Florida Weather

[HurricaneBelle]

Temp/DP of 83/68 right now is better than 91/76 yesterday but isn't quite open-the-windows cool. Maybe tomorrow and/or Sunday.

[northjaxpro]

Cold front at 15Z earlier today was approaching Lake Okeechobee. Currently , looking at 2:00 p.m. obs, the front is now just south along a line from Fort Myers to West Palm Beach., where wind shifted from the north at both obs this past hour.

[TheStormExpert]

Shouldn’t make it much further south.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Shouldn’t make it much further south.

That's correct. The front will eventually go stationary as a shortwave from the Great Lakes will bring a zonal flow over the region, and thus a weak Low Pressure area will form along the stalled frontal boundary somewhere off the Space Coast region near Melbourne/ Cape Canaveral area later tonight into early Saturday. This will actually create a bit of an overrunning /isentropic lift event across East Central and Northeast Florida and the coastal areas late tonight into Saturday as the Weak Low Pressure develops and initially drifts north, then eventually northeast over the Atlantic by Saturday afternoon. As a matter of fact, clouds have come back in across the Jax area with overcast conditions currently, and winds here have already shifted to the northeast. This is actually going to bring us a slight chance of light rain later tonight into Saturday morning in the Jax area. Hopefully this will move out by the start time of the Florida-Georgia game tomorrow afternoon.

[NDG]

The NAO looks to stay near neutral & PNA mostly negative so I am disregarding any models that show a strong front coming through central & southern FL in their not so good medium to long range forecast.

When I was 15 I spent a month during the summer in Miami in the mid 1980s, I remember back then watching the 11 pm news showing temps 81-82 F at the highest even with a breeze off of the warm Gulf Stream, now days in the summer at that time is at least in the mid 80s in Miami.
Now royal palms grow in Orlando without a problem, mature ones made it through the 2010 winter without a problem.

[gatorcane]

The NAO looks to stay near neutral & PNA mostly negative so I am disregarding any models that show a strong front coming through central & southern FL in their not so good medium to long range forecast.

When I was 15 I spent a month during the summer in Miami in the mid 1980s, I remember back then watching the 11 pm news showing temps 81-82 F at the highest even with a breeze off of the warm Gulf Stream, now days in the summer at that time is at least in the mid 80s in Miami.
Now royal palms grow in Orlando without a problem, mature ones made it through the 2010 winter without a problem.

Eventually though Central Florida will get hit with a serious freeze looking at history. I don’t think the climate has changed enough to avoid this and that will likely damage much of the tropicals that are growing there...just like Miami (and really SE Florida in general) will eventually take a direct hit from a major hurricane which it has somehow avoided for a long time.

[psyclone]

I agree we will get blasted at some point with a big freeze...but for some areas an ever expanding UHI thanks to development adds yet another protective layer..Return frequency of such events seems to be decreasing. 70's, 80's and 90's all featured big freezing events. they seem to be decreasing since then...but 2010 did happen.. Nice to see a mid latitude looking sky today with lots of midlevel clouds...a sharp contrast from the tropical, convective looking skies we had and it feels great here with lows 70's temps and mid 60's dews...that's more like it

[NDG]

The NAO looks to stay near neutral & PNA mostly negative so I am disregarding any models that show a strong front coming through central & southern FL in their not so good medium to long range forecast.

When I was 15 I spent a month during the summer in Miami in the mid 1980s, I remember back then watching the 11 pm news showing temps 81-82 F at the highest even with a breeze off of the warm Gulf Stream, now days in the summer at that time is at least in the mid 80s in Miami.
Now royal palms grow in Orlando without a problem, mature ones made it through the 2010 winter without a problem.

Eventually though Central Florida will get hit with a serious freeze looking at history. I don’t think the climate has changed enough to avoid this and that will likely damage much of the tropicals that are growing there...just like Miami (and really SE Florida in general) will eventually take a direct hit from a major hurricane which it has somehow avoided for a long time.

If it didn't happened in 2010 is not going to happen any time soon. The last true damaging freeze that central FL had was in the 80s during the end of the last global mini ice age. Back in 2010 which many locations had the coldest December in records with low temps down to the mid 20s the damage to tropical plants was to the young ones, mature ones like my neighbors mangoes and royal palm trees were not killed only damaged.
SE FL has a higher chance getting hit by a MH than us getting hit by a damaging freeze like in the 80s. IMO.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ECMWF still showing a decent cold front passing through next Saturday, even more strongly showing it than the GFS.

[psyclone]

ECMWF still showing a decent cold front passing through next Saturday, even more strongly showing it than the GFS.

That front is now being reflected at the end of the current forecast period Friday with cooler temps and showers. Let's reel this one in! The return to above normal temps will be less objectionable around the bay area with mid 80's for highs and low 70's...much better than the previous low 90's/upper 70's. The great seasonal step down is finally here...very late but not denied

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Too bad it'll never in a million years verify but check out the 12z GFS 2m temperatures for Florida by 264 hours... freezing temperatures all the way as far south as Tampa.

[TheStormExpert]

Too bad it'll never in a million years verify but check out the 12z GFS 2m temperatures for Florida by 264 hours... freezing temperatures all the way as far south as Tampa.

The GFS is nuts! Too bad the NAO will be positive around that time.

[NDG]

ECMWF still showing a decent cold front passing through next Saturday, even more strongly showing it than the GFS.

It keeps the core of the cold air well to the north of FL with the winds come off the Atlantic right away, it will just bring down the humidity and temps closer to average.

[psyclone]

I would feel very ripped off if we went right from summer heat to cold. To me the shoulder seasons where it's pleasantly warm represents the peak of florida weather...and we were deprived of that in October. I'm hoping for several weeks of nice weather before any potential digging around for a hoodie. Of course the GFS is notorious for false alarms wrt cold so that's probably not happening...but some pleasantly cool nights would be nice...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Temps so far are warmer in my area than I think we were expecting, high of 82F forecasted and we're sitting in the mid-to-upper 80s right now. I'm almost certain I won't get below 60F tonight

[gatorcane]

Too bad it'll never in a million years verify but check out the 12z GFS 2m temperatures for Florida by 264 hours... freezing temperatures all the way as far south as Tampa.

The GFS is nuts! Too bad the NAO will be positive around that time.

Wow what is the GFS thinking!?! It’s not even Thanksgiving yet

[psyclone]

there's a very tight temp gradient over FL yet again. 66 in Gainesville and 86 in Winter Haven. Tough forecast. bay area running a bit higher than expected. 82/70 @ KTPA... still feels nice relative to what we've been experiencing in recent weeks...but Fall it is not..

[gatorcane]

The 18Z GFS is still showing the epic cold front for Florida that would likely set records.

[psyclone]

That's because that's what the GFS does.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The 18Z GFS is still showing the epic cold front for Florida that would likely set records.

That entire front looks like it would set records across the eastern USA.