WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#161 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:12 am

Hello Yutu

2019NOV05 114000 7.6 896.1 158.0 7.6 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.81 -81.56 EYE 20 IR 77.7 19.90 -150.79 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#162 Postby mario_zxn » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:17 am

2019NOV05 114000 7.6 896.1 158.0 7.6 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.81 -81.56 EYE 20 IR 77.7 19.90 -150.79 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0
my god...
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#163 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:18 am

Hayabusa wrote:Hello Yutu

2019NOV05 114000 7.6 896.1 158.0 7.6 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.81 -81.56 EYE 20 IR 77.7 19.90 -150.79 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0


This is even better looking than Yutu. I think 160 kt might be a good estimate at this point...it completely maxed out the AVN filter.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#164 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:33 am

:lol:

TPPN11 PGTW 051202

A. TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1140Z

C. 19.87N

D. 150.78E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. MET YIELDS 6.5, PT YIELDS 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RHOADES
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#165 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:36 am

Hayabusa wrote::lol:

TPPN11 PGTW 051202

A. TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1140Z

C. 19.87N

D. 150.78E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. MET YIELDS 6.5, PT YIELDS 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RHOADES


Imagine if the JTWC goes with the standard T#7.0 estimate :lol:
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#166 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:42 am

2019NOV05 121000 7.7 892.9 161.0 7.7 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.16 -81.59 EYE 18 IR 77.7 19.93 -150.79 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#167 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:42 am

Officially the strongest worldwide this 2019 and strongest since Yutu

TY 1923 (Halong)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 5 November 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 5 November>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N19°55' (19.9°)
E150°50' (150.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#168 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:48 am

This is just crazy...Halong’s >20 C eye keeps becoming more compact as the CDO expands. I think there are some mesovortecies in the eye too.
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#169 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:48 am

Halong just snatched the 2019 title from Dorian
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#170 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:48 am

24W HALONG 191105 1200 19.9N 150.8E WPAC 140 916
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#171 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:49 am

aspen wrote:This is just crazy...Halong’s >20 C eye keeps becoming more compact as the CDO expands. I think there are some mesovortecies in the eye too.


About to post that, there surely is and it's messing up with the eye temp reading
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#172 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:52 am

Hayabusa wrote:24W HALONG 191105 1200 19.9N 150.8E WPAC 140 916


.......should I even be surprised at this point?
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#173 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:54 am

aspen wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:24W HALONG 191105 1200 19.9N 150.8E WPAC 140 916


.......should I even be surprised at this point?


It's alright JMA came to the rescue and it's official! :lol:
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#174 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Nov 05, 2019 7:55 am

aspen wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:24W HALONG 191105 1200 19.9N 150.8E WPAC 140 916


.......should I even be surprised at this point?


Gawd, JTWC is so "generous" - it should be 135 :lol:
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#175 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:05 am

Is the JTWC even trying this year? Hagibis, Bualoi, Kyarr, and now Halong — they’re outright ignoring most satellite estimates or follow them too closely. I’ve never seen a streak of storms they’ve underestimated this badly. Is T#7.7 with a >20 C eye and almost a full ring of CDG not enough for anything above the standard 140 kt?
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#176 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:12 am

2019NOV05 124000 7.7 892.8 161.0 7.7 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.61 -81.64 EYE 17 IR 77.7 19.97 -150.74 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#177 Postby Hayabusa » Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:17 am

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#178 Postby Highteeld » Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:18 am


attempting a t 8.0 i see
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#179 Postby Highteeld » Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:20 am

according to some of the data i have collected, the delta for Halong is the 5th strongest ever recorded by adt for all cat 5's going back to 2003 (102.37)
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https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
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Re: WPAC: HALONG - Typhoon

#180 Postby aspen » Tue Nov 05, 2019 8:21 am



Looks like there are some more mesovortecies in the eye. While that seems to indicate more intensification, they’ll have to clear out if Halong really wants to get to T#8.0
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