WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

2019NOV05 143000 7.8 894.2 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.92 -82.23 EYE 17 IR 77.7 20.09 -150.63 ARCHER HIM-8 26.1

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1191734917207605248

[1900hurricane]

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 603 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 24W HAS AN 8 NM WIDE EYE, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. STY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS GRADUALLY ERODING THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST OF STY 24W. STY 24W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, STY 24W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. STY 24W WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TAU 12 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND SLOW TRACK MOTION OVER WATERS WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC).
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STY 24W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AT TAU 72 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. AFTER TAU 72, STY 24W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND COOLING SST DROPPING BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 315NM AT TAU 72 DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE. TRACK SPREAD FURTHER INCREASES PAST TAU 72 DUE ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//

Why are they disregarding satcon and other estinmates?

It's puzzling how they even got the 7.0 DT that was not held down by constraints in the first place. JTWC's 1140Z fix did not even mention a complete CMG ring even when the eye was clearly embedded in the shade.

:lol:

TPPN11 PGTW 051202

A. TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1140Z

C. 19.87N

D. 150.78E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. MET YIELDS 6.5, PT YIELDS 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RHOADES

[Highteeld]

Eye temp looks well north of 20*C again

[aspen]

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 603 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 24W HAS AN 8 NM WIDE EYE, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. STY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS GRADUALLY ERODING THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST OF STY 24W. STY 24W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, STY 24W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. STY 24W WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TAU 12 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND SLOW TRACK MOTION OVER WATERS WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC).
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STY 24W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AT TAU 72 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. AFTER TAU 72, STY 24W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND COOLING SST DROPPING BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 315NM AT TAU 72 DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE. TRACK SPREAD FURTHER INCREASES PAST TAU 72 DUE ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//

Why are they disregarding satcon and other estinmates?

It’s the JTWC, they either follow some estimates religiously or ignore others. Still, I don’t know how on Earth they got T#7.0 from a T#7.8 storm.

[aspen]

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 603 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 24W HAS AN 8 NM WIDE EYE, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. STY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS GRADUALLY ERODING THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST OF STY 24W. STY 24W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, STY 24W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. STY 24W WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TAU 12 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND SLOW TRACK MOTION OVER WATERS WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC).
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STY 24W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AT TAU 72 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. AFTER TAU 72, STY 24W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND COOLING SST DROPPING BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 315NM AT TAU 72 DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE. TRACK SPREAD FURTHER INCREASES PAST TAU 72 DUE ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//

Why are they disregarding satcon and other estinmates?

It's puzzling how they even got the 7.0 DT that was not held down by constraints in the first place. JTWC's 1140Z fix did not even mention a complete CMG ring even when the eye was clearly embedded in the shade.

:lol:

TPPN11 PGTW 051202

A. TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1140Z

C. 19.87N

D. 150.78E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. MET YIELDS 6.5, PT YIELDS 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RHOADES

https://i.imgur.com/EdqcVb6.png

“Surrounded by W”....that’s called comedy.

[Highteeld]

Whoever "Rhoades" is, is doing some really weird stuff with the DT analysis

TPPN11 PGTW 051516

A. TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1450Z

C. 20.03N

D. 150.60E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET YIELDS 6.5, PT YIELDS 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RHOADES

[aspen]

Whoever "Rhoades" is, is doing some really weird stuff with the DT analysis

TPPN11 PGTW 051516

A. TYPHOON 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1450Z

C. 20.03N

D. 150.60E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET YIELDS 6.5, PT YIELDS 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RHOADES

Halong has never had a W ring; it’s been pulling consistent <-85 C convection for almost its entire life.

[Hayabusa]

2019NOV05 151000 7.8 894.2 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.79 -82.12 EYE 17 IR 77.7 20.10 -150.62 ARCHER HIM-8 26.1

[Hayabusa]

Maintains

TY 1923 (Halong)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 5 November 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 5 November>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N20°05' (20.1°)
E150°35' (150.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 280 km (150 NM)

[1900hurricane]

SAB's fix appears reasonable to me.

TXPQ24 KNES 051539
TCSWNP

A. 24W (HALONG)

B. 05/1430Z

C. 20.0N

D. 150.7E

E. ONE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. WMG
CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN CMG AND SURROUNDED BY CDG RESULTING IN A DT OF
7.5 WHICH INCLUDES AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF 1.0. DT AVERAGE IS 7.35 OVER 6
HRS. MET = 6.0 AND PT = 6.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[Hayabusa]

Why it won't at least go to CI 7.9?
2019NOV05 153000 7.8 894.2 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.74 -82.02 EYE 17 IR 77.7 20.16 -150.63 ARCHER HIM-8 26.2

[aspen]

Why it won't at least go to CI 7.9?
2019NOV05 153000 7.8 894.2 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.74 -82.02 EYE 17 IR 77.7 20.16 -150.63 ARCHER HIM-8 26.2

The eye seems to be getting clearer over the last hour, so maybe Halong with get to T#7.9 soon.

[Hayabusa]

Halong has made records on ADT v9.0, first TC having continuous raw 7.9 and CI beyond 7.5

[Hayabusa]

2019NOV05 161000 7.8 894.2 164.0 7.8 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.65 -81.86 EYE 17 IR 77.7 20.21 -150.61 ARCHER HIM-8 26.2

[Hayabusa]

2019NOV05 164000 7.8 894.2 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.66 -81.91 EYE 16 IR 77.7 20.23 -150.63 ARCHER HIM-8 26.2

[1900hurricane]

I'm rather curious to see the ATMS intensity estimate once it comes out shortly.

[Highteeld]

Looking a lot like Yutu right now

[aspen]

Looking a lot like Yutu right now

A bit like a Yutu 2018/Nuri 2014 hybrid IMO — slightly better than Yutu, but not as good as Nuri.

[Hayabusa]

2019NOV05 171000 7.8 894.1 164.0 7.8 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.97 -81.43 EYE 17 IR 77.7 20.31 -150.58 ARCHER HIM-8 26.3