environmental conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for any further development by Thursday night when
the low is forecast to move back over colder water. For more
information of this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

Forecaster Brown

[EquusStorm]

Welp... here we go again?

Up to 20/30 but that's probably conservative if this convection holds.

[HurricaneRyan]

I want this to develop, simply to see Rebekah for the very first time.

[EquusStorm]

Convection has died off this morning, but still a couple of days left to transition.

[HurricaneEnzo]

It was trying to wrap some convection around the center earlier but just couldn't get it done. I don't think this is gonna pull a Pablo but I guess it still has time.

[Sciencerocks]

[Monsoonjr99]

Even further north than where Pablo formed. It makes sense that this is struggling over ice cold SSTs. It is impressive that this is even trying though; instability must be quite high up there this year.

[Sciencerocks]

I got to say that a solid case could be made for subtropical storm.

[tolakram]

Not a lot of convection, and nothing sustained for a very long time in my opinion.

[northjaxpro]

Invest 99L is looking a bit better late this evening as some convection is beginning to pop again around the LLC as the system is drifting to the southwest currently into a bit warmer sea surface temperatures. It looks appreciably better on IR imagery late this evening. There is about a 36 hour window for 99L to possibly transition into one more potential named system before we close out October, more likely in this case into a subtropical cyclone as it drifts a bit farther southward during the next 24 hours.

I called for 5 named storms to develop in the North Atlantic basin this month and it may happen. It will be close...

[TallyTracker]

If the current convection can sustain itself, I see no reason why this couldn’t be classified as STS Rebekah by 5 pm. Maybe 11 am, but my guess the NHC would want to see the convection sustained for at least 12 hours before pulling the trigger.

[tolakram]

SLIDER

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=5&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=15830.0322265625&y=3500.934326171875

[tolakram]

Might be making a run at fully tropical. A much different look than yesterday.

[tolakram]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system
located several hundred miles west of the westernmost Azores has
become better organized this morning. Some additional development is
possible and it could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone later
today or tonight. The system will likely move over colder waters on
Thursday and further development is unlikely after that time. The
low is producing gale-force winds and these winds are forecast to
continue today, regardless of development. For more information on
this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.

Forecaster Zelinsky

[wxman57]

I'm updating my seasonal forecast to about 55 named storms (by the end of winter) if every occluded low develops convection near the center and is named...

Pablo and this storm-to-be remind me of the Perfect storm of 1991 that occurred around this time of year.