WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

165 to 170 knots might be accurate at this point

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

2019NOV05 131000 7.8 894.2 164.0 7.8 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.69 -81.88 EYE 18 IR 77.7 20.00 -150.72 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0

[Hayabusa]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 11051044
SATCON: MSLP = 904 hPa MSW = 160 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 155.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 139 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 185 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 2.4 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 893 hPa 161 knots Scene: CDO Date: NOV051240
CIMSS AMSU: 913 hPa 147 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 11051044
ATMS: 934.9 hPa 118.0 knots Date: 11050300
SSMIS: 936.0 hPa 129.0 knots Date: 11050755
CIRA ATMS: 955 hPa 97 knots Date: 11050301

[aspen]

165 to 170 knots might be accurate at this point

https://i.imgur.com/sMWWg0s.png

I hope an EWRC holds off long enough for the JTWC to upgrade Halong accordingly.

[Highteeld]

Yoked like Hafthor Bjornsson

[Hayabusa]

[Highteeld]

CDG ring width requirements met for about 80% of the ring (eastern portion needs to thicken by about .25*)

[mrbagyo]

Eye temp has dropped to 17+ C but that's only because of the meso dancing inside the eye.

[Hayabusa]

2019NOV05 134000 7.8 894.2 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.03 -82.11 EYE 16 IR 77.7 20.03 -150.67 ARCHER HIM-8 26.0

[Hayabusa]

[aspen]

So close to T#8.0...

[Highteeld]

Not seeing as much obscuration in the eye in the last few frames. would expect eye temp to rebound shortly.

[Highteeld]

RRQ of the jet streak to the north may be helping out Halong, similar to what happened with Haiyan

[Hayabusa]

2019NOV05 141000 7.8 894.2 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.95 -82.50 EYE 17 IR 77.7 20.07 -150.67 ARCHER HIM-8 26.1

[Highteeld]

2019NOV05 141000 7.8 894.2 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.95 -82.50 EYE 17 IR 77.7 20.07 -150.67 ARCHER HIM-8 26.1

New peak delta of 102.45*C

[aspen]

2019NOV05 141000 7.8 894.2 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.95 -82.50 EYE 17 IR 77.7 20.07 -150.67 ARCHER HIM-8 26.1

The eye temp jumped up quite a bit to almost 20 C, and IR imagery shows more <-85 C flaring up. Maybe it can get to 170 kt in a few hours.

[1900hurricane]

Is the JTWC even trying this year? Hagibis, Bualoi, Kyarr, and now Halong — they’re outright ignoring most satellite estimates or follow them too closely. I’ve never seen a streak of storms they’ve underestimated this badly. Is T#7.7 with a >20 C eye and almost a full ring of CDG not enough for anything above the standard 140 kt?

They were doing so well with the early September storms like Lingling and Faxai too. It does feel like they've been sleepwalking a bit since Hagibis, which is strange. I think Hagibis was stronger than Halong is now, but this is up there for sure.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1191732308954484738

[TorSkk]

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 603 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 24W HAS AN 8 NM WIDE EYE, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. STY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS GRADUALLY ERODING THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST OF STY 24W. STY 24W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, STY 24W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. STY 24W WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TAU 12 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND SLOW TRACK MOTION OVER WATERS WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC).
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STY 24W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AT TAU 72 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. AFTER TAU 72, STY 24W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND COOLING SST DROPPING BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 315NM AT TAU 72 DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE. TRACK SPREAD FURTHER INCREASES PAST TAU 72 DUE ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//

Why are they disregarding satcon and other estinmates?