Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Any idea when this flipping heat and humidity will let up? Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's?

Well, you know the drill. It is the same ole story around here each and every Fall and Winter season. I just looked at the forecast teleconnections indices, and the dreaded + NAO will be back in control for much of November, at least through the first half of the month I have just about given up on having any sensible cool weather each Fall season. It really is ridiculous, especially for cool weather fans like myself....

[canes92]

This graph confirms what I've experienced anecdotally over my last 40+ years in Florida

https://twitter.com/FLClimateCenter/status/1189558754381107200

What could be causing this?

[boca]

I heard on social media that winter is cancelled South of a Ft Pierce to Sarasota line until further notice. It will also be August until further notice.

[psyclone]

Upper 70's for a high here tomorrow. I am excited for this. We can add October 2019 to February and September 2018 as all time hottest months. We've had some exceptional warmth, especially since the 2015 super nino...that seems to be when things went off the rails.

[northjaxpro]

Since 2011, the state as a whole as not experienced a true -NAO during the winter season period. I have said this repeatedly during my years here on Storm2K as a memeber, but this particular fact is one of the most extraordinary things I have seen in my years in this business. It is amazing we have gone such a long period of time without a bonafide negative NAO during winter, basically a whole decade!

[psyclone]

And I've had one light freeze in a whole decade. The flora is responding accordingly. The daily highs have certainly been warm in October but the hero of the heat show has been the lows and the dewpoints...both of which have been off the scale insane. Tampa registered a low of 78 on 10-31! That would be above normal in the hottest part of summer.

[gatorcane]

I have a feeling it will eventually get really cold across Florida at some point this winter. One clue might be the fact that this year is the first year since 2014 where the Bermuda High wasn’t as strong in the summer and fall months. That might just mean something going into the freeze season for Florida which is right around the corner.

[psyclone]

KTLH has gone from the upper 80's to the upper 50's in 5 hours. That's a nice front finally and it's on a line from lake city to cedar key chugging eastward. should cross my area around midnight and I'm looking forward to the change..

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ECMWF finally showing a real nice cooldown for the entire state in 8-9 days. Let's hope it holds!

[psyclone]

With the great lakes and ohio valley expected to be below to much below normal...we are highly likely to get some pushes of cool air in the first half of November.

[northjaxpro]

Set an all time record high not only for today's date on Halloween at the NWS Jax WFO, The tenperature reached 91 degrees, shattering the old record of 86 degrees for this date.

Also, today's record high of 91 degrees is the latest day recorded with temperature of 90 degrees or higher ever at the Jacksonville NWS WFO.

This is just insane. I am so sick of this heat. I feel like throwing a party when this cool front finally comes in and puts an end to this nonsense from Mother Nature. Forecast calling gor highs in the upper 60s tomorrow here and mid to upper 60s Saturday as the flow becomes onshore!!! Lows near 50 on Sunday morning!!

[northjaxpro]

With the great lakes and ohio valley expected to be below to much below normal...we are highly likely to get some pushes of cool air in the first half of November.

I hope you are right Psyclone. However, the forecast is for the NAO to go positive by mid November. If that is the case, then maybe we could get the PNA to go positive to help offset the + NAO to bring cool air down into the Eastern and Southeastern CONUS. We will see as time progresses.

[psyclone]

Yeah we might just get grazed...but that would likely translate to some pretty nice weather. November is typically a gem of a month

[Patrick99]

For me, the big thing I've noticed is when we DO get chilly, over the past decade we tend to transition back to the warm subtropical ridge-regime at very fast speed. I could swear it never used to be like that in December-February. A cold front would pass, we'd get a night or two of chilly temps, and then it would be a slow transition back to seasonal warmth, like high temps in the upper 70s, lows in the mid 60s.

These days, fronts pass, we barely break 60 here in Miami to begin with, and almost immediately, a subtropical ridge regains control, bringing temps and humidity levels that never really were the norm for us in winter. AC wasn't nearly as necessary December-February as it is now.

I have no science to back it up, but I am guessing that at least for the urban core of Miami, we've passed a tipping point with the urban heat island effect, where it's just not going to be able to stay cool here unless we get some historic storm system like January 2010.

[northjaxpro]

It is a GLORIOUS 48.2 degrees here at the home station currently. FINALLY some crisp Autumn cool air has arrived in Northeast Florida. This is what it should be like on November 1. Brisk north winds at 15-20 mph are adding a bit of a bite to the chill as well.

I checked the obs out in the Panhandle and they all were in the mid to upper 30s this morning, with Crestview, of course, being the coldest at 34 degrees.

Well, at least for now, we can kiss goodbye that ridiculous record heat we had here from yesterday and just flat out enjoy this cool weather , just in time for the Florida-Georgia game and festivities this weekend here.

Max temps will only top out in the mid-upper 60s today and tomorrow. Lows well down into the 40s both tomorrow and Sunday morning.

[psyclone]

Wow does it feel nice out. Finally!

[gatorcane]

South Florida still holding on to the upper 80s with a couple of 90F readings. There is a 42F temp difference between the panhandle and South Florida!

This is a good link for looking at statewide temps:

http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/cu ... mperature/

[Patrick99]

Yeah, it is hot right now. Not just a little warm, full on summer-hot. Even looks like a little seabreeze convergence trying to set up, it wouldn't surprise me if we wring out a shower in a bit.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z ECMWF showed a very nice cold front coming in by 192 hours.

[boca]

The NAO should be positive by than which should negate the cold front that the Euro is showing at 192 hrs. We need the NAO to stay negative like it did most of spring and all of summer when we really didn’t have any use for it. Now when we need it it going positive :grr