NIO: KYARR - Cyclonic Storm

[ElectricStorm]

May give it another shot at Cat 5 if it completes it quickly.

[Tailspin]

Could be a Gonu challenger

That was a vgood call @ the time.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/04A-list.txt
2019OCT27 011500 7.0 921.4 140.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.54 -77.46 EYE 22 IR 76.6 17.12 -68.09 ARCHER MSG1 36.4
2019OCT27 014500 7.0 921.5 140.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 16.28 -76.55 EYE 23 IR 76.6 17.09 -68.06 ARCHER MSG1 36.3
2019OCT27 021500 7.0 922.5 140.0 7.0 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.87 -76.33 EYE 25 IR 76.6 17.17 -67.95 ARCHER MSG1 36.3
2019OCT27 024500 7.0 922.5 140.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 18.40 -75.48 EYE 25 IR 76.6 17.19 -67.90 ARCHER MSG1 36.2
2019OCT27 031500 7.0 922.5 140.0 6.9 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 17.34 -75.25 EYE 23 IR 76.6 17.23 -67.87 ARCHER MSG1 36.2
2019OCT27 034500 7.0 922.4 140.0 6.8 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 17.74 -74.87 EYE 26 IR 76.6 17.28 -67.76 ARCHER MSG1 36.2
2019OCT27 041500 7.0 922.4 140.0 6.8 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 17.34 -73.88 EYE 24 IR 76.6 17.29 -67.71 ARCHER MSG1 36.1
2019OCT27 044500 7.0 922.4 140.0 6.7 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 16.01 -73.18 EYE 25 IR 76.6 17.31 -67.63 ARCHER MSG1 36.1
2019OCT27 051500 7.0 922.4 140.0 6.7 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF 15.74 -72.65 EYE 25 IR 76.6 17.33 -67.52 ARCHER MSG1 36.0
2019OCT27 054500 7.0 922.4 140.0 6.6 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF 15.34 -72.01 EYE 24 IR 76.6 17.32 -67.47 ARCHER MSG1 35.9
2019OCT27 061500 7.0 922.4 140.0 6.6 6.5 6.5 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF 16.81 -71.93 EYE 26 IR 76.6 17.31 -67.39 ARCHER MSG1 35.8
2019OCT27 064500 7.0 922.4 140.0 6.6 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF 16.68 -72.62 EYE 27 IR 76.6 17.33 -67.33 ARCHER MSG1 35.8
2019OCT27 071500 7.0 923.7 140.0 6.5 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 18.53 -72.97 EYE 27 IR 76.6 17.34 -67.28 ARCHER MSG1 35.8
2019OCT27 074500 7.0 923.7 140.0 6.5 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 18.40 -72.51 EYE 26 IR 76.6 17.36 -67.19 ARCHER MSG1 35.7

https://imgur.com/wfmAPCp

[mrbagyo]

Another ERC?

[aspen]

Another ERC?

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/IO/04A.KYARR/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/20191027.2317.f16.x.91h.04AKYARR.130kts-928mb-179N-662E.058pc.jpg

Maybe, or it’s the one that’s still going on, or maybe this was more of an “eyewall meld” like with Irma.

[aspen]

It looks like the first EWRC completed and the second outer eyewall seen last night failed to take hold. It’s possible we could see additional strengthening today, but there seems to be a bit of a gap in the newly established eyewall, which could leave Kyarr vulnerable to dry air.

[Highteeld]

[aspen]

Microwave imagery shows a broken main eyewall and a partial secondary trying to form. On infrared, Kyarr’s eye is gone and the CDO is horrendous. I think it may be down to Cat 2 status by now.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1189023495281242112

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/Indiametdept/status/1189399502316167169

[wxman57]

Looks quite pathetic now. Maybe 40-45 kts. Falling apart.

Let me edit that intensity estimate. A recent microwave shows the center well-separated from dissipating convection. Maybe 30-35 kts. JTWC is saying 90 kts, while IMD says 73 kts (135 kph). Both are way too high.

[aspen]

Looks quite pathetic now. Maybe 40-45 kts. Falling apart.

Let me edit that intensity estimate. A recent microwave shows the center well-separated from dissipating convection. Maybe 30-35 kts. JTWC is saying 90 kts, while IMD says 73 kts (135 kph). Both are way too high.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Kyarr falls apart completely by tonight. SSTs don’t seem to be sufficient enough to keep the storm going beyond this. 90 kt is such a ridiculous overestimate compared to its underestimated peak of 135 kt.

[wxman57]

At the time of this ScatSat, IMD had Kyarr at 70 kts and JTWC at 65 kts. Uh, nope! More like 35 kts max. Maha is stronger. What are they looking at?

[doomhaMwx]

The remnants of Kyarr are still producing deep convection as it passes near/over Yemen's Socotra island. The system could be bringing, or could've brought heavy rainfall to the island. Heavy rainfall may also affect the northern parts of Somalia during the next couple of days or so as the remnants continue to track southwestward.

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1189926632066342919