WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

99W INVEST 191030 1200 5.0N 170.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

Could become Halong but models currently want to recurve it from an incoming trough

[Nancy Smar]

Could be a weak TS.

[aspen]

We could see a moderate typhoon come out of this, depending on how soon the recurvature happens. Sooner, and 99W will move out of warm SSTs quicker.

[Hayabusa]

[mrbagyo]

Most NWP guidance models recurve this out to sea - Fish storm.

Idk, the ridge to the north looks pretty strong at the moment.

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/Dcpf0Ok

Huge break in the ridge will come with that trough thinks EC .Likely it will also bring snow over north JP.

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZOCT2019-010600ZNOV2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301951ZOCT2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N
166.5E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS. A
310345Z F-15 SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LINE OF DEEP
CONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST. A 302202Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
SHOWS THE VERY WEAK, BROAD LLC SURROUNDED BY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS.
99W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING
OFFSET BY 20 TO 25 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING
TO WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 310600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 310600.
WARNING VALID 010600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 08N 165E WNW 10 KT.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro stronger possibly typhoon

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 010000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 010000.
WARNING VALID 020000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 08N 164E WNW 10 KT.

[Hayabusa]

med

ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZNOV2019//
RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 166.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 163.4E, APPROXIMATELY 202 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF UJELANG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY 010051Z GMI 89/37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES, SHOWS A WEAK, ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING EXTENDING SOUTH. A 311045Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS A SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTH OF AN OBLONG, ILL-DEFINED LLCC. 99W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING, REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[aspen]

99W is looking very healthy this morning, with consistent flaring convection and some good outflow. If this organization continues, we could see a tropical depression form later today.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

That's one big invest.

[ManilaTC]

Should be a TD already just by the satellite signature

[Nancy Smar]

WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA

AT 11.4N 159.3E MARSHALLS MOVING NW 15 KNOTS.

POSITION POOR.

MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Nancy Smar]

Although a 2230UTC ASCAT-C imagery shows some 35-40kt vectors, this system still lacks a closed circulation center.

[Nancy Smar]

WTPN21 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 158.6E TO 16.0N 153.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 157.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N
159.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 157.8E, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
NORTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG
WITH A 020645Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS BUILDING DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) SURROUNDED BY FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION. 99W IS CURRENTLY IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030900Z.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

TD
Issued at 12:55 UTC, 2 November 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 2 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°10' (13.2°)
E157°40' (157.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)