ARABIAN SEA: MAHA - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

99B INVEST 191026 0600 7.4N 87.0E IO 15 0

[doomhaMwx]

99B INVEST 191028 0600 5.2N 80.7E IO 15 1009

[doomhaMwx]

This could become a tropical storm over the southeastern Arabian Sea on the next few days.



IMD:

THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL
OFF SRI LANKA COAST NOW LIES ASLOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST
BAY OF BENGAL OFF SOUTH SRILANKA COAST. ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCUATION EXTENDS UPTO MIDTROPOSPHERIC LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BECOME MORE MARKED OVER COMORIN AREA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD DURING
NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND ADJOINING LAKSHADWEEP MALDIVES AREAS
DURING THE SUBSEQUENT 48 HOURS (.)

[doomhaMwx]

ECMWF has been developing a cyclone (hurricane/typhoon intensity) from this for how many runs now, and the latest(00Z) run is even more aggressive.
GFS now showing a cyclone as well. HWRF has a cat 4.

Another powerful Arabian Sea cyclone just after Kyarr?

[doomhaMwx]

Now a TS by JTWC. The latest ASCAT pass supports this.

05A FIVE 191030 0600 8.8N 74.8E IO 35 1005

[doomhaMwx]

[aspen]

Winds are up to 45 kt, which is stronger I expected for today. Still, I don’t anticipate this becoming anything near the intensity of Kyarr, because SSTs and OHCs are rather low within the Arabian Sea.

[Nancy Smar]

(A) Deep Depression intensified into Cyclonic Storm MAHA (Pronounced as
M’maha) over Lakshadweep and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea & Maldives
area: CYCLONE WARNING FOR LAKSHADWEEP ISLANDS (ORANGE
MESSAGE)

FKIN21 DEMS 301525
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20191030 /1200Z
TC: MAHA
NR: 01
PSN: N0900 E07406
MOV: NW13KT
C: 0998HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 30/1800Z N1000 E07330
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 040 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 31/0000Z N1054 E07254
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 045KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 31/0600Z N1154 E07224
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 050KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 31/1200Z N1254 E07148
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 55KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20191030 /2030Z
TOO: 302050 HRS IST

[aspen]

An eye has formed and Maha is up to 80 kt per best track. It may be starting rapid intensification.

[TorSkk]

Maha has intensified into the fifth Very Severe Cyclonic Storm of the season, a record high number

[aspen]

18z best track intensity up to 95 kt, a high end Category 2 equivalent system.

[Astromanía]

I wonder what are the conditions that caused this high activity this season on this basin

[mrbagyo]

I wonder what are the conditions that caused this high activity this season on this basin

Strong Indian Ocean Dipole -

[doomhaMwx]

Cyclone Maha has become a powerful category 3 cyclone (extremely severe cyclonic storm by IMD) over the central Arabian Sea.






However, the system has little time left to strengthen further as it will soon be moving over colder waters which were upwelled by the recent powerful Cyclone Kyarr. Additionally, the upper-level environment is forecast to deteriorate as the cyclone turns ENE.

[doomhaMwx]

Now unraveling.

[wxman57]

This one is history...

[doomhaMwx]

Naked swirl.